We have relatively cautious expectations for this week’s U.S./China trade negotiations. A potential truce or de-escalation in the trade war is a “good news” card for President Trump, and he could wait for additional political developments over the next six
As demand for duration sends US Treasury yields down towards 1.50%, we look at the factors that could potentially push rates through this key psychological level.
Broad market volatility spilled into the loan market this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) lost -0.41% for the five business days ended Oct. 10, led lower by a 51 basis points reduction in the Index bid
Equity markets rebounded this week while bonds experienced a correction. Investors continue to attempt to gauge the reality of the deterioration in global manufacturing activity and the impact of the countermeasures in the form of monetary and fiscal support. Short-term
The fourth-quarter holiday seasons have expanded to unacceptable lengths. I noticed Halloween candy for sale in August, Thanksgiving cards out in September, and Christmas decorations on the shelves…virtually year-round. I realize the commercial aspects of these occasions have taken on
Bonds continue to be sought after, despite ever longer maturities sporting negative yields. In addition to economic uncertainties caused by the trade war and Brexit, liquidity shortages in US repo markets requiring supportive interventions by the Fed have recently unnerved
Apart from a technical lift on the last day of the third quarter, markets retreated as a fresh wave of bad political and economic news arrived. Both industrial and services ISM data fell much more than consensus expectations. Manufacturing ISM
Argentina and the IMF: A Bad Case of Déjà Vu Congressional Distractions Will Limit U.S. Economic Policy Capital Flows Get Drawn Into the Trade War
We see third-quarter earnings season offering some limited support to U.S. stocks in the near term, as a growth rebound is months away. Signs of weakening economic activity beyond the manufacturing sector have revived concerns about the growth backdrop. U.S.-China
Core government bond yields were lower last week and are back to close to the recent lows. They were pushed along this path by lower manufacturing sentiment indices. Specifically, the release of PMI data in the US reinforced the idea
Once again, markets danced to the tune of developments in US politics and the trade war. The Democrats started a pre-impeachment procedure against Donald Trump. Washington is still looking for a broad agreement with Beijing, one that goes beyond simply
Government bonds enjoyed another strong week with yields lower in the key areas. The release of PMI data in Europe offered little in the way of good news. It showed that the manufacturing downturn has taken another leg lower, driven
Weekly view from the desk As we continue assessing global oil market conditions, key factors we’re monitoring include the restoration of the Saudi Aramco facilities’ capacity vs. actual production, the likelihood that a geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in crude
Currencies fell last week in the region, but the stronger the yield declines of bond markets, the more robust the weakening in the currency that took place. We saw that regional markets reacted not much to international market developments (Saudi
Macro / government bonds Core bond yields were meaningfully higher and yield curves steeper last week in the face of better economic data and higher inflation in the US and some more conciliatory action between the US and China with
Alle ogen waren afgelopen week gericht op de vergadering van de ECB. ECB-voorzitter Mario Draghi stelde niet teleur met de aankondiging van een hele reeks aan verruimende maatregelen. Conform verwachting werd de depositorente verder verlaagd. Ook werd het opnieuw opstarten
Markets breathed a sigh of relief last week on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. We see ongoing policy support, the absence of obvious financial system vulnerabilities and resilient consumer spending helping extend the U.S. economic expansion. Yet trade tensions
US-China tensions eased further over the week and Beijing exempted US products from import duties only a few days before both sides were due to meet for talks. China might even resume importing US agricultural products like soya. Meanwhile, over
Equity markets finally rebounded on reduced tensions in Hong Kong, mounting obstacles in Boris Johnson’s way towards a no-deal Brexit and news that US-China talks were to resume. Economic data remained mixed between upbeat consumer services and fears of an
We identified geopolitical risk as the key market driver in the second half of 2019 in our midyear investment outlook. The UK is the latest example, where deep divisions over a potential Brexit have unsettled the political landscape, paving the
A mixed batch of numbers from the latest US payrolls report last week left our outlook as expecting another easing in the US Fed Funds Rates in next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Headline payrolls growth slowed to 130,000
Global equities began last week on poor footing following weak manufacturing data and more tariffs including the U.S. implementing 15% tariffs on about $125 billion of Chinese goods and China issuing 5%-10% tariffs on some U.S. imports including crude oil
The US president has remained mercurial on the issue of trade. Having said at the G7 summit that he regretted not being harder on China, President Trump switched towards optimism, saying China wanted "to make a deal very badly." More
The U.S. yield curve inverted last Tuesday, raising worries of recession, while the trade war escalates this week as China and the U.S. exchange taris. Despite increased concerns on the U.S. yield curve, global equities gained 2.0% last week with
The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).
Fresh #StarkieBlog! https://t.co/YZrzQpIlIQ
Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen
