The recent banking crises in the US and Switzerland have sparked concerns about the stability of the global financial system. However, these crises are unlikely to pose a broader threat. Despite this, lending standards are anticipated to tighten and inflation
The major developed economies, despite less wear than anticipated, are not necessarily on a steady path to recovery. In fact, their resilience might be leading to a slowdown rather than accelerating recovery. Inflation remains high, and monetary and financial tightening
The main theme of the text revolves around global trade recession, electric car pricing, German household savings, and German foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa. The focus then shifts to policy rate decisions in the US and Eurozone amid inflation
The text's main theme focuses on the relationship between real estate and the economy during periods of rising rates, discussing commercial and residential real estate prices, and their impact on GDP during past recessions. The analysis is based on the
The RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee highlights the resilience of the economy, pointing to the aggressive rise in interest rates in response to inflationary pressures. Despite this strength, they argue that the rapid increase in interest rates will likely push
In this short essay, we discuss the main theme of "A global assessment of the implications of recent banking sector developments." The text primarily focuses on the impact of recent banking sector developments on the global economy and central banks.
How Vulnerable is EM Debt to Volatility Spillovers? – Investment Insights This report discusses the recent shocks to the banking system and their impact on emerging market (EM) debt. The report provides insights into two types of EM debt: EM
The latest data on inflation has led to concerns about the economy, with some fearing that hot inflation and economic data could lead to an increased chance of recession, even if it takes longer than first expected. The Federal Reserve
Bank J. Safra Sarasin's investment committee cautions that despite robust economic conditions and strong labor and retail sales data, the risk of a US recession in the next 12 months remains high, forcing market participants to take a closer look
Equity markets rallied from the beginning of the year into early February, driven by encouraging data regarding the health of the U.S. economy and improved economic outlooks in China and Europe that were supported by the reopening of the Chinese
Recessions are painful, no doubt about it. But they are necessary to clean out the excesses of prior growth periods, especially the more or less uninterrupted growth investors have enjoyed over the past decade.
Monthly investment outlook Stock and bond markets continued to rally in January as falling energy prices, a reopening in China and hope for Fed rate cuts ahead drove optimism across asset classes. This optimism belies growing divergence between expectations implied
Natixis Investment Managers Solutions | Global Market Strategy: Given the resiliency shown by economic indicators, we rule out the risk for a severe recession both in the US and Europe. The outlook for a recession scenario has weakened thanks to
Last autumn, I thought we were on the verge of a significant recession across the major European economies. I expected real gross domestic product1 (GDP) to contract in the second half of 2022 and then fall in 2023 by 1-2%
As the risk of recession looms large over financial markets, how will securitised credit fare? It’s a growing area of bond markets that has become an important anchor of some actively managed, fixed income portfolios. Portfolio manager Xavier Goss discusses
Advanced Economies Outlook 2023 The outlook for 2023 is bleak. The multitude of crises have exposed the weaknesses of our economic system, culminating in record-high inflation across advanced economies. Though inflation is set to fall, there will be no early
The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. It was nice while it lasted. The tattered posters on the cover show the remnants of some equity market catalysts
A combination of sustained inflation and mounting recession fears, interlinked with the geopolitical situation, are the main drivers affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments. The bulk of the uncertainty is in the short to medium term. There is a
Investment Outlook for 2023: We have become accustomed to uncertain times. Nonetheless, 2022 was an extremely challenging year in financial markets. The investment rationale for the classic 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio is that it will deliver solid if
Institutionele beleggers* over de hele wereld gaan richting 2023 met een sombere kijk op de economie en gemengde vooruitzichten voor de markten. Ze verwachten volgend jaar nog hogere rente, inflatie en volatiliteit, zo blijkt uit onderzoek van Natixis Investment Managers
While recession risk is clearly elevated around the world, they are notoriously hard to predict with any accuracy, in terms of timing, duration or impact. Rather than forecasting exactly when global markets might fall into recession this time, the following
A rapid shift in the outlook for the global economy – punctuated by soaring inflation, Europe’s deepening woes and increasing fears of a worldwide recession – is having an enormous impact on currency markets. The US dollar has continued to climb
The investment lexicon is currently dominated by inflation and recession. But what could these terms – so readily used by investors and their advisors – actually …
Monthly investment outlook august 2022 Just as markets had to reprice a new interest rate regime in early-2022 amidst fading hopes for a transitory inflationary backdrop, they are now similarly beginning to recognise that the prospects of an economic soft
