Investors Bet on a Recovery
Markets continued to focus on hopes for a recovery rather than risks. The epidemic seems to be slowing in the United States and in United Kingdom. It appears to be under control in Europe.
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The Next Leg of Recovery
2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.
Less interest, in negative interest rates.
Less interest, in negative interest rates. Markets at a glance – 8 February 2021 It was a game of two halves for macro markets last week. Italy won in the end, with the UK coming last. For Italian bonds, spreads
Columbia Threadneedle Investments – Webinar – Resurrection of a deplorable asset class!
Webinar – Resurrection of a deplorable asset class! Join us on Tuesday, 9 February at 13:30 GMT / 14:30 CET as Richard Colwell (Head of UK Equities) and James Thorne present their views on the current market environment for UK Equities. Also joining will be Sonal Sagar who will look at
The EU-UK trade deal leaves open questions
The EU-UK trade deal leaves open questions But the exclusion of some areas brings opportunity for reform. The wait is finally over. Four‑and‑a‑half years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has exited the European Union’s single market and customs union,
Welcome back Ms Yellen!
Recent news about the COVID-19 pandemic has been worrying, with more contagious strains of the virus spreading internationally, rising contamination rates, and healthcare systems on the verge of being overwhelmed, particularly in the UK and the US.
Aegon AM – Webinar – Wat brengt 2021?
Webinar – Wat brengt 2021? 2020 gaat de boeken in als een jaar met vele extreme gebeurtenissen. Het virus zorgde voor een ongekende economische krimp, enorme steunpakketten en volatiele financiële markten. Wat staat ons te wachten in 2021? Kan de
UK Defined Benefit Pension Schemes Should Prepare for Negative Interest Rates
UK Defined Benefit Pension Schemes Should Prepare for Negative Interest Rates T. Rowe Price Insights on Fixed Income Negative interest rates are likely coming to the UK, but you would not know that judging from the markets. Although rates are
A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets
As widely expected, the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods. This means that EU-UK trade will be much less affected than if the UK had ‘crashed out’ without a deal, to be governed solely
UK Investors Should Prepare for Negative Interest Rates
The role of gilts in portfolios could be impacted. Negative interest rates are likely coming to the UK, but you would not know that judging from the markets. Although rates are widely expected to fall, implied policy rates show that the
The Sanitary Situation Deteriorates
Market Flash Falling temperatures have exacerbated the global sanitary situation. In Europe, Germany and the UK reinforced restrictions. Cases have also started rising again in Asia, a worry for Japan and South Korea which had managed to control the first
Fiscal Forward Guidance
We explore this week the possible “exit strategy” from the ongoing extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus. Drawing on Olivier Blanchard’ recent research, we argue that the current EU fiscal surveillance framework may … Key points The current EU fiscal surveillance
Policy hurdles, political dilemmas
After some U-turns from the US President and although discussions are continuing, no deal has been found on a new fiscal stimulus package. The Fed has been very explicit on the necessity of a timely and comprehensive additional budgetary push
UK equities: in need of a vaccine!
UK equities in a ‘doom-loop’ We have seen something of a recovery in global markets since the pandemic struck, but this is very much the first pulse1. This was always going to be significant, given the magnitude and speed of
Gravity wins in the end
Research & Strategy Insights The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to
The return of the Brexit saga
Like a long-running TV series, the latest season of the Brexit saga brings new drama and tension. Like all good drama, there are twists and turns in the plot, unclear motivations of key characters, complexity and new set-piece showdowns. Last
Weekly Market Recap
Summary for the week ending on Friday, 30 July Last week’s corporate earnings reports demonstrated that some major companies are benefiting from the pandemic’s impact on consumer patterns. This was on clear display Thursday evening, when Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple and
Finding certainty in uncertain times
LCP pensions de-risking report: Buy-ins, buy-outs and longevity swaps 2019 was a remarkable year with buy-in and buy-out volumes in the UK hitting a record £43.8bn. This followed on the heels of 2018 which itself was an exceptional year reaching
Bank dividend bans: Three market implications
Regulators in the UK and Europe have introduced a de-facto ban on bank dividends. The rationale for this is that banks provide a critical part of the monetary transmission mechanism. Regulators want to ensure that banks don’t compromise their ability
Socially (Un) Acceptable
Global Matters Weekly You tend not to hear too much from the city of Leicester here in the UK but it has played host to a number of historical events over the years and I’m proud to say I lived
Brexit moving back onto the agenda
Research Blast It feels like a different era whereby every conversation around the UK commercial real estate market evolved around the topic of Brexit. Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe, the issue was hardly mentioned. But as transactions in
Weekly Market Recap
Stocks had a poor start to last week, as concerns over the worsening of the pandemic in several states as well as a new outbreak in Beijing seemed to continue weighing on sentiment. The market then rebounded late Monday following
Economic and Political Backdrop
Weekly Market Recap Stocks started last week strong, helped by news of encouraging early test results for a possible coronavirus vaccine. Moderna Therapeutics announced that its …
Economic and Political Backdrop
Weekly Market Recap Stocks recorded their worst day of last week on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 touching its lowest level in three weeks. Many attributed the sell-off to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in which he
Big Figures Looking Smaller
The ECB has to deal with a nasty form of circularity: doubts on its capacity to break its self-imposed limits – further fueled by the recent decision of the German Constitutional Court – trigger bond offloading in some of …
Steering clear of losses
Global Matters Weekly Financial losses come in many shapes and forms and investors rightly spend a considerable amount of time worrying about them but managing loss aversion poorly can make the longterm outcome even worse. It is important to pick
Keep Calm and Carry On
Insights – Global Macro Trends Every crisis has its human element, and how everyone responds to the problem at hand is usually what is most remembered. In 1939, on the verge of World War II, for example, the British government
A new age for UK equities
We are living in extraordinary times. Alex Wright, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Special Situations Fund and Fidelity Special Values PLC discusses his new view on the world, through his old contrarian lens. He explains some of the changes he
UK, a coordinated policy response
Bank of England cuts rates at emergency meeting… Amid increasing challenges to the UK growth outlook and financial market turmoil on the back of the global COVID-19 outbreak, early on 11 March the Bank of England (BoE) announced an emergency
UK Retirement Landscape 2020
Investment Insights In brief The UK retirement industry is on course for meaningful changes in 2020. We observe the following forces as continuing to shape it: ■ Low bond yields and a lower-returning investment environment ■ The continued rise in
Wat een verschil in een jaar tijd!
