Markets struggled to regain their calm although the risk of Chinese currency manipulation abated. Fundamental worries over an economic slowdown -with its litany of negative interest rates and yield curve inversion – returned to haunt investors. Second quarter results were
The U.S./China Trade Conflict. On this front, we have been assuming provocation would eventually give way to negotiation. The issues between the two countries are numerous and complicated, but we have been assuming that economic and political forces would lead
A Long, Hot Summer The trade truce between China and the United States was short-lived. In a flurry of economic news following a fruitless negotiation round, the United States threatened new tariffs on all imports from China; China cancelled U.S.
Central banks once again remained centre stage. Judging from falls in the euro and European sovereign bond yields, investors were clearly expecting big developments over the week. And yet the ECB meeting raised more questions than answers. True, the ECB
The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending, which grew at 5% annualized in the second quarter, and real consumer spending, which grew at
Unconvincing results and fresh US-China tensions leave investors hesitant. The US economy remained buoyant thanks to strong consumer spending. Retail sales were underpinned by a 4% lift to wages and falling oil prices (as tensions with Iran abated and fears
While we expect the ECB to formally adopt an easing bias at its policy meeting later this week, we believe a 5-10 bps cut to the central bank’s deposit rate—along with revisions to its macro forecasts—won’t occur before September. And
The New York Fed clarified comments by leader John Williams, causing a dramatic swing in expectations for a July Fed rate cut of 0.50%. The European Central Bank may provide easing details on Thursday. U.S.-Iran tensions and U.S. President Donald
Bumpy Road Ahead For The U.S. Auto Industry Germany’s Motor Is Sputtering Chinese Auto Sales Are Stuck in Reverse
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK The release of second quarter corporate earnings is moving into full gear and investors are not entirely happy with the results. In addition to stumbling share prices, the latest jump in the implied probabilities of a lower
Market flash Meanwhile, the European Union made a number of senior appointments. After lengthy negotiations, a reflection of Europe’s very politically diverse nature, Ursula von der Leyen was put forward as European Commission president while Christine Lagarde was proposed as
The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) slipped 6 basis points (“bps”) for the seven day period ended June 27, led lower by a 17 bps reduction in the average Index bid, to 96.80.
The Great Divide What we don’t know about investments could fill an encyclopedia, but the current positions of the stock and bond markets are difficult to reconcile. Last week, the S&P 500 closed at a record high level. After a
In this issue: Age Isn’t Just a Number A Close Look at Demographics and Economic Performance
Week Ahead The most important event next week will be the meeting between US President Trump and China's President Xi on the fringes of the G20 summit in Japan. Negotiations on a trade agreement have been on hold since May.
The Weekly Brief Last week Lyxor Cross Asset Research team addressed the positive performance of CTA strategies during the market downturn, which started a few weeks ago and dragged global equities nearly -6% lower in May. This fact is nonetheless
While China’s economic growth showed some signs of a pickup in early 2019, overall activity in the rest of emerging Asia looks still weak, especially exports. We expect China’s policy stance to turn more accommodative amid weaker-thanexpected data and a
t is hard to overstate the differences in style between China and the United States. The Chinese are measured, patient and subtle. They view Washington’s posture as impulsive and unproductive. Several people in Beijing referred to the increase in tariffs
Weekly Digest Hiring managers looking to bring someone into their business or team would naturally include an interview stage for promising candidates, which may consist of several rounds of face to face questioning and assessment. Why should the process of
Strategy Espresso On 1 May, investors in US equities were celebrating. The S&P 500 had more than recovered all of the losses from last year’s Q4 sell-off to reach a new all-time high of 2,954. The CBOE Volatility Index (“VIX”), widely accepted
This year’s rally in risk assets came to a screeching halt in May, derailed at first by the collapse of U.S.–China trade negotiations. It was thought that a deal could emerge during the first week of the month. Instead, the
Weekly Commentary Inflation expectations have sharply fallen recently, driving down U.S. government bond yields and focusing attention on Fed policy. The market now expects three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2020. The Fed is getting concerned that its
Macro Weekly Eurozone economic sentiment improves Industrial production in Japan and Korea improves But China manufacturing PMI drops back again
Index Dashboard: U.S
Index Dashboard: Europe
