We explore this week the possible “exit strategy” from the ongoing extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus. Drawing on Olivier Blanchard’ recent research, we argue that the current EU fiscal surveillance framework may … Key points The current EU fiscal surveillance
After some U-turns from the US President and although discussions are continuing, no deal has been found on a new fiscal stimulus package. The Fed has been very explicit on the necessity of a timely and comprehensive additional budgetary push
UK equities in a ‘doom-loop’ We have seen something of a recovery in global markets since the pandemic struck, but this is very much the first pulse1. This was always going to be significant, given the magnitude and speed of
Research & Strategy Insights The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to
Like a long-running TV series, the latest season of the Brexit saga brings new drama and tension. Like all good drama, there are twists and turns in the plot, unclear motivations of key characters, complexity and new set-piece showdowns. Last
Summary for the week ending on Friday, 30 July Last week’s corporate earnings reports demonstrated that some major companies are benefiting from the pandemic’s impact on consumer patterns. This was on clear display Thursday evening, when Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple and
LCP pensions de-risking report: Buy-ins, buy-outs and longevity swaps 2019 was a remarkable year with buy-in and buy-out volumes in the UK hitting a record £43.8bn. This followed on the heels of 2018 which itself was an exceptional year reaching
Regulators in the UK and Europe have introduced a de-facto ban on bank dividends. The rationale for this is that banks provide a critical part of the monetary transmission mechanism. Regulators want to ensure that banks don’t compromise their ability
Global Matters Weekly You tend not to hear too much from the city of Leicester here in the UK but it has played host to a number of historical events over the years and I’m proud to say I lived
Research Blast It feels like a different era whereby every conversation around the UK commercial real estate market evolved around the topic of Brexit. Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe, the issue was hardly mentioned. But as transactions in
Stocks had a poor start to last week, as concerns over the worsening of the pandemic in several states as well as a new outbreak in Beijing seemed to continue weighing on sentiment. The market then rebounded late Monday following
Weekly Market Recap Stocks started last week strong, helped by news of encouraging early test results for a possible coronavirus vaccine. Moderna Therapeutics announced that its …
Weekly Market Recap Stocks recorded their worst day of last week on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 touching its lowest level in three weeks. Many attributed the sell-off to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in which he
The ECB has to deal with a nasty form of circularity: doubts on its capacity to break its self-imposed limits – further fueled by the recent decision of the German Constitutional Court – trigger bond offloading in some of …
Global Matters Weekly Financial losses come in many shapes and forms and investors rightly spend a considerable amount of time worrying about them but managing loss aversion poorly can make the longterm outcome even worse. It is important to pick
Insights – Global Macro Trends Every crisis has its human element, and how everyone responds to the problem at hand is usually what is most remembered. In 1939, on the verge of World War II, for example, the British government
We are living in extraordinary times. Alex Wright, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Special Situations Fund and Fidelity Special Values PLC discusses his new view on the world, through his old contrarian lens. He explains some of the changes he
Bank of England cuts rates at emergency meeting… Amid increasing challenges to the UK growth outlook and financial market turmoil on the back of the global COVID-19 outbreak, early on 11 March the Bank of England (BoE) announced an emergency
Investment Insights In brief The UK retirement industry is on course for meaningful changes in 2020. We observe the following forces as continuing to shape it: ■ Low bond yields and a lower-returning investment environment ■ The continued rise in
2020 is begonnen met de ondertekening van een gedeeltelijk handelsakkoord door de VS en China. Wat een verschil in een jaar tijd! De handelsoorlog die heel 2019 heeft gewoed, de aandelen uit de groeilanden naar beneden heeft getrokken en de
Chart of the Week Starting tomorrow, February 1, 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) will no longer be a member of the European Union (EU). More than 40 years after joining, majority of UK voters have decided that their countries' future
Asset Allocation update What a difference a year makes. After a bruising 2018, last year allowed investors to capture the second-best return on a blend of global equities and long-dated bonds in 30 years. For stocks it was also a year of
Key Messages 1. Lessons from the US-Iran conflict. Last week, Iran executed its announced retaliation, firing missiles against US military bases in Iraq. Oil prices jumped 5% and S&P 500 futures pointed to a 1.7% lower start to the day
Yesterday’s results imply Mr. Johnson will ‘get Brexit done’. However, his plan to get a trade agreement done by the end of 2020 is likely to hit some snags. Indeed, the hard work begins now, and even a bare-bones agreement
The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson secured a much bigger win in the election than polls had suggested. At the time of writing (1 seat outstanding), the Conservative looked on track to secure 365 seats and a majority of 80. This
The near-term impact of the election result has been positive for markets, but what are the longer-term implications for the UK as a destination of global capital? Fidelity Global Special Situations Fund Manager Jeremy Podger gives his view on the
Since the 2016 EU referendum, the UK equity market has felt like the land that time forgot. Greater clarity over Brexit and UK politics should not only spur an immediate stock market rally but also encourage a longer-lasting reappraisal of UK-listed companies.
