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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint June 2019

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint June 2019

🕔15:04, 14.Jun 2019

Lower for longer in EM? Higher oil prices and renewed trade tensions see largely negative revisions to our emerging markets (EM) forecasts this quarter, though there are few dramatic changes. Idiosyncratic factors are also at work, and in some cases

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Nieuwe zet in handelsconflict

Nieuwe zet in handelsconflict

🕔15:04, 8.Jun 2019

Politieke risico’s domineren Geopolitieke risico’s eisten de afgelopen maanden weer een hoofdrol op. Het handelsconflict tussen de Verenigde Staten en China escaleerde, terwijl een oplossing juist binnen handbereik leek. Het geschil tussen beide landen draait om meer dan handel alleen.

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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

🕔11:02, 28.May 2019

Global markets and multi-asset portfolios It was only a few weeks back that the S&P 500 made new record highs, first quarter U.S. GDP soundly beat consensus with a well-above-trend 3.2% print and European data began to show signs of

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The Outlook for Escalating Trade Tensions

The Outlook for Escalating Trade Tensions

🕔11:02, 28.May 2019

Recognizing that uncertainties regarding U.S./China trade tensions have multiplied, our perspective on recent developments are based on the question of: “what do we actually know?” 

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UBS House View, Investor’s Guide

UBS House View, Investor’s Guide

🕔11:02, 28.May 2019

No rush? On Thursday 2 May, US productivity grew at a nine-year high. The next day, the US celebrated unemployment at a 50-year low. But investors who partied into the weekend were sick Monday morning after President Donald Trump tweeted he

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Emerging Market Debt Update

Emerging Market Debt Update

🕔09:02, 27.May 2019

Investors turn to social media for tariff-truce updates ahead of a presidential in-person meeting at the G20 in June. Financial market participants spent much of the week monitoring the Twitter account of the US President in an attempt to decipher

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May Investment Strategy: Dealing with the governments we deserve

May Investment Strategy: Dealing with the governments we deserve

🕔17:54, 21.May 2019

Key points US-China tensions are back with a new round of tariff increases and threats of further escalation First quarter GDP data surprised on the upside in the US (significantly), in China and in Europe The demand breakdown as well

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China Watch

China Watch

🕔11:02, 20.May 2019

Oops, he did it again US-China tensions re-escalate  … affecting stock markets and the yuan  Complete breakdown of talks not likely, but uncertainty remains high

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US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war

US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war

🕔11:02, 20.May 2019

Investment Talks In our opinion, investors should dismiss the idea that talks could break down, albeit uncertainties remain. Recent work has focused on details and wording, with the majority of the agreement document having been completed. However, several major issues

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US tariffs hit China, as Europe’s car industry hopes for the best

US tariffs hit China, as Europe’s car industry hopes for the best

🕔16:17, 13.May 2019

Trade negotiations between the US and China continue after the US increased tariffs on $200bn of goods from China to 25%. While talks between the two countries continued throughout Friday, and they were described as “congenial”, “productive” and having gone

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Do President Trump’s trade threats spell doom for markets?

Do President Trump’s trade threats spell doom for markets?

🕔13:02, 10.May 2019

Market excitement about a resolution to the long-running U.S.-China trade dispute built ahead of (what were rumored to be) the final round of negotiations this week. However, comments from President Trump midday Sunday helped to dash that optimism. He threated

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From Trade War to Trade Talks?

From Trade War to Trade Talks?

🕔13:02, 16.Apr 2019

 Macro Weekly Talks on trade between the US and EU and Japan look to be on the cards The spectre of a trade war has haunted a global economy this year already struggling with the lagged effects of the tightening

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Monthly Commodity Insights

Monthly Commodity Insights

🕔13:02, 16.Apr 2019

Trade talk optimism lifts prices, but price gains become smaller We think that in the months ahead, commodity prices will be influenced by the trade deal narrative. Positive news from the talks will lift commodity prices further (such as industrial

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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

🕔11:02, 5.Apr 2019

The trade war being waged by the U.S. against some of its main economic partners ostensibly aimed to “level the playing field” in response to trade balances perceived to be unfair. A year or so in, has it succeeded and,

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China and the US soon to reach agreement on trade issues?

China and the US soon to reach agreement on trade issues?

🕔03:07, 23.Feb 2019

Week Ahead Next week will see the end of the 90-day period granted by the US to the Chinese leadership to make progress on the trade dispute at the negotiating table. Should the talks fail, the US threatens to raise

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China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations

China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations

🕔13:04, 11.Feb 2019

Progress in trade talks, soft landing ongoing The recent statements following the bilateral meetings between the US and China suggest that important progress has been made, and more details are emerging compared to the quiet early January round. However the

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Uncertainty Kinks the World’s Supply Chains

Uncertainty Kinks the World’s Supply Chains

🕔11:02, 10.Dec 2018

Investment Strategy Insights  Uncertain as to whether today’s trade disputes will harden into permanently elevated tariffs or become merely an interim step on the way to lower overall trade obstacles, US corporations – caught in the middle as governments joust

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Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now?

Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now?

🕔08:30, 8.Dec 2018

With a “classical” trade war, the impact would be similar to the damages during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and it could be much worse for the very open economies.”

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Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now? What Impacts?

Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now? What Impacts?

🕔08:30, 30.Nov 2018

Abstract 2018 will remain a landmark year, one that goes hand in hand with an increase in trade tariff measures and that marks the intensification of the trade dispute between the United States and countries such as China, Mexico and

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How are trade taxes affecting trade?

How are trade taxes affecting trade?

🕔01:03, 27.Nov 2018

Regional view – Europe "Taxing trade is an economic negative, but companies have been able to evade some of the trade tariffs." 

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Is The WTO Losing Relevance?

Is The WTO Losing Relevance?

🕔11:03, 19.Nov 2018

Weekly Economic Commentary Without traffic rules, movement on the world’s roads, rails and ports would be chaotic. In a similar way, global trade would be disorderly in the absence of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which has set the traffic

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Ask the right questions

Ask the right questions

🕔02:03, 13.Nov 2018

Regional view – Europe One way or another, we do expect the words “trade,” “exports” and “China” to pop up with a bit more frequency in next year’s ECB press conferences

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Investors focus on us-china trade talks

Investors focus on us-china trade talks

🕔11:02, 10.Nov 2018

Market flash : The equity market rebound continued but with a little more volatility. The unsurprising US midterm results reassured investors. Any other outcome would have worried them. A Republican clean sweep would have allowed the Trump administration to prolong

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The great supply chain migration

The great supply chain migration

🕔01:02, 6.Nov 2018

Regional view – Asia  If the US's trade campaign has taught Chinese policymakers one thing, it's that they need to speed up their ambition to become completely self-dependent – be it in agriculture or technology fields. 

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The Impact of Tariffs: So Far, So Little

The Impact of Tariffs: So Far, So Little

🕔11:02, 5.Nov 2018

Investment Strategy Insights  Economists posit that tariffs are the equivalent of pouring cold water into a nicely warmed pot. At this point in the US-China tariff skirmish, however, the classical cookbook’s rules don’t seem to be yielding the expected results. 

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Asset Allocation Consensus June

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Sign up on #OpinioPro to read all the latest research on #fixedincome, #assetallocation and so much more! Click here: https://t.co/90NYM4HBVh

In UBP's Monthly #Investment #Outlook they write: "After Q1 global weakness, world growth is expected to stabilise in Q2 and progressively recover moving into 2H19". Read the whole outlook here: https://t.co/jlNTFp5V6M

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