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Twin Economic Shocks Trigger Forceful Policy Stimulus

Twin Economic Shocks Trigger Forceful Policy Stimulus

🕔06:37, 20.Mar 2020

Dual shocks from COVID-19 and falling oil prices have hit the global economy. The key concern now is that significant dislocation in financial markets ricochets back onto the real economy, raising risks for the outlook. At the margin, we see

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Economic Update

Economic Update

🕔14:53, 19.Mar 2020

This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors.  Risks: Impacts from COVID-19 may cause a global recession. Political headlines may foment market volatility. Earnings growth has slowed and could stall

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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

🕔09:52, 16.Dec 2019

Optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal, and data releases suggesting recent global industrial weakness may have bottomed, lifted risk assets in November. Major government bond markets sold off, with Italian government bonds and emerging market (EM) local currency debt particularly

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Solid Tone to Risk Assets into Year End

Solid Tone to Risk Assets into Year End

🕔07:51, 13.Dec 2019

We believe global growth will remain moderate in 2020 (coming in around 3.25% for the year, essentially maintaining the current rate of annualized growth in 2019), thereby mitigating the imbalances and vulnerabilities (e.g., increasing inflation, sharp increases in commodity prices)

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France, Italy and Spain under pressure

France, Italy and Spain under pressure

🕔14:09, 26.Nov 2019

Week Ahead The draft budgets of France, Italy and Spain for the coming year were (not unexpectedly) not well-received by the European Commission. Despite high debt ratios, none of the three countries plans to make any significant budgetary adjustment. Therefore,

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Trade Remains in Focus; Manufacturing Steadies

Trade Remains in Focus; Manufacturing Steadies

🕔13:08, 26.Nov 2019

A review of the week's top global economic and capital markets news. For the week ending 22 November 2019 As of noon on Friday, global equities are on pace to close modestly lower on the week. The yield on the

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Stocks continue to rise on improving sentiment

Stocks continue to rise on improving sentiment

🕔17:29, 21.Nov 2019

Equities rose for the sixth straight week, marking the longest streak in two years.1 Trade issues remained in focus, as investor optimism over the Phase One trade deal has been rising. Investors have also been focused on modest improvements in

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Slowly, slowly does it.

Slowly, slowly does it.

🕔16:09, 21.Nov 2019

After a weak Q4 so far for rates markets, the last week provided a reversal of this fortune with prices higher in most areas. It was big week for economic data releases. The European economy continues to stumble on, as

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Market Flash: Global Growth Hopes Edge Higher

Market Flash: Global Growth Hopes Edge Higher

🕔09:41, 21.Nov 2019

The big news item of the week was Germany’s third quarter GDP which rose 0.1%, narrowly missing a move into recessionary territory. Expectations were for a 0.1% drop and second quarter GDP was revised down to -0.2%. However, over a

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Equities Extend Their Advance

Equities Extend Their Advance

🕔13:55, 19.Nov 2019

For the week ending 15 November 2019 As of noon on Friday, major US equity indices are on pace to close at record highs as fears of recession dissipate and hopes for a US-China trade agreement endure. The yield on

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Autumn leaves.

Autumn leaves.

🕔07:46, 1.Nov 2019

Core bond yields were higher over the course of the last week with the benchmark 10-year US treasury note at its highest yield since mid-September. This comes amid a more constructive tone to trade talks between China and the USA.

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Devoorbije Week In Een Notendop

Devoorbije Week In Een Notendop

🕔14:04, 29.Oct 2019

Het Britse House of Commons heeft het ontwerp voor het vertrekakkoord goedgekeurd, maar verwierp het versneldetijdschema. Het lijkterop dateerste minister Boris Johnson veel verder staat dan Theresa May ooit is geraakt. DeAmerikaanseen Chinesetopambtenaren voor de handel hebben elkaar ontmoet om

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Reaffirming our EM views after a rally

Reaffirming our EM views after a rally

🕔11:54, 29.Oct 2019

One beneficiary of a perceived easing in the U.S.-China trade conflict: EM debt, which has rallied recently and outperformed developed market peers. We see factors further supporting EM debt from here: a likely Fed rate cut this week and the

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The Focus Shifts To Earnings Reports

The Focus Shifts To Earnings Reports

🕔10:50, 29.Oct 2019

Brexit commotion dominated market sentiment after the agreement reached by Boris Johnson failed to go to a vote in the Commons over the last weekend. The UK prime minister eventually got a majority for his text but accelerated adoption was

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BII Global weekly commentary

BII Global weekly commentary

🕔09:00, 23.Oct 2019

Geopolitics’ clout on markets persists The impact of the protectionist push on the global economy and markets is playing out: Global growth is slowing, and geopolitical volatility has increasingly swung markets. A perceived easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and the

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Cautious Expectations for Trade Negotiations

Cautious Expectations for Trade Negotiations

🕔08:03, 21.Oct 2019

We have relatively cautious expectations for this week’s U.S./China trade negotiations. A potential truce or de-escalation in the trade war is a “good news” card for President Trump, and he could wait for additional political developments over the next six

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A matter of time

A matter of time

🕔07:45, 18.Oct 2019

As demand for duration sends US Treasury yields down towards 1.50%, we look at the factors that could potentially push rates through this key psychological level.

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Talking Points – Weekly Highlights

Talking Points – Weekly Highlights

🕔13:59, 17.Oct 2019

Broad market volatility spilled into the loan market this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) lost -0.41% for the five business days ended Oct. 10, led lower by a 51 basis points reduction in the Index bid

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Market Flash: After The Last Week’s Drop Stocks Rebounded

Market Flash: After The Last Week’s Drop Stocks Rebounded

🕔10:41, 17.Oct 2019

Equity markets rebounded this week while bonds experienced a correction. Investors continue to attempt to gauge the reality of the deterioration in global manufacturing activity and the impact of the countermeasures in the form of monetary and fiscal support. Short-term

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔08:39, 17.Oct 2019

The fourth-quarter holiday seasons have expanded to unacceptable lengths. I noticed Halloween candy for sale in August, Thanksgiving cards out in September, and Christmas decorations on the shelves…virtually year-round. I realize the commercial aspects of these occasions have taken on

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Below the waterline.

Below the waterline.

🕔07:32, 17.Oct 2019 Read Full Article
Credit Markets Weekly

Credit Markets Weekly

🕔07:58, 14.Oct 2019

Bonds continue to be sought after, despite ever longer maturities sporting negative yields. In addition to economic uncertainties caused by the trade war and Brexit, liquidity shortages in US repo markets requiring supportive interventions by the Fed have recently unnerved

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Market Flash – The stock market plunges: is it a feeling of déjà vu?

Market Flash – The stock market plunges: is it a feeling of déjà vu?

🕔10:50, 10.Oct 2019

Apart from a technical lift on the last day of the third quarter, markets retreated as a fresh wave of bad political and economic news arrived. Both industrial and services ISM data fell much more than consensus expectations. Manufacturing ISM

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔09:45, 10.Oct 2019

Argentina and the IMF: A Bad Case of Déjà Vu Congressional Distractions Will Limit U.S. Economic Policy Capital Flows Get Drawn Into the Trade War

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Why earnings season matters

Why earnings season matters

🕔16:56, 9.Oct 2019

We see third-quarter earnings season offering some limited support to U.S. stocks in the near term, as a growth rebound is months away. Signs of weakening economic activity beyond the manufacturing sector have revived concerns about the growth backdrop. U.S.-China

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