Riddles in the Dark Time, the answer to Gollum’s riddle, is to us a vaunted teacher. The first half of 2022 has been a turbulent one. In analysing ‘The Road Ahead’ from this point, our first port is the precedent
It Fooled You Once… Coming out of the annual Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, unsurprisingly, had a strong tone reinforcing the Fed’s intention to fight inflation at any cost, a 180-degree reversal of his ‘inflation is transient’
In this note, we provide some historical context to equity bear markets, explore the size of equity drawdowns during economic recessions and analyze the key factors driving the severity of equity drawdowns. Most importantly, we try to answer the question:
Beleggingsnota 2023 De trefwoorden vorig jaar in de Beleggingsnota 2022 waren: COVID-19, productieverstoringen, en “peak growth”. De inflatie begon al te stijgen, maar was nog relatief beperkt (2,2% in de eurozone en 5,4% in de VS), en werd voornamelijk als
The bar for monetary authorities to make a dovish pivot is quite high, as evidenced by recent statements by Chair Powell, et al. Even if there was a pivot later this year it would still imply a decent moderation in
How to Prep Your Portfolio for a Different Kind of Recession Risk: During the first half of 2022, global equity markets tumbled around 20% from their January peak, with losses on typical stock/ bond portfolios almost as large, as bonds
In this note, we provide some historical context to equity bear markets, explore the size of equity drawdowns during economic …
The slump in global equities deepened in the second quarter of 2022 as concerns about a recession replaced fears of high inflation and an escalation of the war in Ukraine seemed less likely. The US Federal Reserve has maintained its
Key Takeaways: The equity correction is likely over as recession is not 12 months away. Nominal growth remains extraordinarily high relative to Fed hawkishness. The US central bank remains “behind the curve” despite flagging 200bps of hikes by year end.
You know that recession narratives abound when Cardi B is tweeting “When y’all think they going to announce that we going into a recession?”1 Even more pronounced is the “stagflation” hysteria. Major investment banks are publishing stagflation primers… an institutional
The S&P 500 Index fell into bear market territory on Friday 20 May – defined as a 20% from its recent high – the first time since March 2020, when markets sold off over fears around the Covid-19 pandemic. But
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q2 2022 – The peak in global inflation is probably not far away, but there are several reasons to think that it will fall relatively slowly. Lockdowns in China have caused bottlenecks in global supply chains
The chance to see a positive resolution between Russia and Ukraine has continued to decline. Conversely, ongoing geopolitical tension appear to be the new reality – so market participants will just have to get used to it. Unlike in recent
The lead time of curve inversion to recession can be more than two years, so it’s not the best timing tool. However, what we do know with more certainty is the signaling that the economy is now firmly in the
Ukraine: where do we stand? The first month of the Russia-Ukraine war has driven volatility up across the board, though with some recent signs of stabilisation in equity markets. Europe is the area most exposed to the war – in
Clear insights into multi-asset investing, macro and research Key points As our multi-asset franchise, All Roads, reached its 10-year milestone, we applied the investment and research insights gained in the past decade to assess the prevailing risk of Q1 –
Gold has done amazingly well, considering the rise in US treasury yields. Geopolitical tensions and fears of inflation may be helping. But we suspect that without US recession it has further …
Last year was nothing if not remarkable. The coronavirus pandemic led to an implosion of economic activity before monetary and fiscal stimulus provided the foundation for a recovery unlike anything we have ever seen. From an economist’s perspective, one insight …
In September 2020 we published our long-term outlook (link). At that time we anticipated that the economic recovery in the eurozone would start in the second half of 2020 and that the rebound would continue into 2021. Unfortunately, after a strong economic recovery in the third quarter, many eurozone countries imposed new lockdown …
Investment Outlook 2021 2020 will likely go down as one of the most remarkable years in history: from an economic perspective, as Covid-19 brought the deepest recession since the 1930s, and from a public health and social viewpoint as well.
10 PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: MIDYEAR UPDATE THE RECESSION WAS LESS SEVERE AND THE RECOVERY HAS (SO FAR) BEEN QUICKER THAN MANY EXPECTED. There is no doubt that the economic downturn was incredibly deep and painful. According to the IMF, U.S.
Panorama Six months ago, as we discussed topics for our year-end edition of Panorama, our investment team debated the most …
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios This recession will forever be remembered as one of the most rapid and shocking economic slowdowns on record. The question at the forefront of asset allocation decisions is whether the recovery will be equally distinctive
We are now in the early stages of a downturn that will be more profound, in terms of economic and social magnitude, than the global financial crisis (GFC). Global growth is expected to experience a contraction five times what was
“All roads lead to gold.” Takeaways Monetary policy normalization has failed …
#20 – Top Five Best Read Research on OpinioPro And it’s Saturday again: the day for us to publish our Top Five Best Read on OpinioPro this last week. Populair tags were ‘asset allocation‘ and ‘equities‘, furthermore our event calendar
