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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap

🕔15:13, 2.Sep 2020

The US On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered (virtually) a longanticipated speech at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Policy Symposium, which is typically held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell announced the results of the central bank’s review of

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Spaghetti Western

Spaghetti Western

🕔11:25, 6.Aug 2020

Global Matters Weekly “Year 1862: amid the chaos of the American Civil War, the three gunslingers Blondie, Angel Eyes and Tuco (a.k.a. the Good, the Bad and the Ugly1 ) are competing to put their hands on a buried cache

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How flow can you go?

How flow can you go?

🕔09:33, 30.Jul 2020

After a bumper few months for equity markets, a recent report1 from Calastone, the global funds network, showed June was one of the worst months on record for outflows from UK equity funds. That follows positive UK market performance for

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔11:27, 28.Jul 2020

Europe and the U.S. Consider State Aid Is China’s Rebound Sustainable? Mortgage Rates Hit Bottom

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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap

🕔11:22, 22.Jul 2020

Wall Street began last week on a negative note, with worries about the resurgence of the coronavirus across much of the US seemingly weighing on sentiment. Renewed shutdowns in California appeared to be a particular focus of worry, with indoor

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2020 – a rollercoaster ride

2020 – a rollercoaster ride

🕔09:28, 22.Jul 2020

How to sum up 2020 so far? A rollercoaster is probably the best way to describe it; both from an emotional perspective but also in terms of what the markets have been up to. Over the first quarter, market participants

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A sharp risk-off trade returns

A sharp risk-off trade returns

🕔15:27, 19.Jun 2020

Stocks snapped a three-week winning streak as markets sank sharply last week.1 Worries about an uptick in coronavirus cases, the Federal Reserve’s downbeat assessment of long-term economic growth and President Trump’s declining poll numbers all contributed to negative sentiment. But

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Looking forward

Looking forward

🕔09:34, 18.Jun 2020

For those of you that don’t know, this Friday is the midpoint of summer and as I have a Swedish partner this means there will be a celebration. Midsummer, or Midsommar in Swedish, is an annual celebration in Sweden which

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Warning Shot

Warning Shot

🕔11:22, 16.Jun 2020

Key points Bad news on the pandemic front triggered some measure of market turmoil last week. Contagion from equity to credit market was limited though. Central bank support shows. We take a look at money supply growth. It may ultimately

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What are activists buying after the storm?

What are activists buying after the storm?

🕔07:39, 16.Jun 2020

The Special Situations strategy went through a roller coaster since February. Typically, due to their long structural market beta, managers tend to underperform in risk-off episodes. However, as they also tend to look beyond short-term volatility, they usually rebound faster.

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Carl comments on the protests that have spread across the United States.

Carl comments on the protests that have spread across the United States.

🕔11:18, 11.Jun 2020

Weekly Economic Commentary I grew up on the South Side of Chicago in the 1960s. The latter part of the decade was a challenging time for our city, and for our country. I lived close to the University of Chicago,

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Policy revolution: What’s next?

Policy revolution: What’s next?

🕔14:54, 10.Jun 2020

Macroeconomic policy has undergone a necessary revolution in just three months, but this is a slippery slope without proper guardrails. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue before the shock passes.

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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap

🕔13:18, 10.Jun 2020

Upside surprises in labour market data appeared to drive much of last week’s positive sentiment. Stocks rose sharply on Wednesday, following a much smallerthan-expected decline in ADP’s tally of monthly payrolls. The payroll processing firm reported that private sector jobs

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The SpaceX Factor

The SpaceX Factor

🕔09:13, 3.Jun 2020

Against a rapidly changing investment landscape, and with bond yields at ever lower levels, it would be unwise to rely solely on observed historical data to inform expectations about future cross asset class returns. We believe that robust scenario testing

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Weekly recap: Economic And Political Backdrop

Weekly recap: Economic And Political Backdrop

🕔14:27, 7.May 2020

Last week began on a positive note, with investors seemingly encouraged by the partial lifting of lockdowns in some states and the gradual reopening of major economies overseas. Coronavirus infection and hospitalisation trends also appeared to be encouraging in some

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Twin Economic Shocks Trigger Forceful Policy Stimulus

Twin Economic Shocks Trigger Forceful Policy Stimulus

🕔06:37, 20.Mar 2020

Dual shocks from COVID-19 and falling oil prices have hit the global economy. The key concern now is that significant dislocation in financial markets ricochets back onto the real economy, raising risks for the outlook. At the margin, we see

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Economic Update

Economic Update

🕔14:53, 19.Mar 2020

This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors.  Risks: Impacts from COVID-19 may cause a global recession. Political headlines may foment market volatility. Earnings growth has slowed and could stall

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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

🕔09:52, 16.Dec 2019

Optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal, and data releases suggesting recent global industrial weakness may have bottomed, lifted risk assets in November. Major government bond markets sold off, with Italian government bonds and emerging market (EM) local currency debt particularly

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Solid Tone to Risk Assets into Year End