Global investment views At the beginning of 2019, all eyes were focused on Europe, not only because of the risk of a Hard Brexit, but also because of the open crisis between the Italian government and the European Commission. The situation
Compass In this quarter’s publication, we focus on Europe – in particular to see if it is still an attractive place to invest despite the apparent headwinds. Europe can often appear a somewhat unwitting victim of events outside of its
The UK votes in a general election on 12 December. Polls point to a Conservative victory, but another hung parliament is also possible In any case, the risk of a disorderly Brexit is now very low With a Conservative majority,
The outcome of the 12 December UK General Election could allow the UK to finally settle the issue of leaving the European Union (EU). This could be by passing the current negotiated Tory deal, choosing another deal under a Labourled
The first release of UK GDP for the third quarter shows the economy avoided a technical recession. Real GDP growth was 0.3% quarter-on-quarter compared to -0.2% in the second quarter, although the latest figure did disappoint consensus expectations of 0.4%.
Matthew Townsend and Sara Feijao of Allen & Overy LLP explain how climate change has risen to be a key concern for large listed companies and the reporting regime with which companies need to comply in the UK. There is
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
December’s poll could lead to a quick exit—or a lengthy delay The UK’s general election on December 12 may finally bring some long‑awaited clarity over Brexit—or it may deliver an extended period of uncertainty and confusion. The poll will almost
It is our view that the potentially negative impacts of an unruly departure from the EU are likely to be felt more acutely by the economy itself rather than credit markets As we approach 31 October and the UK’s deadline
Last week’s surprise Brexit development was that a private meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar resulted in what was described as a “pathway to a deal” . After weeks of negative reporting, the
Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before
Following the twists and turns in Westminster of the past few weeks I expect many more market participants will simply place UK equities in the “too difficult” basket. Anecdotal stories of overseas investors selling their last UK stocks could start
After the political crisis in Italy was almost resolved this week (supporters of the Five Star movement still have to agree to the new coalition), the British government could come under pressure next week. The British Parliament will return from
The leadership change in UK government has brought a change of Brexit direction. While the pound has adjusted to reflect an increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, volatility markets still discount a further extension of the deadline as their central
Monitor Brexit with the ‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Index’ Brexit and OpinioPro Brexit Monitor. Internet search for ‘brexit’ made an incredible peak in 2016 and returned in the limelight around the deadline in 2019. Context level: The peak of 260.000 would
Week Ahead As the week draws to a close, events in the United Kingdom have turned upside down. At the end of last week, negotiations between the Conservatives (Tories) and the Labor Party over an EU exit procedure broke apart.
Investment talks Developments and scenarios ahead: The Brexit deal’s defeat in Parliament was expected, but the size of the loss was not – the result of 432 votes against versus 202 for was quite a surprise. In light of the
Regional view – United Kingdom "…we fully expect another volatile year. However, it is also worth pondering what could actually go right."
Week Ahead The vote in the British Parliament on the divorce package with the EU, originally scheduled for December 11, will take place on Tuesday next week. The starting position is clear. Nobody expects the package to get a majority,
Regional view – United Kingdom "we have every reason to believe that UK assets will not start to meaningfully underperform again"
Where we stand and possible scenarios ahead After the EU approval of Brexit deal, we are going to pass through some tough times until the UK parliamentary vote on Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December. UK Parliamentary ratification of the deal
Gauging Investor Sentiment on the Brexit Impact State Street commissioned PollRight* to conduct a survey of professional investors on their sentiment apropos Brexit. Respondents comprised institutional and alternative investors such as hedge funds, real estate and private equity**. In total,
On 11 December, the UK House of Commons will vote on the proposed Withdrawal Agreement for the UK’s exit from the European Union, which was recently agreed by the UK government and the European Union. In this note, we provide our views on
