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From Trade War to Trade Talks?

From Trade War to Trade Talks?

🕔13:02, 16.Apr 2019

 Macro Weekly Talks on trade between the US and EU and Japan look to be on the cards The spectre of a trade war has haunted a global economy this year already struggling with the lagged effects of the tightening

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Monthly Commodity Insights

Monthly Commodity Insights

🕔13:02, 16.Apr 2019

Trade talk optimism lifts prices, but price gains become smaller We think that in the months ahead, commodity prices will be influenced by the trade deal narrative. Positive news from the talks will lift commodity prices further (such as industrial

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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

🕔11:02, 5.Apr 2019

The trade war being waged by the U.S. against some of its main economic partners ostensibly aimed to “level the playing field” in response to trade balances perceived to be unfair. A year or so in, has it succeeded and,

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China and the US soon to reach agreement on trade issues?

China and the US soon to reach agreement on trade issues?

🕔03:07, 23.Feb 2019

Week Ahead Next week will see the end of the 90-day period granted by the US to the Chinese leadership to make progress on the trade dispute at the negotiating table. Should the talks fail, the US threatens to raise

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China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations

China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations

🕔13:04, 11.Feb 2019

Progress in trade talks, soft landing ongoing The recent statements following the bilateral meetings between the US and China suggest that important progress has been made, and more details are emerging compared to the quiet early January round. However the

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Uncertainty Kinks the World’s Supply Chains

Uncertainty Kinks the World’s Supply Chains

🕔11:02, 10.Dec 2018

Investment Strategy Insights  Uncertain as to whether today’s trade disputes will harden into permanently elevated tariffs or become merely an interim step on the way to lower overall trade obstacles, US corporations – caught in the middle as governments joust

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Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now?

Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now?

🕔08:30, 8.Dec 2018

With a “classical” trade war, the impact would be similar to the damages during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and it could be much worse for the very open economies.”

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Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now? What Impacts?

Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now? What Impacts?

🕔08:30, 30.Nov 2018

Abstract 2018 will remain a landmark year, one that goes hand in hand with an increase in trade tariff measures and that marks the intensification of the trade dispute between the United States and countries such as China, Mexico and

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How are trade taxes affecting trade?

How are trade taxes affecting trade?

🕔01:03, 27.Nov 2018

Regional view – Europe "Taxing trade is an economic negative, but companies have been able to evade some of the trade tariffs." 

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Is The WTO Losing Relevance?

Is The WTO Losing Relevance?

🕔11:03, 19.Nov 2018

Weekly Economic Commentary Without traffic rules, movement on the world’s roads, rails and ports would be chaotic. In a similar way, global trade would be disorderly in the absence of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which has set the traffic

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Ask the right questions

Ask the right questions

🕔02:03, 13.Nov 2018

Regional view – Europe One way or another, we do expect the words “trade,” “exports” and “China” to pop up with a bit more frequency in next year’s ECB press conferences

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Investors focus on us-china trade talks

Investors focus on us-china trade talks

🕔11:02, 10.Nov 2018

Market flash : The equity market rebound continued but with a little more volatility. The unsurprising US midterm results reassured investors. Any other outcome would have worried them. A Republican clean sweep would have allowed the Trump administration to prolong

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The great supply chain migration

The great supply chain migration

🕔01:02, 6.Nov 2018

Regional view – Asia  If the US's trade campaign has taught Chinese policymakers one thing, it's that they need to speed up their ambition to become completely self-dependent – be it in agriculture or technology fields. 

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The Impact of Tariffs: So Far, So Little

The Impact of Tariffs: So Far, So Little

🕔11:02, 5.Nov 2018

Investment Strategy Insights  Economists posit that tariffs are the equivalent of pouring cold water into a nicely warmed pot. At this point in the US-China tariff skirmish, however, the classical cookbook’s rules don’t seem to be yielding the expected results. 

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Lessons from Japan’s trade war (1970-1990s)

Lessons from Japan’s trade war (1970-1990s)

🕔01:02, 30.Oct 2018

Regional view – Asia So, with history seemingly repeating itself, China might want to consider Japan's experience in its poker game with the US. 

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Tweets and trade tensions

Tweets and trade tensions

🕔15:02, 28.Oct 2018

The Macro Report  The outlook for global economic growth is easing because of trade tariffs, weakness in emerging markets, and rising oil prices. In the United States, growth will remain steady this year but is expected to slow in 2019

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Will trade wars end the cycle?

Will trade wars end the cycle?

🕔15:02, 28.Oct 2018

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint October 2018 The trade wars between the US and China have escalated with another round of tariffs from both sides. We expect the dispute to be prolonged with all trade between the two nations being subject

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Q&A on free trade and market outlooks

Q&A on free trade and market outlooks

🕔14:03, 22.Oct 2018

What do you think about the current free trade narrative? Everyone uses the term “free trade”, but that doesn’t necessarily mean trade is fair. Trade is critical to the smooth functioning of an economy, and I’m a big proponent of

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Q&A on free trade and market outlooks

Q&A on free trade and market outlooks

🕔14:03, 22.Oct 2018

What do you think about the current free trade narrative? Everyone uses the term “free trade”, but that doesn’t necessarily mean trade is fair. Trade is critical to the smooth functioning of an economy, and I’m a big proponent of

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The danger of elevated trade frictions

The danger of elevated trade frictions

🕔14:03, 15.Oct 2018

Macro  And  Market  Perspectives   October 2018 Elevated trade protectionism marks the greatest downside risk to the global expansion and is a prime driver of heightened macro uncertainty, in our view. The US trade conflict with China is at the heart

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The state of global trade tariffs in 6 charts

The state of global trade tariffs in 6 charts

🕔14:00, 1.Oct 2018

Global trade tensions are on the rise. And while much of the attention has centered on a series of retaliatory tariffs between the United States and China, trade disputes with European and North American allies also have strained traditionally friendly

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Why China’s row with the US matters to Europe

Why China’s row with the US matters to Europe

🕔03:04, 25.Sep 2018

Regional view – Europe "Europe cannot sit back and view the trans-Pacific trade dispute as entertainment. It is not a mere bystander in the ring of this US – China fight.

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Trade conflict: escalation? For now, not with credits

Trade conflict: escalation? For now, not with credits

🕔04:05, 21.Sep 2018

Credit Markets Weekly Most recent US measures were not entirely surprising So far, the European credit markets have not reacted to the recent development in the trade conflict between USA and China. In fact, spreads have even narrowed slightly. This

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After the iPhone XS, an iPhone US?

After the iPhone XS, an iPhone US?

🕔02:03, 18.Sep 2018

UBS House View – Weekly Global Trade negotiations remain a key theme for markets. Reuters reported that a second round of talks between the US and Japan could take place on 21 September, and other reports suggest that the US

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Trade Wars Trigger Headline Volatility

Trade Wars Trigger Headline Volatility

🕔13:02, 27.Aug 2018

Fixed Income Perspectives august 2018 Moving into the second half of 2018, trade concerns continue to dominate the financial market narrative. While the economic impact remains to be seen, ongoing trade tensions are likely to create additional episodes of volatility

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