Welcome to the first issue of the Investment Traffic Lights “Quarterly Edition.” The Quarterly Editions will focus on our strategic twelve-month forecasts that follow our quarterly strategy meetings, which also means that the “Market overview” section will be shorter than
Fed bereidt de markten voor op afbouw opkoopprogramma ‒ Chinese groeivertraging en corona treffen opkomende economieën ‒ Sterke winstgroei steunt aandelenrally ‒ Winst nemen op vastgoed, obligaties opkomende markten naar neutraal
Stocks extended gains in March as countries pushed ahead with their COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, the US passed a new stimulus package and major central banks indicated they are likely to keep interest rates low even as the economy rebounds. The
It’s been a terrible month for most fixed income assets. Actually, it’s been a terrible month for most assets that are considered to be ‘safe’. In February, the riskier the asset, the better the performance. Commodities and oil in particular led the way. The reflation story continued to be the dominant theme, but the twist this month was …
It is Martin Luther King Day today and on 20 January Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the 47th and oldest ever President of the United States. There was a degree of stabilisation in rates markets last week after the inflation fears led a sell off. The benchmark 10-year US government …
The US Election Will Determine the Path of Fiscal Policy Fiscal and monetary stimulus have played a critical role in restarting the economy and remain crucial to a continued expansion Monetary stimulus is not subject to the election cycle: the
The US On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered (virtually) a longanticipated speech at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Policy Symposium, which is typically held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell announced the results of the central bank’s review of
As the global economy continued to inch back towards normality and equity markets recovered ground, most of our reported risk indicators declined in August. The realized volatility of the S&P 500, S&P Composite 1500, S&P Developed Ex-U.S. BMI and S&P
These are the dog days of summer in the northern hemisphere, with volumes across world equity markets at their seasonal lull. With August’s thinner-than-usual liquidity, we often observes spikes in volatility when events require that traders return to their desks
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor presents a concise review of economic and asset class data through clear and impactful charts. Providing timely information across a broad array of markets and investment topics, this guide serves as a helpful resource in
Global Matters Weekly “Year 1862: amid the chaos of the American Civil War, the three gunslingers Blondie, Angel Eyes and Tuco (a.k.a. the Good, the Bad and the Ugly1 ) are competing to put their hands on a buried cache
After a bumper few months for equity markets, a recent report1 from Calastone, the global funds network, showed June was one of the worst months on record for outflows from UK equity funds. That follows positive UK market performance for
Europe and the U.S. Consider State Aid Is China’s Rebound Sustainable? Mortgage Rates Hit Bottom
Wall Street began last week on a negative note, with worries about the resurgence of the coronavirus across much of the US seemingly weighing on sentiment. Renewed shutdowns in California appeared to be a particular focus of worry, with indoor
How to sum up 2020 so far? A rollercoaster is probably the best way to describe it; both from an emotional perspective but also in terms of what the markets have been up to. Over the first quarter, market participants
For the quarter ended June 30, 2020, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 2.90%. Year to date, the index has returned 6.14%. U.S. Treasuries returned 0.48% during the quarter as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury declined
Key points Stocks wrapped their best calendar quarter since 2009 during June as many economies continued their way out of lockdowns imposed to control the expansion of COVID-19. The STOXX® Global 1800 Index rose 2.7% in dollar terms during the
Key points A genuine gap is emerging between the US and Europe on the pandemic front So far differences in policy initiatives on either side of the Atlantic have made up for this short-coming Interdependency of virus control, policy and
Stocks snapped a three-week winning streak as markets sank sharply last week.1 Worries about an uptick in coronavirus cases, the Federal Reserve’s downbeat assessment of long-term economic growth and President Trump’s declining poll numbers all contributed to negative sentiment. But
For those of you that don’t know, this Friday is the midpoint of summer and as I have a Swedish partner this means there will be a celebration. Midsummer, or Midsommar in Swedish, is an annual celebration in Sweden which
For the month ended May 31, 2020, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.47%. Year to date, the index has returned 5.47%. U.S. Treasuries returned -0.25% during the month as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose
Key points Bad news on the pandemic front triggered some measure of market turmoil last week. Contagion from equity to credit market was limited though. Central bank support shows. We take a look at money supply growth. It may ultimately
The Special Situations strategy went through a roller coaster since February. Typically, due to their long structural market beta, managers tend to underperform in risk-off episodes. However, as they also tend to look beyond short-term volatility, they usually rebound faster.
