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Bank of England’s Monetary Policy: Rate Hikes, Inflation, and Economic Impact”

Bank of England’s Monetary Policy: Rate Hikes, Inflation, and Economic Impact”

🕔16:16, 17.May 2023

"Bank of England: First to hike, last to pause and pivot" assesses the recent interest rate hike by the Bank of England and its subsequent challenges. The article highlights the UK's higher-than-expected inflation rate, attributing it to various factors like

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UK Economy Brightens: Inflation Persists, Recession Averted

UK Economy Brightens: Inflation Persists, Recession Averted

🕔14:51, 3.May 2023

The UK economy has had an encouraging start to the year, narrowly avoiding a recession in Q4 2022. Improved GDP and PMI survey results can be attributed to lower energy prices and a rebound in demand. Additionally, easing bottlenecks and

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Quick take: Austerity deferred in the UK

Quick take: Austerity deferred in the UK

🕔08:28, 30.Nov 2022

It is hard to believe but just under eight weeks ago, Kwasi Kwarteng, then UK chancellor, announced his ‘growth plan’ comprising the Truss government’s energy price guarantee and large tax cuts. At the time, I described the announcement as radical

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Assessment of Value Report

Assessment of Value Report

🕔10:34, 16.Nov 2022

We continue to operate in extraordinary times. Just as we are emerging to some sense of normality after the pandemic, the world continues to face instability. In the UK, we are experiencing a cost of living crisis and rising inflation.

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Quick take: Britannia unhinged

Quick take: Britannia unhinged

🕔12:42, 9.Nov 2022

Liz Truss’s defenestration last week exposed deep divisions over economic policy within the UK government and Conservative party. In winning the general election in 2019, Boris Johnson concealed these divisions by promising both higher public spending to his new voters

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The UK’s LDI crisis: lessons for Dutch LDI investors

The UK’s LDI crisis: lessons for Dutch LDI investors

🕔10:27, 9.Nov 2022

The world of Liability Driven Investment (LDI) strategies, one where “boring” is generally viewed as a strong selling point, became headline news in the UK last month. The much-awaited shift away from a low rate environment – generally a good

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Quick take: Britannia unhinged

Quick take: Britannia unhinged

🕔10:00, 31.Oct 2022

Liz Truss’s defenestration last week exposed deep divisions over economic policy within the UK government and Conservative party. In winning the general election in 2019, Boris Johnson concealed these divisions by promising both higher public spending to his new voters

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De obligatiemarkten en de moeilijke evenwichtsoefening van de beleidsmakers

De obligatiemarkten en de moeilijke evenwichtsoefening van de beleidsmakers

🕔20:32, 20.Oct 2022

Het risico op stagflatie maakt het leven van overheden en centrale banken veel moeilijker en het toegenomen risico op beleidsfouten zal de volatiliteit op de obligatiemarkten waarschijnlijk hoog houden. Maar er ontstaan ook beleggingskansen. Het VK ligt de laatste tijd

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Quick take: running the rule over Truss and Kwarteng’s fiscal radicalism

Quick take: running the rule over Truss and Kwarteng’s fiscal radicalism

🕔10:13, 19.Oct 2022

Recent weeks have seen major changes in UK economic policy with the arrival of Liz Truss as Prime Minister and Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor, sparking major controversy and a selloff across gilts and sterling. Taking a step back, it is

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Seeking reasons to buy US equities

Seeking reasons to buy US equities

🕔13:05, 18.Oct 2022

After a 24% year-to-date decline in the S&P 500, we ask what could make us turn positive on equities. A 30% further decline would help but short of that, some combination of the start of recession, VIX above 40 and

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Impact Of Inflation On Residential Mass Market Housing

Impact Of Inflation On Residential Mass Market Housing

🕔10:47, 9.Jun 2022

Mass market residential housing is in structural undersupply. As such, it is a defensive sector. It is not immune to supply chain or inflation risks. The sector has seen inflation in construction costs. To date, these costs have been absorbed