Solid Tone to Risk Assets into Year End

🕔07:51, 13.Dec 2019

We believe global growth will remain moderate in 2020 (coming in around 3.25% for the year, essentially maintaining the current rate of annualized growth in 2019), thereby mitigating the imbalances and vulnerabilities (e.g., increasing inflation, sharp increases in commodity prices)

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France, Italy and Spain under pressure

France, Italy and Spain under pressure

🕔14:09, 26.Nov 2019

Week Ahead The draft budgets of France, Italy and Spain for the coming year were (not unexpectedly) not well-received by the European Commission. Despite high debt ratios, none of the three countries plans to make any significant budgetary adjustment. Therefore,

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Trade Remains in Focus; Manufacturing Steadies

Trade Remains in Focus; Manufacturing Steadies

🕔13:08, 26.Nov 2019

A review of the week's top global economic and capital markets news. For the week ending 22 November 2019 As of noon on Friday, global equities are on pace to close modestly lower on the week. The yield on the

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Stocks continue to rise on improving sentiment

Stocks continue to rise on improving sentiment

🕔17:29, 21.Nov 2019

Equities rose for the sixth straight week, marking the longest streak in two years.1 Trade issues remained in focus, as investor optimism over the Phase One trade deal has been rising. Investors have also been focused on modest improvements in

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Slowly, slowly does it.

Slowly, slowly does it.

🕔16:09, 21.Nov 2019

After a weak Q4 so far for rates markets, the last week provided a reversal of this fortune with prices higher in most areas. It was big week for economic data releases. The European economy continues to stumble on, as

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Market Flash: Global Growth Hopes Edge Higher

Market Flash: Global Growth Hopes Edge Higher

🕔09:41, 21.Nov 2019

The big news item of the week was Germany’s third quarter GDP which rose 0.1%, narrowly missing a move into recessionary territory. Expectations were for a 0.1% drop and second quarter GDP was revised down to -0.2%. However, over a

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Equities Extend Their Advance

Equities Extend Their Advance

🕔13:55, 19.Nov 2019

For the week ending 15 November 2019 As of noon on Friday, major US equity indices are on pace to close at record highs as fears of recession dissipate and hopes for a US-China trade agreement endure. The yield on

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Autumn leaves.

Autumn leaves.

🕔07:46, 1.Nov 2019

Core bond yields were higher over the course of the last week with the benchmark 10-year US treasury note at its highest yield since mid-September. This comes amid a more constructive tone to trade talks between China and the USA.

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Devoorbije Week In Een Notendop

Devoorbije Week In Een Notendop

🕔14:04, 29.Oct 2019

Het Britse House of Commons heeft het ontwerp voor het vertrekakkoord goedgekeurd, maar verwierp het versneldetijdschema. Het lijkterop dateerste minister Boris Johnson veel verder staat dan Theresa May ooit is geraakt. DeAmerikaanseen Chinesetopambtenaren voor de handel hebben elkaar ontmoet om

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Reaffirming our EM views after a rally

Reaffirming our EM views after a rally

🕔11:54, 29.Oct 2019

One beneficiary of a perceived easing in the U.S.-China trade conflict: EM debt, which has rallied recently and outperformed developed market peers. We see factors further supporting EM debt from here: a likely Fed rate cut this week and the

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The Focus Shifts To Earnings Reports

The Focus Shifts To Earnings Reports

🕔10:50, 29.Oct 2019

Brexit commotion dominated market sentiment after the agreement reached by Boris Johnson failed to go to a vote in the Commons over the last weekend. The UK prime minister eventually got a majority for his text but accelerated adoption was

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BII Global weekly commentary

BII Global weekly commentary

🕔09:00, 23.Oct 2019

Geopolitics’ clout on markets persists The impact of the protectionist push on the global economy and markets is playing out: Global growth is slowing, and geopolitical volatility has increasingly swung markets. A perceived easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and the

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Cautious Expectations for Trade Negotiations

Cautious Expectations for Trade Negotiations

🕔08:03, 21.Oct 2019

We have relatively cautious expectations for this week’s U.S./China trade negotiations. A potential truce or de-escalation in the trade war is a “good news” card for President Trump, and he could wait for additional political developments over the next six

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A matter of time

A matter of time

🕔07:45, 18.Oct 2019

As demand for duration sends US Treasury yields down towards 1.50%, we look at the factors that could potentially push rates through this key psychological level.

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Talking Points – Weekly Highlights

Talking Points – Weekly Highlights

🕔13:59, 17.Oct 2019

Broad market volatility spilled into the loan market this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) lost -0.41% for the five business days ended Oct. 10, led lower by a 51 basis points reduction in the Index bid

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Market Flash: After The Last Week’s Drop Stocks Rebounded

Market Flash: After The Last Week’s Drop Stocks Rebounded

🕔10:41, 17.Oct 2019

Equity markets rebounded this week while bonds experienced a correction. Investors continue to attempt to gauge the reality of the deterioration in global manufacturing activity and the impact of the countermeasures in the form of monetary and fiscal support. Short-term

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔08:39, 17.Oct 2019

The fourth-quarter holiday seasons have expanded to unacceptable lengths. I noticed Halloween candy for sale in August, Thanksgiving cards out in September, and Christmas decorations on the shelves…virtually year-round. I realize the commercial aspects of these occasions have taken on

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Below the waterline.

