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US/China trade war undermines the outlook for equities

US/China trade war undermines the outlook for equities

🕔07:59, 19.sep 2019

For the past 10 years, I have been positive about the prospects for equities. But at the end of May, I downgraded my view to neutral as the trade war between the US and China escalated. The rhetoric between the

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This Month’s Topic Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

This Month’s Topic Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

🕔15:10, 18.sep 2019

The summer months have been eventful. On the (geo)-political level, the sources of tension have multiplied globally. On the economic front, the growth momentum has weakened further, confirming the downward trend observed worldwide since April, with the deepening of the

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Measuring the market impact of geopolitics

Measuring the market impact of geopolitics

🕔16:26, 11.sep 2019

Geopolitical risk is on the rise and investors will increasingly need to take it into account in the coming years. Our analysis looks at how it can impact portfolios and what investors can do about it in terms of strategy.

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How trade wars are weakening the BRICs

How trade wars are weakening the BRICs

🕔15:31, 11.sep 2019

Craig Botham explains why the economics team has downgraded the growth outlook across the BRIC economies this quarter, with weakness in 2020 driven by the trade war.

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Investing in a 50:50 World

Investing in a 50:50 World

🕔14:36, 11.sep 2019

Speed read China-US trade deal has been delayed, expect more volatility Look for structural changes: China stimulus and global IT supply chains Best opportunities remain outside of the US, as long as we have a trade deal 

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Back to school: our themes put to the test

Back to school: our themes put to the test

🕔07:27, 9.sep 2019

U.S.-China trade tensions have escalated, echoing our midyear outlook protectionist push theme, and bond yields have fallen to new lows. We do not see a near-term recession, with no clear signs of financial vulnerabilities and central banks helping extend the

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Weekly Market Update: Inverted Yield Curve, New Tariffs this Week

Weekly Market Update: Inverted Yield Curve, New Tariffs this Week

🕔08:02, 6.sep 2019

The U.S. yield curve inverted last Tuesday, raising worries of recession, while the trade war escalates this week as China and the U.S. exchange taris. Despite increased concerns on the U.S. yield curve, global equities gained 2.0% last week with

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Economic Commentary: Europe Flirts With Recession

Economic Commentary: Europe Flirts With Recession

🕔16:44, 5.sep 2019

Global trade tensions are taking their toll, leaving Europe struggling for solutions. The city of Biarritz is part of the pays de Basque, which spans southwestern France and north-central Spain. The Basques’ unique cultural identity has often led to separatist

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How trade wars are rocking the wobbly world economy

How trade wars are rocking the wobbly world economy

🕔13:30, 5.sep 2019

Following the latest escalation of tensions, we are downgrading our forecasts for growth.  The trade wars are taking a toll on the outlook for the world economy. We now expect global growth of 2.6% this year and 2.4% next (previous

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Another step in the trade war escalation

Another step in the trade war escalation

🕔13:25, 3.sep 2019

Another escalation in the US-China trade war led the S&P 500 to fall 2.6% today. Global equities dropped 2.1%, and yields on all US Treasury maturities fell at least 8 basis points. News broke early in the day that China

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A further escalation in trade tensions

A further escalation in trade tensions

🕔13:06, 3.sep 2019

Trade tensions escalated after China announced additional tariffs on US goods and the US retaliated with an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell refrained from providing a clear steer on future interest rate policy, but reiterated

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Trump slump drags the world along

Trump slump drags the world along

🕔12:01, 3.sep 2019

US-China tensions escalated further a week ago. In response to fresh US tariffs (10%) on USD 300bn of imports from China announced on 1 August (to be implemented in two stages on 1 September and 15 December), China retaliated on

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Asia’s Lingering Trade Woes

Asia’s Lingering Trade Woes

🕔09:56, 3.sep 2019

Global markets and multi-asset portfolios It has been more than a year since the start of the U.S.-China trade dispute and resolution seems no closer at hand. Instead, trade tensions intensified in August. The trade truce reached at the Osaka

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US-China Trade Deal Hopes Fade With a Weaker Yuan

US-China Trade Deal Hopes Fade With a Weaker Yuan

🕔12:50, 22.aug 2019

The fall in the value of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar and the Trump administration’s subsequent designation of China as a “currency manipulator” opened a new front in the US-China trade dispute, but one that came hardly as

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Global markets and multi-asset portfolios

Global markets and multi-asset portfolios

🕔07:26, 20.aug 2019

The tug-of-war between trade tensions and easy monetary policy has been evenly balanced so far this year. However, the balance might be shifting as policy shows signs of fatigue and trade war concerns persist despite a Trump Administration decision to

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Will a trade war push the U.S. economy into recession?

Will a trade war push the U.S. economy into recession?

🕔17:50, 19.aug 2019

The past few weeks have seen a fundamentally changed investment environment in the U.S.. Since July 31, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, the 8/19/2019 Will a trade war push the U.S.

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How to navigate escalating trade disputes

How to navigate escalating trade disputes

🕔19:28, 14.aug 2019

The recent escalation in U.S.-China tensions reinforces our view that trade and geopolitical frictions have become the key driver of the global economy and markets. We stress the importance of portfolio resilience in this environment, yet view the decisively dovish

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Trade War Fears May Be Strong, but Fundamentals Are Stronger

Trade War Fears May Be Strong, but Fundamentals Are Stronger

🕔13:46, 14.aug 2019

In volatile times like these – trade war fears or not – we believe global equity investors should stay focused on the fundamentals. The combined economic outlook for the world’s two largest economies, the US and China, is much improved

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US-China trade tensions escalate

US-China trade tensions escalate

🕔19:51, 13.aug 2019

On Thursday 1 August, US President Trump unexpectedly announced a plan to move forward with an additional 10% tariff on USD300bn worth of imported Chinese goods. The move is in addition to the USD250bn of Chinese products already subject to

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Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

🕔14:28, 13.aug 2019

The plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, down 35 basis points over the past two weeks, indicates growing investor unease about the resilience of the economy to seemingly unrelenting policy shocks. Those concerns are not irrational. Although we have argued on

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US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

🕔13:04, 13.aug 2019

Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in

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U.s. Economic & interest rate outlook

U.s. Economic & interest rate outlook

🕔10:31, 12.aug 2019

A Long, Hot Summer The trade truce between China and the United States was short-lived. In a flurry of economic news following a fruitless negotiation round, the United States threatened new tariffs on all imports from China; China cancelled U.S.

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On the escalation path

On the escalation path

🕔18:50, 7.aug 2019

For now, the trade conflict between China and the U.S. is unlikely to ease. Markets are understandably nervous.  Last week, the U.S. President once again shocked the markets by announcing that all imports from China will be subject to punitive

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Trump tweet for central banks

Trump tweet for central banks

🕔13:26, 5.aug 2019

Focus: Trade war US/China, US labor market report President Trump surprised the markets on Thursday with the announcement that USD 300bn in imports from China would be subject to a tariff rate of 10 percent from September 1. This announcement

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EM Fixed Income

EM Fixed Income

🕔13:07, 5.aug 2019

Current Strategy | August 2019   We see a range trading environment for EM, supported by Fed monetary easing and likely easing by other major developed and EM central banks. This should offset President Trump’s latest threat to impose new tariffs

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