BII Global weekly commentary We up our strategic overweight to developed market (DM) equities, but near term elevated geopolitical tensions keep our tactical shopping basket on hold. Equities retreated as investors took renewed fright over the military stand-off involving Ukraine,
"Moreover, an end to the trade war does not mean the end to the tech war. There is a strong consensus in the US for curbing China’s access to critical technologies. Biden is unlikely to reverse the Trump administration’s tech
“The ultimate shape of either candidate’s infrastructure plan would depend heavily on the balance of power in the Senate.”
The global economy, undermined by the trade war between Washington and Beijing, was already showing signs of slowing in 2019. It was hit hard by the COVID-19 epidemic. The containment and exceptional means decided by governments to limit risks have
Market Compass – February 2020 Just as the US/China trade truce provided broad-based relief, the new Coronavirus in China is unsettling global financial markets. The fast-spreading disease is challenging the global macro rebound, but we still see resilience in the US
TRADE: Though phase 1 of the US-China trade deal will go into effect on Feb. 14, the scope of the agreement is limited in its specifications. We expect enforcement to become a key focus going forward. Our base case remains
No recession in sight. Focus moves to environmental issues. A key focus of 2020 will, we think, be ‘green spending’. It is set to move to the forefront in Europe and China; and be a major presidential election issue in
– As the trade war related uncertainty has faded we expect an inventory driven rebound in global growth over the coming 3-6 months Despite, in isolation, high valuations on all asset classes we expect this will be enough to fuel
Compass 2020 Outlook Signing off 2019 and ushering in 2020 As the world economy revives unsteadily from its latest swoon, we use this edition of Compass to discuss both what happened in 2019 and some things to think about for
2020 Global Outlook Growth should edge higher in 2020, limiting recession risks. This is a favorable backdrop for risk assets. But the dovish central bank pivot that drove markets in 2019 is largely behind us. Inflation risks look underappreciated, and
Commodities and the energy space in particular have been challenged by the coronavirus outbreak. How the infection rate evolves over the upcoming days and weeks will be critical, especially to the oil-price outlook. Chinese copper importers have declared force majeure.
While 2019 proved a buoyant year for all financial markets, the first weeks of 2020 have proved volatile. Asian investors who remember previous corrections are looking for sophisticated strategies fit for all market conditions.
Key takeaways: While China and the US were keen to sign a ceasefire agreement (‘phase one’) to the trade war, substantive issues have been deferred until after the US election in November 2020. We should not expect significant stimulus from
2020 is begonnen met de ondertekening van een gedeeltelijk handelsakkoord door de VS en China. Wat een verschil in een jaar tijd! De handelsoorlog die heel 2019 heeft gewoed, de aandelen uit de groeilanden naar beneden heeft getrokken en de
De dreigende verspreiding van het coronavirus in afwachting van de ontdekking van een vaccin heeft de nanciële markten door elkaar geschud. De tariefverlagingen die China had gepland voor een jaarlijks volume van $ 75 mld. aan Amerikaanse goederen, zorgde voor enige opluchting.
The US labor market continues to develop strongly, with 225,000 new jobs created in January (market expectations: 165,000). The unemployment rate remains at a historically low level of 3.6% and average hourly wages have increased by 3.1% y/y. The labor
Macro Views Housing is poised to emerge from its slowdown on the back of three rate cuts, though broader economic conditions will likely moderate any pickup Tariffs have thrown a wrench into trade data. Soured global conditions have complicated global
We strongly disagree with the assessment that the US and Europe are heading to a recession. The macro is still running slightly above potential in the US and in Europe. There is not enough leverage from households, a necessary condition
Italy –further increased political uncertainty This week, Luigi Di Maio resigned as head of the Five Star Movement. However, he remains a member of the government in his capacity as foreign minister. As senior partner of the Italian government, the
Theme of the month: Set phasers to one –trade war interregnum The US and China signed a ‘Phase One’ trade deal. The deal included a modest lowering of some US tariffs on China, in return for an ambitious $200bn
Active is: Sharing insights This Chinese New Year, more than a billion people globally will celebrate the Year of the Rat. We believe investors everywhere can also find reason to celebrate China as a source of continued economic growth. Even if US-China
Take the lead – Global Insights 2020 The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that
2020 income outlook The bond market in 2019 was a double-edged sword. Investors pocketed sizable capital gains in most sectors, thanks to plummeting rates. But the flip side hurts: As has often been the case since the 2008 financial crisis, the search for yield
Weekly commentary • The recent sharp escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions serves as a reminder of the potential for flare-ups in geopolitical risks as we enter 2020. • We see global growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next six
Maandbericht beleggen De spanningen in het Midden-Oosten, opnieuw aangewakkerd door de Amerikaanse aanslag op de Iraanse generaal Soleimani, beheersen sinds een kleine week het nieuws en leiden tot nervositeit op de financiële markten. Ondanks de de-escalatie van de handelsoorlog tussen
