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Cross Asset Investment Strategy June

Cross Asset Investment Strategy June

🕔10:14, 15.Jun 2019

Cio views Increased risk requires a cautious attitude This month’s topic: the 2020 us presidential election: another close race?

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Increased risk requires a cautious attitude

Increased risk requires a cautious attitude

🕔13:02, 4.Jun 2019

Global Investment Views  After weeks of relative stability, the threat of a trade war has returned, shaking investor confidence and awakening markets from complacency. However, while there is still a significant optimism in the market that a deal can be

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Crypto-Assets: Implications for financial stability, monetary policy, and payments and market infrastructures

Crypto-Assets: Implications for financial stability, monetary policy, and payments and market infrastructures

🕔15:22, 17.May 2019

Occasional Paper Series This paper summarises the outcomes of the analysis of the ECB Crypto-Assets Task Force. First, it proposes a characterisation of crypto-assets in the absence of a common definition and as a basis for the consistent analysis of

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Manager Intelligence and Market Trends

Manager Intelligence and Market Trends

🕔17:02, 9.May 2019

The bfinance Risk Aversion Index swung back into bullish territory in early 2019 as stocks emerged from the doldrums to hit new highs. Yet asset owners remain relatively cautious amid whip-sawing markets.

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BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard

BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard

🕔14:04, 8.May 2019

We see geopolitical risk as a material market factor in 2019, especially in an environment of slowing growth and elevated uncertainty about the economic and corporate earnings outlook. At the center of the geopolitical debate? Increasing rivalry between the U.S.

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News-Based Indices on Country Fundamentals: Do They Help Explain Sovereign Credit Spread Fluctuations?

News-Based Indices on Country Fundamentals: Do They Help Explain Sovereign Credit Spread Fluctuations?

🕔09:15, 8.May 2019

This paper revisits the discussion about the role that fundamentals play in asset prices using sovereign credit spread data. We augment the standard macroeconomic proxy set by text-based measures of country and global fundamentals from a database of Reuters news

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Risk & Reward

Risk & Reward

🕔15:03, 17.Apr 2019

Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different types of forward

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Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different types of forward guidance on the sensitivity of bond yields to macroeconomic news, and on forecaster disagreement about the future path of interest rates. We show that forward guidance mutes the response to macroeconomic news in general, but that calendar-based forward guidance with a short horizon counterintuitively raises it. Using a model where agents learn from market signals, we show that the release of more precise public information about future rates lowers the informativeness of market signals and, as a consequence, may increase uncertainty and amplify the reaction of expectations to macroeconomic news. However, when the increase in precision of public information is sufficiently large, uncertainty is unambiguously reduced.

Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different types of forward guidance on the sensitivity of bond yields to macroeconomic news, and on forecaster disagreement about the future path of interest rates. We show that forward guidance mutes the response to macroeconomic news in general, but that calendar-based forward guidance with a short horizon counterintuitively raises it. Using a model where agents learn from market signals, we show that the release of more precise public information about future rates lowers the informativeness of market signals and, as a consequence, may increase uncertainty and amplify the reaction of expectations to macroeconomic news. However, when the increase in precision of public information is sufficiently large, uncertainty is unambiguously reduced.

🕔15:03, 17.Apr 2019

Risk & Reward Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different

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2019 the state of risk oversight

2019 the state of risk oversight

🕔16:51, 4.Apr 2019

As business leaders manage the ever-changing economic, political, and technological landscape they face a significantly magnified exposure to risk and uncertainty. This creates a highly complex portfolio of potential risks that, if managed poorly, can lead to lost opportunities that

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Crowded Trades and Tail Risk

Crowded Trades and Tail Risk

🕔11:02, 27.Mar 2019

Concentrated positions in investment assets, often referred to as “crowded trades", are increasingly a topic of interest to investors and regulators. The concern centers around self-reinforcing downward price pressure resulting from liquidation of concentrated positions by vulnerable asset owners. But,

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Constrained Risk Budgeting Portfolios

Constrained Risk Budgeting Portfolios

🕔08:10, 21.Feb 2019

Working Paper This article develops the theory of risk budgeting portfolios, when we would like to impose weight constraints. It appears that the mathematical problem is more complex than the traditional risk budgeting problem. The formulation of the optimization program

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Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises

Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises

🕔14:25, 14.Feb 2019

Occasional Paper Series This paper presents a tractable, transparent and broad-based domestic cyclical systemic risk indicator (d-SRI) that captures risks stemming from domestic credit, real estate markets, asset prices, and external imbalances. The d-SRI increases on average several years before

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Aandelenrisico binnen individueel Defined Contribution

Aandelenrisico binnen individueel Defined Contribution

🕔14:02, 8.Feb 2019

Individueel Defined Contribution (iDC) regelingen krijgen steeds meer aandacht. Dit zijn beschikbare premieregelingen waarbij de inleg vaststaat en het pensioen voor een belangrijk deel afhangt van het behaalde rendement op de beleggingen. Een individuele regeling klinkt misschien eenvoudig en overzichtelijk.