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The Consumer Report

The Consumer Report

🕔08:03, 11.May 2022

Households are about to experience the biggest hit to disposable income in a long time. Rising inflation, continued supply chain constraints and now the Russia-Ukraine war have piled on seemingly all at once. The swelling piggybanks from stashing away cash

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Commodity prices drive differentiation within EMD

Commodity prices drive differentiation within EMD

🕔10:05, 23.Apr 2022

A key channel of contagion to fixed income markets outside of Russia/Ukraine is likely to be through commodity prices. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. The US has

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From rebound to uncertainty

From rebound to uncertainty

🕔15:44, 29.Mar 2022

There’s no doubt the war in Ukraine has clouded the economic outlook. Commodity prices have soared following Russia’s invasion putting more pressure on households’ real disposable income, and dampening growth prospects. But there’s real momentum behind the UK recovery going

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Green hydrogen is finally showing its true colours

Green hydrogen is finally showing its true colours

🕔08:33, 24.Dec 2021

Hydrogen is the most abundant molecule in the universe, found primarily locked in water and hydrocarbons. Its qualities have been known for a long time, and it has been used for more than 100 years as an industrial chemical. While

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UK Real Estate: how to follow a record 2021?

UK Real Estate: how to follow a record 2021?

🕔15:49, 20.Dec 2021

2021 was a standout year for UK real estate, which delivered annualised total returns of 14.7% to the end of October, as robust income returns were complemented by the return of capital growth. This represents the highest level of annualised

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UK payrolls point to smooth ending of furlough scheme

UK payrolls point to smooth ending of furlough scheme

🕔10:12, 30.Nov 2021

Uncertainty surrounding the effect of the end of the UK furlough scheme on unemployment had been top of the Bank of England’s (BoE) list of economic concerns, but last week’s jobs data provided reasons to be optimistic on this front.

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Getting ahead of COP26 and what it means for investors

Getting ahead of COP26 and what it means for investors

🕔09:09, 5.Oct 2021

This November sees the UK play host to COP26 – the 26th Conference of Parties – where global leaders from almost 200 nations will come together and discuss climate objectives and, more importantly, revisit the commitments made as part of

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Climate change to bear upon banks’ financial performance

Climate change to bear upon banks’ financial performance

🕔15:06, 28.Sep 2021

A broad spectrum of central banks fear climate change could spark the next financial crisis. For this reason, regulators in Europe and the UK are already beginning to scrutinise banks’ resilience to climate change – looking into both the likely

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Q2 2021 bank earnings have beaten market expectations

Q2 2021 bank earnings have beaten market expectations

🕔16:16, 9.Sep 2021

Flash Update: Q2 2021 proved to be another good quarter for banks, beating market expectations once again. These beats were generally driven by better revenues in capital market divisions, especially equity trading and M&A, whilst loan loss provisions continued to

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Identifying attractive cities for UK office investing

Identifying attractive cities for UK office investing

🕔11:04, 6.Sep 2021

Property investors are examining the emerging “new normal” as input into capital deployment plans for the months ahead. If history is a guide, the UK will capture a lion’s share of planned investment because its defining features remain extremely attractive

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The arrival of long expected inflation.

The arrival of long expected inflation.

🕔13:02, 20.Aug 2021

In Credit: Inflation had long been expected to rise – and rise it has! Data released from the US and UK last week showed a jump in prices that exceeded (increased) expectations by some margin. Starting in the US, Consumer

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DC pensions: UK and NL experiences

DC pensions: UK and NL experiences

🕔08:00, 20.Aug 2021

In recent years, both the United Kingdom and the Netherlands have introduced significant changes to the way defined contribution (DC) pensions can be accessed. This article examines the changes and reflects on how each country’s DC savers have responded. We

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UK growth prospects rely on the bounce and the silver lining