Below the waterline.

🕔07:32, 17.Oct 2019 Read Full Article
Credit Markets Weekly

Credit Markets Weekly

🕔07:58, 14.Oct 2019

Bonds continue to be sought after, despite ever longer maturities sporting negative yields. In addition to economic uncertainties caused by the trade war and Brexit, liquidity shortages in US repo markets requiring supportive interventions by the Fed have recently unnerved

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Market Flash – The stock market plunges: is it a feeling of déjà vu?

Market Flash – The stock market plunges: is it a feeling of déjà vu?

🕔10:50, 10.Oct 2019

Apart from a technical lift on the last day of the third quarter, markets retreated as a fresh wave of bad political and economic news arrived. Both industrial and services ISM data fell much more than consensus expectations. Manufacturing ISM

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔09:45, 10.Oct 2019

Argentina and the IMF: A Bad Case of Déjà Vu Congressional Distractions Will Limit U.S. Economic Policy Capital Flows Get Drawn Into the Trade War

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Why earnings season matters

Why earnings season matters

🕔16:56, 9.Oct 2019

We see third-quarter earnings season offering some limited support to U.S. stocks in the near term, as a growth rebound is months away. Signs of weakening economic activity beyond the manufacturing sector have revived concerns about the growth backdrop. U.S.-China

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PessimISM…

PessimISM…

🕔16:29, 8.Oct 2019

Core government bond yields were lower last week and are back to close to the recent lows. They were pushed along this path by lower manufacturing sentiment indices. Specifically, the release of PMI data in the US reinforced the idea

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Market Flash: The Geopolitical Context Remains Uncertain

Market Flash: The Geopolitical Context Remains Uncertain

🕔13:49, 3.Oct 2019

Once again, markets danced to the tune of developments in US politics and the trade war. The Democrats started a pre-impeachment procedure against Donald Trump. Washington is still looking for a broad agreement with Beijing, one that goes beyond simply

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‘Gold is money. Everything else is credit.’

‘Gold is money. Everything else is credit.’

🕔17:44, 2.Oct 2019

Government bonds enjoyed another strong week with yields lower in the key areas. The release of PMI data in Europe offered little in the way of good news. It showed that the manufacturing downturn has taken another leg lower, driven

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A Concentrated, Global Easing Cycle; U.S. Repo Stress

A Concentrated, Global Easing Cycle; U.S. Repo Stress

🕔08:32, 27.Sep 2019

Weekly view from the desk As we continue assessing global oil market conditions, key factors we’re monitoring include the restoration of the Saudi Aramco facilities’ capacity vs. actual production, the likelihood that a geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in crude

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CEE Market Insights

CEE Market Insights

🕔09:27, 24.Sep 2019

Currencies fell last week in the region, but the stronger the yield declines of bond markets, the more robust the weakening in the currency that took place. We saw that regional markets reacted not much to international market developments (Saudi

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Higher yields, inflation and energy prices

Higher yields, inflation and energy prices

🕔11:43, 20.Sep 2019

Macro / government bonds Core bond yields were meaningfully higher and yield curves steeper last week in the face of better economic data and higher inflation in the US and some more conciliatory action between the US and China with

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ECB zet de geldkraan open

ECB zet de geldkraan open

🕔11:54, 18.Sep 2019

Alle ogen waren afgelopen week gericht op de vergadering van de ECB. ECB-voorzitter Mario Draghi stelde niet teleur met de aankondiging van een hele reeks aan verruimende maatregelen. Conform verwachting werd de depositorente verder verlaagd. Ook werd het opnieuw opstarten

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Lower growth, higher inflation

Lower growth, higher inflation

🕔10:50, 18.Sep 2019

Markets breathed a sigh of relief last week on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. We see ongoing policy support, the absence of obvious financial system vulnerabilities and resilient consumer spending helping extend the U.S. economic expansion. Yet trade tensions

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Market Flash: The Spirit Of Compromise Returns

Market Flash: The Spirit Of Compromise Returns

🕔16:55, 17.Sep 2019

US-China tensions eased further over the week and Beijing exempted US products from import duties only a few days before both sides were due to meet for talks. China might even resume importing US agricultural products like soya. Meanwhile, over

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Market Flash: A Whiff Of Optimism Lifts Markets

Market Flash: A Whiff Of Optimism Lifts Markets

🕔07:48, 13.Sep 2019

Equity markets finally rebounded on reduced tensions in Hong Kong, mounting obstacles in Boris Johnson’s way towards a no-deal Brexit and news that US-China talks were to resume. Economic data remained mixed between upbeat consumer services and fears of an

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