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The Global Risk Report

The Global Risk Report

🕔13:03, 23.Jan 2019

We publish the 2019 edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report at an important moment. The world is facing a growing number of complex and interconnected challenges—from slowing global growth and persistent economic inequality to climate change, geopolitical

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BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard

BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard

🕔02:12, 19.Jan 2019

We are upgrading the likelihood of three of our geopolitical risks, even as overall market attention to geopolitics has edged down recently. We see geopolitical risk as a material market factor in 2019, especially in an environment of slowing growth

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Allianz Risk Barometer

Allianz Risk Barometer

🕔15:56, 16.Jan 2019

Technology is breeding new threats as well as business models. Traditional risks such as natural catastrophes continue to challenge while other threats such as cyber, neck-and-neck with business interruption at the top of the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first

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Risk & Reward

Risk & Reward

🕔11:03, 16.Jan 2019

In this paper we propose a commodity strategy that incorporates cross-sectional factors grounded in the rich research available on commodity futures pricing. Over the period studied, the strategy exhibited an attractive return profile with no significant correlation to general commodity

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Risk & Reward

Risk & Reward

🕔11:03, 16.Jan 2019

In this paper we propose a commodity strategy that incorporates cross-sectional factors grounded in the rich research available on commodity futures pricing. Over the period studied, the strategy exhibited an attractive return profile with no significant correlation to general commodity

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A Look Ahead to 2019 Shifting Emphasis From Return to Risk

A Look Ahead to 2019 Shifting Emphasis From Return to Risk

🕔15:02, 28.Dec 2018

As 2018 draws to a close, the marketplace has become increasingly littered with yearsin-review and return forecasts for the new calendar year. But forecasting is hard and forecasting market returns for a 12-month period is even harder. In their simplest

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Inflatierisico

Inflatierisico

🕔13:04, 25.Dec 2018

Het doel van pensioenfondsen is om hun deelnemers van een goed en waardevast pensioen te voorzien. Veel pensioenfondsen streven er daarom naar de pensioenen jaarlijks te verhogen met de inflatie. Deze jaarlijkse verhoging wordt indexatie of toeslag genoemd. In de

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Alternative Risk Premia: Crisis or Opportunity?

Alternative Risk Premia: Crisis or Opportunity?

🕔12:06, 22.Dec 2018

We define and study the alternative risk premia (ARP) universe through four distinct core strategy types: equity neutral, volatility, trend, and macro. We believe that a host of underlying drivers, which include rising price volatility, individual factor investing risks, and

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US high yield: accounting for outside risk

US high yield: accounting for outside risk

🕔17:02, 6.Dec 2018

Investment Insights With the US economy now in its ninth year of expansion, pressure from higher interest rates, future US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations and concerns around tariffs and trade wars have been weighing on the majority of

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Signs of Equity market Strain

Signs of Equity market Strain

🕔17:02, 3.Dec 2018

Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor™ •We introduce a new risk profile of the equity market – a collection of five reliable indicators of market strain – to help identify different risk regimes and associated tail-risk.

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Equity Market Risk Premium Research Summary

Equity Market Risk Premium Research Summary

🕔13:28, 21.Nov 2018

Do borrowers demand less credit from banks with weak balance sheet positions? To answer this question we use novel bank-specific survey data matched with confidential balance sheet information on a large set of euro area banks. We find that, following

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Let’s talk about actual investing.

Let’s talk about actual investing.

🕔19:02, 16.Nov 2018

The views expressed in this article are those of Stuart Dunbar and should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. They reflect personal opinion and should not be taken as statements

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Asset Allocation Consensus June

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Sign up on #OpinioPro to read all the latest research on #fixedincome, #assetallocation and so much more! Click here: https://t.co/90NYM4HBVh

In UBP's Monthly #Investment #Outlook they write: "After Q1 global weakness, world growth is expected to stabilise in Q2 and progressively recover moving into 2H19". Read the whole outlook here: https://t.co/jlNTFp5V6M

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