UK growth prospects rely on the bounce and the silver lining

🕔09:02, 30.Jul 2021

As recovery from the Covid-19 recession appears to be gaining traction, prospects for rebounding economic growth and employment across UK regions and cities is now worth contemplating. Initially, the recovery should revive activity and jobs in the sectors that were

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Pre-Issuance Impact Report on the UK Government Green Financing Programme

Pre-Issuance Impact Report on the UK Government Green Financing Programme

🕔09:10, 8.Jul 2021

The UK government green financing programme ('the programme') is a green gilt (bond) issuance programme, alongside a world-first green retail savings bond via NS&I – the UK government’s retail savings arm. In addition to the core purpose of financing sustainable

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Fixed Income Monthly – June 2021

Fixed Income Monthly – June 2021

🕔12:42, 22.Jun 2021

The rapid roll-out of vaccinations across the US and the UK, with Europe catching up, pushed developed market PMIs once again to record highs in May. Business activity and new orders have accelerated across both manufacturing and services sectors, business

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The Next (Re-opening) Wave

The Next (Re-opening) Wave

🕔16:54, 15.Jun 2021

Asset Allocation Monthly – June 2021: Investor attention is turning to where economic growth will accelerate next as vaccine rollouts allow more and more economies to reopen. The current leaders, the US and UK, will soon pass the baton to

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Steady as she goes…

Steady as she goes…

🕔11:54, 14.Jun 2021

In credit: We saw some key economic data last week, in what felt like a seasonal lull for a number of European countries given the late May bank holiday and a week of school holidays. In the UK, sterling hit

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The crowds are returning!

The crowds are returning!

🕔12:23, 26.May 2021

We have remarked previously on the similarities between asset management and football (Investing? It’s a funny old game, July 2018), and as Covid-19 swept the globe during the last 12 months, our thoughts once again turned to these parallels. At

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UK Budget: Next steps, not complete vision

UK Budget: Next steps, not complete vision

🕔16:10, 8.Mar 2021

Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered only his second Budget, but the first after the full realisation of the impact of the pandemic on the UK economy. Amidst much speculation that he would tighten fiscal policy to address a large deficit, the Chancellor delivered a dynamic …

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Investors Bet on a Recovery

Investors Bet on a Recovery

🕔09:08, 18.Feb 2021

Markets continued to focus on hopes for a recovery rather than risks. The epidemic seems to be slowing in the United States and in United Kingdom. It appears to be under control in Europe.

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The Next Leg of Recovery

The Next Leg of Recovery

🕔11:25, 17.Feb 2021

2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.

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Less interest, in negative interest rates.

Less interest, in negative interest rates.

🕔07:43, 15.Feb 2021

Less interest, in negative interest rates.  Markets at a glance – 8 February 2021  It was a game of two halves for macro markets last week. Italy won in the end, with the UK coming last. For Italian bonds, spreads

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The EU-UK trade deal leaves open questions

The EU-UK trade deal leaves open questions

🕔10:48, 3.Feb 2021

The EU-UK trade deal leaves open questions But the exclusion of some areas brings opportunity for reform.  The wait is finally over. Four‑and‑a‑half years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has exited the European Union’s single market and customs union,

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Welcome back Ms Yellen!

Welcome back Ms Yellen!

🕔15:48, 26.Jan 2021

Recent news about the COVID-19 pandemic has been worrying, with more contagious strains of the virus spreading internationally, rising contamination rates, and healthcare systems on the verge of being overwhelmed, particularly in the UK and the US.

