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Set phasers to one –trade war pause

Set phasers to one –trade war pause

🕔13:39, 23.jan 2020

Theme of the month: Set phasers to one –trade war interregnum   The US and China signed a ‘Phase One’ trade deal. The deal included a modest lowering of some US tariffs on China, in return for an ambitious $200bn

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In the Year of the Rat, think even longer term

In the Year of the Rat, think even longer term

🕔06:28, 22.jan 2020

Active is: Sharing insights This Chinese New Year, more than a billion people globally will celebrate the Year of the Rat. We believe investors everywhere can also find reason to celebrate China as a source of continued economic growth. Even if US-China

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The recessionary cloud is about to lift

The recessionary cloud is about to lift

🕔16:58, 20.jan 2020

Take the lead – Global Insights 2020 The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that

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An exceptional year for bonds, but finding yield got harder

An exceptional year for bonds, but finding yield got harder

🕔08:06, 17.jan 2020

2020 income outlook The bond market in 2019 was a double-edged sword. Investors pocketed sizable capital gains in most sectors, thanks to plummeting rates. But the flip side hurts: As has often been the case since the 2008 financial crisis, the search for yield

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Geopolitical risks on our 2020 radar

Geopolitical risks on our 2020 radar

🕔08:09, 15.jan 2020

Weekly commentary  • The recent sharp escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions serves as a reminder of the potential for flare-ups in geopolitical risks as we enter 2020. • We see global growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next six

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Voorkeur voor aandelen ten opzichte van obligaties blijft gehandhaafd

Voorkeur voor aandelen ten opzichte van obligaties blijft gehandhaafd

🕔14:41, 13.jan 2020

Maandbericht beleggen De spanningen in het Midden-Oosten, opnieuw aangewakkerd door de Amerikaanse aanslag op de Iraanse generaal Soleimani, beheersen sinds een kleine week het nieuws en leiden tot nervositeit op de financiële markten. Ondanks de de-escalatie van de handelsoorlog tussen

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Outlook & Convictions

Outlook & Convictions

🕔13:44, 13.jan 2020

Even without an increase in tension with Iran, global growth this year should slow further due to the US presidential campaign, higher customs tariffs remaining in place and Chinese abnegation. THE TRADE WAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT GLOBAL GROWTH The

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Erste Group Research Eurozone

Erste Group Research Eurozone

🕔09:59, 13.jan 2020

China – Leading indicators rising China will release GDP growth data for 4Q19 next week. In line with the long-term trend, China's GDP growth in 3Q dropped to +6.0% (previously +6.2%). However, the growth slowed somewhat more than before during

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Portfolio Manager Perspectives Mark Dowding’s Global Macro Update

Portfolio Manager Perspectives Mark Dowding’s Global Macro Update

🕔10:56, 31.dec 2019

Person of the Year 2020? Bolstered by election success, Conservatives dream of PM Boris being next year’s award winner. Global bond yields traded higher towards the end of this week as investors seized on constructive headlines pertaining to a China

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No One Has Won the Trade War…Yet

No One Has Won the Trade War…Yet

🕔07:00, 25.dec 2019

It is too early for either China or the United States to claim victory following the ‘Phase 1’ agreement announced last week. The ongoing 5G debate in Germany may hold the key for the US credibly to claim victory towards

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It is getting (a bit) clearer

It is getting (a bit) clearer

🕔15:53, 17.dec 2019

Global macro risks receding. As 2019 is drawing to a close, the major global macro risks are receding. The US will not implement the round of tariff hikes on Chinese products scheduled for 15 December while the UK elections have

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What the US-China trade deal means for global growth

What the US-China trade deal means for global growth

🕔12:44, 17.dec 2019

At rst glance, the "phase one" US-China trade deal looks to slightly exceed our expectations, suggesting modest upside to our economic growth forecasts. China and the US have agreed to a “phase one” trade deal, bringing a ceasefire at least

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2020 outlook: Expecting the unexpected

2020 outlook: Expecting the unexpected

🕔17:55, 9.dec 2019

Panorama Shock tactics A new year and a new decade approach, yet at first glance the major challenges to investors look set to remain unerringly familiar. A crystal ball for predicting the course of 2020 would be top of the

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Trade conflict US/China, elections in the UK, monetary policy decisions of the US Fed and the ECB

Trade conflict US/China, elections in the UK, monetary policy decisions of the US Fed and the ECB