2020 is begonnen met de ondertekening van een gedeeltelijk handelsakkoord door de VS en China. Wat een verschil in een jaar tijd! De handelsoorlog die heel 2019 heeft gewoed, de aandelen uit de groeilanden naar beneden heeft getrokken en de
Goodbye to the United Kingdom
Chart of the Week Starting tomorrow, February 1, 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) will no longer be a member of the European Union (EU). More than 40 years after joining, majority of UK voters have decided that their countries' future
Why add to (UK) equities?
Asset Allocation update What a difference a year makes. After a bruising 2018, last year allowed investors to capture the second-best return on a blend of global equities and long-dated bonds in 30 years. For stocks it was also a year of
A roadmap to navigate political tensions
Key Messages 1. Lessons from the US-Iran conflict. Last week, Iran executed its announced retaliation, firing missiles against US military bases in Iraq. Oil prices jumped 5% and S&P 500 futures pointed to a 1.7% lower start to the day
UK general elections
Yesterday’s results imply Mr. Johnson will ‘get Brexit done’. However, his plan to get a trade agreement done by the end of 2020 is likely to hit some snags. Indeed, the hard work begins now, and even a bare-bones agreement
Johnson wins UK General Election – Brexit and the cost of election promises
The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson secured a much bigger win in the election than polls had suggested. At the time of writing (1 seat outstanding), the Conservative looked on track to secure 365 seats and a majority of 80. This
The people have spoken, so what next for UK markets?
The near-term impact of the election result has been positive for markets, but what are the longer-term implications for the UK as a destination of global capital? Fidelity Global Special Situations Fund Manager Jeremy Podger gives his view on the
The land that time forgot
Since the 2016 EU referendum, the UK equity market has felt like the land that time forgot. Greater clarity over Brexit and UK politics should not only spur an immediate stock market rally but also encourage a longer-lasting reappraisal of UK-listed companies.
When political risk crosses the Atlantic
Global investment views At the beginning of 2019, all eyes were focused on Europe, not only because of the risk of a Hard Brexit, but also because of the open crisis between the Italian government and the European Commission. The situation
Compass Autumn 2019
Compass In this quarter’s publication, we focus on Europe – in particular to see if it is still an attractive place to invest despite the apparent headwinds. Europe can often appear a somewhat unwitting victim of events outside of its
Last chance for Remain?
The UK votes in a general election on 12 December. Polls point to a Conservative victory, but another hung parliament is also possible In any case, the risk of a disorderly Brexit is now very low With a Conservative majority,
UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?
The outcome of the 12 December UK General Election could allow the UK to finally settle the issue of leaving the European Union (EU). This could be by passing the current negotiated Tory deal, choosing another deal under a Labourled
UK economy rebounds to avoid recession
The first release of UK GDP for the third quarter shows the economy avoided a technical recession. Real GDP growth was 0.3% quarter-on-quarter compared to -0.2% in the second quarter, although the latest figure did disappoint consensus expectations of 0.4%.
Climate Change Reporting Preparing For A Zero-Carbon Future
Matthew Townsend and Sara Feijao of Allen & Overy LLP explain how climate change has risen to be a key concern for large listed companies and the reporting regime with which companies need to comply in the UK. There is
UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
Countdown to Brexit: Will a Christmas Election Deliver Clarity?
December’s poll could lead to a quick exit—or a lengthy delay The UK’s general election on December 12 may finally bring some long‑awaited clarity over Brexit—or it may deliver an extended period of uncertainty and confusion. The poll will almost
Will Brexit wreck it for UK credit?
It is our view that the potentially negative impacts of an unruly departure from the EU are likely to be felt more acutely by the economy itself rather than credit markets As we approach 31 October and the UK’s deadline
Negotiations on trade and Brexit continue, but has progress been made
Last week’s surprise Brexit development was that a private meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar resulted in what was described as a “pathway to a deal” . After weeks of negative reporting, the
Brexit: extension of the deadline is likely, but the final outcome remains uncertain
Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before
Why as an investor I’m looking through Brexit fears
Following the twists and turns in Westminster of the past few weeks I expect many more market participants will simply place UK equities in the “too difficult” basket. Anecdotal stories of overseas investors selling their last UK stocks could start
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Compliance professionals in private banks have adopted new digital technologies to keep their skills and methods up to date. For more details from our Group Head of Risks & Compliance #Raoul_Jacot_Descombes, read his article in @letemps.
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