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UK Defined Benefit Pension Schemes Should Prepare for Negative Interest Rates

UK Defined Benefit Pension Schemes Should Prepare for Negative Interest Rates

🕔13:22, 11.Jan 2021

UK Defined Benefit Pension Schemes Should Prepare for Negative Interest Rates T. Rowe Price Insights on Fixed Income Negative interest rates are likely coming to the UK, but you would not know that judging from the markets. Although rates are

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A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets

A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets

🕔10:13, 11.Jan 2021

As widely expected, the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods. This means that EU-UK trade will be much less affected than if the UK had ‘crashed out’ without a deal, to be governed solely

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UK Investors Should Prepare for Negative Interest Rates

UK Investors Should Prepare for Negative Interest Rates

🕔13:35, 8.Jan 2021

The role of gilts in portfolios could be impacted. Negative interest rates are likely coming to the UK, but you would not know that judging from the markets. Although rates are widely expected to fall, implied policy rates show that the

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The Sanitary Situation Deteriorates

The Sanitary Situation Deteriorates

🕔16:05, 6.Jan 2021

Market Flash Falling temperatures have exacerbated the global sanitary situation. In Europe, Germany and the UK reinforced restrictions. Cases have also started rising again in Asia, a worry for Japan and South Korea which had managed to control the first

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Fiscal Forward Guidance

Fiscal Forward Guidance

🕔11:12, 1.Dec 2020

We explore this week the possible “exit strategy” from the ongoing extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus. Drawing on Olivier Blanchard’ recent research, we argue that the current EU fiscal surveillance framework may … Key points The current EU fiscal surveillance

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Policy hurdles, political dilemmas

Policy hurdles, political dilemmas

🕔12:54, 16.Oct 2020

After some U-turns from the US President and although discussions are continuing, no deal has been found on a new fiscal stimulus package. The Fed has been very explicit on the necessity of a timely and comprehensive additional budgetary push

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UK equities: in need of a vaccine!

UK equities: in need of a vaccine!

🕔14:35, 9.Oct 2020

UK equities in a ‘doom-loop’ We have seen something of a recovery in global markets since the pandemic struck, but this is very much the first pulse1. This was always going to be significant, given the magnitude and speed of

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Gravity wins in the end

Gravity wins in the end

🕔09:30, 29.Sep 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to

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The return of the Brexit saga

The return of the Brexit saga

🕔07:43, 23.Sep 2020

Like a long-running TV series, the latest season of the Brexit saga brings new drama and tension. Like all good drama, there are twists and turns in the plot, unclear motivations of key characters, complexity and new set-piece showdowns. Last

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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap

🕔11:24, 4.Aug 2020

Summary for the week ending on Friday, 30 July  Last week’s corporate earnings reports demonstrated that some major companies are benefiting from the pandemic’s impact on consumer patterns. This was on clear display Thursday evening, when Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple and

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Finding certainty in uncertain times

Finding certainty in uncertain times

🕔15:24, 17.Jul 2020

LCP pensions de-risking report: Buy-ins, buy-outs and longevity swaps 2019 was a remarkable year with buy-in and buy-out volumes in the UK hitting a record £43.8bn. This followed on the heels of 2018 which itself was an exceptional year reaching

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Bank dividend bans: Three market implications

Bank dividend bans: Three market implications

🕔15:03, 17.Jul 2020

Regulators in the UK and Europe have introduced a de-facto ban on bank dividends. The rationale for this is that banks provide a critical part of the monetary transmission mechanism. Regulators want to ensure that banks don’t compromise their ability

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Socially (Un) Acceptable

Socially (Un) Acceptable

🕔15:04, 14.Jul 2020

Global Matters Weekly  You tend not to hear too much from the city of Leicester here in the UK but it has played host to a number of historical events over the years and I’m proud to say I lived

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Brexit moving back onto the agenda

Brexit moving back onto the agenda

🕔15:09, 29.Jun 2020

Research Blast  It feels like a different era whereby every conversation around the UK commercial real estate market evolved around the topic of Brexit. Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe, the issue was hardly mentioned. But as transactions in

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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap

🕔07:53, 24.Jun 2020

Stocks had a poor start to last week, as concerns over the worsening of the pandemic in several states as well as a new outbreak in Beijing seemed to continue weighing on sentiment. The market then rebounded late Monday following

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