After a strong rally from the March lows, equity markets have been range-bound. Investors are weighing hopes of a recovery against fears of a “second wave” of virus cases, high valuations, and US-China trade tensions. In this letter, we offer
Weekly Economic Commentary I grew up on the South Side of Chicago in the 1960s. The latter part of the decade was a challenging time for our city, and for our country. I lived close to the University of Chicago,
Macroeconomic policy has undergone a necessary revolution in just three months, but this is a slippery slope without proper guardrails. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue before the shock passes.
Upside surprises in labour market data appeared to drive much of last week’s positive sentiment. Stocks rose sharply on Wednesday, following a much smallerthan-expected decline in ADP’s tally of monthly payrolls. The payroll processing firm reported that private sector jobs
The rebound in equity markets extended into May. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on how countries would begin to relax their lockdown measures and how this would affect the economy. Volatility
Against a rapidly changing investment landscape, and with bond yields at ever lower levels, it would be unwise to rely solely on observed historical data to inform expectations about future cross asset class returns. We believe that robust scenario testing
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor presents a concise review of economic and asset class data through clear and impactful charts. Providing timely information across a broad array of markets and investment topics, this guide serves as a helpful resource in
After the severe shock in March, markets rebounded strongly in April. COVID-19 continued to spread globally, but some countries saw daily new infection rates start to fall and are now planning to gradually reopen their economies. Governments and central banks
Last week began on a positive note, with investors seemingly encouraged by the partial lifting of lockdowns in some states and the gradual reopening of major economies overseas. Coronavirus infection and hospitalisation trends also appeared to be encouraging in some
For the month ended April 30, 2020, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 1.78%. Year to date, the index has returned 4.98% U.S. Treasuries returned 0.64% during the month as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury declined
23 April 2020 A reprieve in oil markets led to a reprieve in equity markets, which rebounded 1.5% in Europe and 2.3% in the US after two negative days. WTI prices bounced to USD15 per barrel and Brent recovered to
Equities slumped by the most since 2008 during March, as the global economy was forced to come to a standstill in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The STOXX® Global 1800 Index dropped 12.9% in dollar terms, after a rebound
This quarter has not been an easy one for most investors. While it was already clear that we were in the later stages of the economic cycle, nobody could have predicted at the start of this year that large parts
We review trends across markets and economies in Q1 2020, consider what they mean for our multi-asset portfolios and present a positioning update. In the history of financial markets, there has never been a quarter like Q1 2020. As the
Index Dashboard: Europe
Dual shocks from COVID-19 and falling oil prices have hit the global economy. The key concern now is that significant dislocation in financial markets ricochets back onto the real economy, raising risks for the outlook. At the margin, we see
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors. Risks: Impacts from COVID-19 may cause a global recession. Political headlines may foment market volatility. Earnings growth has slowed and could stall
In February, the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak replaced trade as the main focus for the markets. Fears of near-term negative effects on Chinese and global growth, together with the expectation that central banks around the globe will provide further monetary policy
Mounting economic and political uncertainty in 2020 is likely to create a backdrop of short-term headwinds for banking and capital markets (B&CM) mergers and acquisitions (M&A). 2019 closed with record-low US unemployment, an all-time-high stock market, and considerable available capital
Investors’ Outlook There was a High Noon moment mid-2019 when the US Federal Reserve’s intrepid marshal Jerome Powell drew his liquidity gun. This surprised the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly all around, and had financial saloons buzzing in anticipation
What happened in the past month? Global trade growth continues to improve, riding on the tailwind of monetary easing earlier in the year and the recent de-escalation of China-US trade tension. On the domestic front, stronger infrastructure FAI and still-resilient
Last Christmas, the markets gave investors a fright. This year, to save us from tears, the central banks gave us something special. Equity markets delivered fantastic returns in 2019. The MSCI World Index was up 28%, led by US equities
We review trends across markets and economies in Q4 2019, consider what they mean for our multi-asset portfolios and present a positioning update. All major risk asset classes enjoyed handsome quarterly returns in Q4 2019, particularly global equities, reflected by
A look back at markets in Q4 2019 when shares were supported by optimism over the prospects for a US-China trade deal.
In 2018, earnings were growing at double-digit rates, while equity markets were trading down. In 2019, however, earnings stagnated, and equities rose substantially. What a year! From today's point of view, market comments from one year ago are a fun
Key points Stocks rose for a fourth consecutive month in December, extending indices’ record-breaking rally this year, as the US and China struck an initial trade deal and reports pointed to a possible acceleration in the global economy. The STOXX®