🕔09:45, 9.dec 2019

Week Ahead  Trade agreement before December 15? The most important event for the global markets next week will be the decision on further US tariffs on Chinese imports from December 15. This will affect annual imports of about USD 150bn;

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The Next Recession

The Next Recession

🕔13:44, 7.dec 2019

Economic Outlook Presentation Recession Odds Recession Triggers Road to Recession Policy Response How Severe a Downturn  

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Contagion may be spreading through the global economy

Contagion may be spreading through the global economy

🕔13:25, 7.dec 2019

Allocation views The global economy continues to face headwinds, and risks are mounting. Trade tensions are spreading from country to country, and increasingly, manufacturing weakness is starting to infect the much larger service sector. Recurring equity market declines appear likely

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2020 Outlook – Optimistic, but limited upside

2020 Outlook – Optimistic, but limited upside

🕔13:24, 7.dec 2019

Geopolitical détente reduces uncertainty Our outlook for 2020 is relatively optimistic, predicated on the ongoing improvement in recent geopolitical developments – or at least a lack of deterioration thereof. In our view, the US-China trade war remains the single most

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Early signs of stabilization

Early signs of stabilization

🕔12:48, 6.dec 2019

Downside risks to global growth have shrunk in recent months. But we do not see much potential for an upside surprise either. In recent months, leading economic indicators stabilized. We remain somewhat hopeful that a truce in the trade war between China

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AllianceBernstein – Trade Wars, Elections and Value Rotation

🕔15:30, 3.dec 2019

Trade Wars, Elections and Value Rotation – Oh My. What’s next? In today’s volatile world the “What is Next?” question is on every investors’ mind. Despite all the geopolitical and economic uncertainties the US equity markets performed well this year,

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Global Outlook

Global Outlook

🕔08:28, 3.dec 2019

Global Outlook Markets are being dominated by the US/China trade war and fears about slowing global growth. In this month’s Global Outlook, we discuss how investment teams across ASI are addressing these issues. 

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The Delicate Art Of Profit Allocation

The Delicate Art Of Profit Allocation

🕔16:29, 21.nov 2019

The coming months will bring with them a change in context. In addition to the five major sources of uncertainty that have rocked the market since the beginning of the year, there is now a new feature in the landscape:

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Macro Weekly – Weak Chinese data suggest trade deal crucial

Macro Weekly – Weak Chinese data suggest trade deal crucial

🕔17:52, 20.nov 2019

My colleague Arjen van Dijkhuizen commented on ‘hard’ Chinese data already: here. Industrial production growth fell back to 4.7% yoy in October, down from 5.8% in September. Retail sales growth fell back to 7.2% yoy from 7.8% and investment in

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SDGs: Challenge and opportunity

SDGs: Challenge and opportunity

🕔10:01, 18.nov 2019

SDGs: Challenge and opportunity by Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele With markets focused on the back-and-forth in US-China trade negotiations it's easy to forget that, behind the headlines, there are other longer-term challenges that we face as a society.

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Trade and Tariff Uncertainty: A Bottom-Up Perspective on Managing Macro Headwinds

Trade and Tariff Uncertainty: A Bottom-Up Perspective on Managing Macro Headwinds

🕔16:35, 13.nov 2019

US and China trade-related uncertainties and the associated financial risks are unlikely to be resolved soon. A company's ability to weather the tariff-related headwinds of rising costs, compressing margins and the potential loss of market share depends on its ability

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Consider This

Consider This

🕔18:50, 11.nov 2019

On the Markets As we head toward the end of the third quarter, I can’t help but think it feels very similar to last year in many ways. The S&P 500 is trading right where it was a year ago, near its all-time

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De best gelezen #research bij @Opinio_Pro:

#1 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts #GMO

#2 2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions @InvescoEMEA

#3 What the heart already knew @TriodosIM @TriodosNL

#4 From TINA to FOMO @DWS_Group

-> https://www.opiniopro.com/

Global Asset Allocation Views Q1 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/jp-morgan/global-asset-allocation-views-q1-2020/ #AssetAllocation #credit #equites #Equities #FixedIncome via @JPMorganAM

Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/amundi/economic-resilience-fed-and-elections-to-drive-us-markets-in-2020-2/ #consumption #election #monetarypolicy via @Amundi_ENG

The US federal reserve’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment has arrived -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/ubp/the-us-federal-reserves-whatever-it-takes-moment-has-arrived/ #AssetAllocation #centralbank #credit #ECB #Equities #FED #USA

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