Even without an increase in tension with Iran, global growth this year should slow further due to the US presidential campaign, higher customs tariffs remaining in place and Chinese abnegation. THE TRADE WAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT GLOBAL GROWTH The
China – Leading indicators rising China will release GDP growth data for 4Q19 next week. In line with the long-term trend, China's GDP growth in 3Q dropped to +6.0% (previously +6.2%). However, the growth slowed somewhat more than before during
Person of the Year 2020? Bolstered by election success, Conservatives dream of PM Boris being next year’s award winner. Global bond yields traded higher towards the end of this week as investors seized on constructive headlines pertaining to a China
It is too early for either China or the United States to claim victory following the ‘Phase 1’ agreement announced last week. The ongoing 5G debate in Germany may hold the key for the US credibly to claim victory towards
Global macro risks receding. As 2019 is drawing to a close, the major global macro risks are receding. The US will not implement the round of tariff hikes on Chinese products scheduled for 15 December while the UK elections have
At rst glance, the "phase one" US-China trade deal looks to slightly exceed our expectations, suggesting modest upside to our economic growth forecasts. China and the US have agreed to a “phase one” trade deal, bringing a ceasefire at least
Panorama Shock tactics A new year and a new decade approach, yet at first glance the major challenges to investors look set to remain unerringly familiar. A crystal ball for predicting the course of 2020 would be top of the
Week Ahead Trade agreement before December 15? The most important event for the global markets next week will be the decision on further US tariffs on Chinese imports from December 15. This will affect annual imports of about USD 150bn;
Economic Outlook Presentation Recession Odds Recession Triggers Road to Recession Policy Response How Severe a Downturn
Allocation views The global economy continues to face headwinds, and risks are mounting. Trade tensions are spreading from country to country, and increasingly, manufacturing weakness is starting to infect the much larger service sector. Recurring equity market declines appear likely
Geopolitical détente reduces uncertainty Our outlook for 2020 is relatively optimistic, predicated on the ongoing improvement in recent geopolitical developments – or at least a lack of deterioration thereof. In our view, the US-China trade war remains the single most
Downside risks to global growth have shrunk in recent months. But we do not see much potential for an upside surprise either. In recent months, leading economic indicators stabilized. We remain somewhat hopeful that a truce in the trade war between China
Global Outlook Markets are being dominated by the US/China trade war and fears about slowing global growth. In this month’s Global Outlook, we discuss how investment teams across ASI are addressing these issues.
The coming months will bring with them a change in context. In addition to the five major sources of uncertainty that have rocked the market since the beginning of the year, there is now a new feature in the landscape:
My colleague Arjen van Dijkhuizen commented on ‘hard’ Chinese data already: here. Industrial production growth fell back to 4.7% yoy in October, down from 5.8% in September. Retail sales growth fell back to 7.2% yoy from 7.8% and investment in
SDGs: Challenge and opportunity by Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele With markets focused on the back-and-forth in US-China trade negotiations it's easy to forget that, behind the headlines, there are other longer-term challenges that we face as a society.
US and China trade-related uncertainties and the associated financial risks are unlikely to be resolved soon. A company's ability to weather the tariff-related headwinds of rising costs, compressing margins and the potential loss of market share depends on its ability
On the Markets As we head toward the end of the third quarter, I can’t help but think it feels very similar to last year in many ways. The S&P 500 is trading right where it was a year ago, near its all-time
Maandbericht beleggen Wij handhaven de overweging van aandelen en onderweging van obligaties De nervositeit onder beleggers is sinds begin oktober weer toegenomen. Belangrijkste aanleiding hiervoor zijn de tegenvallende ISM-inkoopmanagersindices voor de Amerikaanse productie- en dienstensector. Deze daalden harder dan verwacht
Highlights The trade war did not escalate further in October. It is too early to assess the damage that has already been inflicted on the economy. Whether we will witness a recession or not will depend on the resilience of
Summary Global equities are trading at unsustainable valuations given the deterioration of the growth outlook over 2019 and especially following the drop in tactical leading indicators for the US over September The Phase 1 trade deal between the US and China is in
The recent drop in political risk is a significant shift in a climate of almost constant one-upmanship. It is highly likely that hopes over a US-China deal and the diminishing risk of a hard Brexit mainly reflect the willingness of all concerned
Asset Allocation Navigator Fourth quarter 2019 Central banks cutting interest rates helps, but can’t fully offset the drag on growth from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. The ‘skinny’ trade deal between the US and China suspends a planned tariff increase in mid-October, but
In Short While some data misses continue, especially in manufacturing and in Europe, we believe that economic releases are pointing towards a stabilization in growth. Optimism is spreading that the worst may be behind us, thanks to improvements in the
Trade Wars, Elections and Value Rotation – Oh My. What’s next? In today’s volatile world the “What is Next?” question is on every investors’ mind. Despite all the geopolitical and economic uncertainties the US equity markets performed well this year,
