Dual shocks from COVID-19 and falling oil prices have hit the global economy. The key concern now is that significant dislocation in financial markets ricochets back onto the real economy, raising risks for the outlook. At the margin, we see
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors. Risks: Impacts from COVID-19 may cause a global recession. Political headlines may foment market volatility. Earnings growth has slowed and could stall
Optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal, and data releases suggesting recent global industrial weakness may have bottomed, lifted risk assets in November. Major government bond markets sold off, with Italian government bonds and emerging market (EM) local currency debt particularly
We believe global growth will remain moderate in 2020 (coming in around 3.25% for the year, essentially maintaining the current rate of annualized growth in 2019), thereby mitigating the imbalances and vulnerabilities (e.g., increasing inflation, sharp increases in commodity prices)
Week Ahead The draft budgets of France, Italy and Spain for the coming year were (not unexpectedly) not well-received by the European Commission. Despite high debt ratios, none of the three countries plans to make any significant budgetary adjustment. Therefore,
A review of the week's top global economic and capital markets news. For the week ending 22 November 2019 As of noon on Friday, global equities are on pace to close modestly lower on the week. The yield on the
Equities rose for the sixth straight week, marking the longest streak in two years.1 Trade issues remained in focus, as investor optimism over the Phase One trade deal has been rising. Investors have also been focused on modest improvements in
After a weak Q4 so far for rates markets, the last week provided a reversal of this fortune with prices higher in most areas. It was big week for economic data releases. The European economy continues to stumble on, as
The big news item of the week was Germany’s third quarter GDP which rose 0.1%, narrowly missing a move into recessionary territory. Expectations were for a 0.1% drop and second quarter GDP was revised down to -0.2%. However, over a
For the week ending 15 November 2019 As of noon on Friday, major US equity indices are on pace to close at record highs as fears of recession dissipate and hopes for a US-China trade agreement endure. The yield on
Core bond yields were higher over the course of the last week with the benchmark 10-year US treasury note at its highest yield since mid-September. This comes amid a more constructive tone to trade talks between China and the USA.
Het Britse House of Commons heeft het ontwerp voor het vertrekakkoord goedgekeurd, maar verwierp het versneldetijdschema. Het lijkterop dateerste minister Boris Johnson veel verder staat dan Theresa May ooit is geraakt. DeAmerikaanseen Chinesetopambtenaren voor de handel hebben elkaar ontmoet om
One beneficiary of a perceived easing in the U.S.-China trade conflict: EM debt, which has rallied recently and outperformed developed market peers. We see factors further supporting EM debt from here: a likely Fed rate cut this week and the
Brexit commotion dominated market sentiment after the agreement reached by Boris Johnson failed to go to a vote in the Commons over the last weekend. The UK prime minister eventually got a majority for his text but accelerated adoption was
Geopolitics’ clout on markets persists The impact of the protectionist push on the global economy and markets is playing out: Global growth is slowing, and geopolitical volatility has increasingly swung markets. A perceived easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and the
We have relatively cautious expectations for this week’s U.S./China trade negotiations. A potential truce or de-escalation in the trade war is a “good news” card for President Trump, and he could wait for additional political developments over the next six
As demand for duration sends US Treasury yields down towards 1.50%, we look at the factors that could potentially push rates through this key psychological level.
Broad market volatility spilled into the loan market this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) lost -0.41% for the five business days ended Oct. 10, led lower by a 51 basis points reduction in the Index bid
Equity markets rebounded this week while bonds experienced a correction. Investors continue to attempt to gauge the reality of the deterioration in global manufacturing activity and the impact of the countermeasures in the form of monetary and fiscal support. Short-term
The fourth-quarter holiday seasons have expanded to unacceptable lengths. I noticed Halloween candy for sale in August, Thanksgiving cards out in September, and Christmas decorations on the shelves…virtually year-round. I realize the commercial aspects of these occasions have taken on
Bonds continue to be sought after, despite ever longer maturities sporting negative yields. In addition to economic uncertainties caused by the trade war and Brexit, liquidity shortages in US repo markets requiring supportive interventions by the Fed have recently unnerved
Apart from a technical lift on the last day of the third quarter, markets retreated as a fresh wave of bad political and economic news arrived. Both industrial and services ISM data fell much more than consensus expectations. Manufacturing ISM
Argentina and the IMF: A Bad Case of Déjà Vu Congressional Distractions Will Limit U.S. Economic Policy Capital Flows Get Drawn Into the Trade War
We see third-quarter earnings season offering some limited support to U.S. stocks in the near term, as a growth rebound is months away. Signs of weakening economic activity beyond the manufacturing sector have revived concerns about the growth backdrop. U.S.-China
#assetallocation https://twitter.com/PictetAM_NL/status/1245660439775547396
De financiële markten zullen komende weken opnieuw te maken krijgen met volatiliteit naarmate de omvang van de economische schade als gevolg van de pandemie duidelijk wordt. Daarom behouden wij onze neutrale weging voor aandelen en obligaties. https://am.pictet/nl/netherlands/global-articles/2020/monthly-market-views/asset-allocation/april?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=organic-social&utm_campaign=barometer&utm_content=april-2020
Adverse scenario becomes reality -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/erste-group/adverse-scenario-becomes-reality/ #CentralBanks #coronavirus #ECB #EmergingMarkets #Europe #gdpgrowth #COVID19 via
@ErsteGroup
2020 – coronavirus reversal and rebound -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/dws/2020-coronavirus-reversal-and-rebound/ #coronavirus #Equities #FixedIncome #gdp #interestrates #COVID19 via
@DWS_Group
USD: No sustained trend visible -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/04/erste-group/usd-no-sustained-trend-visible/ #currency #fx #interestrates via @ErsteGroup
Tackling The ‘Unknown Unknowns’: How Active Managers Manage Unforeseen Risks -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/04/columbia-threadneedle/tackling-the-unknown-unknowns-how-active-managers-manage-unforeseen-risks/ #active #passive #COVID19 #fundmanager #ETFs #behavioural via @CTinvest_EMEA @CTInvest_US
