Key Messages 1. Lessons from the US-Iran conflict. Last week, Iran executed its announced retaliation, firing missiles against US military bases in Iraq. Oil prices jumped 5% and S&P 500 futures pointed to a 1.7% lower start to the day
Yesterday’s results imply Mr. Johnson will ‘get Brexit done’. However, his plan to get a trade agreement done by the end of 2020 is likely to hit some snags. Indeed, the hard work begins now, and even a bare-bones agreement
The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson secured a much bigger win in the election than polls had suggested. At the time of writing (1 seat outstanding), the Conservative looked on track to secure 365 seats and a majority of 80. This
The near-term impact of the election result has been positive for markets, but what are the longer-term implications for the UK as a destination of global capital? Fidelity Global Special Situations Fund Manager Jeremy Podger gives his view on the
Since the 2016 EU referendum, the UK equity market has felt like the land that time forgot. Greater clarity over Brexit and UK politics should not only spur an immediate stock market rally but also encourage a longer-lasting reappraisal of UK-listed companies.
Global investment views At the beginning of 2019, all eyes were focused on Europe, not only because of the risk of a Hard Brexit, but also because of the open crisis between the Italian government and the European Commission. The situation
Compass In this quarter’s publication, we focus on Europe – in particular to see if it is still an attractive place to invest despite the apparent headwinds. Europe can often appear a somewhat unwitting victim of events outside of its
The UK votes in a general election on 12 December. Polls point to a Conservative victory, but another hung parliament is also possible In any case, the risk of a disorderly Brexit is now very low With a Conservative majority,
The outcome of the 12 December UK General Election could allow the UK to finally settle the issue of leaving the European Union (EU). This could be by passing the current negotiated Tory deal, choosing another deal under a Labourled
The first release of UK GDP for the third quarter shows the economy avoided a technical recession. Real GDP growth was 0.3% quarter-on-quarter compared to -0.2% in the second quarter, although the latest figure did disappoint consensus expectations of 0.4%.
Matthew Townsend and Sara Feijao of Allen & Overy LLP explain how climate change has risen to be a key concern for large listed companies and the reporting regime with which companies need to comply in the UK. There is
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
December’s poll could lead to a quick exit—or a lengthy delay The UK’s general election on December 12 may finally bring some long‑awaited clarity over Brexit—or it may deliver an extended period of uncertainty and confusion. The poll will almost
It is our view that the potentially negative impacts of an unruly departure from the EU are likely to be felt more acutely by the economy itself rather than credit markets As we approach 31 October and the UK’s deadline
Last week’s surprise Brexit development was that a private meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar resulted in what was described as a “pathway to a deal” . After weeks of negative reporting, the
Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before
Following the twists and turns in Westminster of the past few weeks I expect many more market participants will simply place UK equities in the “too difficult” basket. Anecdotal stories of overseas investors selling their last UK stocks could start
After the political crisis in Italy was almost resolved this week (supporters of the Five Star movement still have to agree to the new coalition), the British government could come under pressure next week. The British Parliament will return from
The leadership change in UK government has brought a change of Brexit direction. While the pound has adjusted to reflect an increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, volatility markets still discount a further extension of the deadline as their central
Monitor Brexit with the ‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Index’ Brexit and OpinioPro Brexit Monitor. Internet search for ‘brexit’ made an incredible peak in 2016 and returned in the limelight around the deadline in 2019. Context level: The peak of 260.000 would
Week Ahead As the week draws to a close, events in the United Kingdom have turned upside down. At the end of last week, negotiations between the Conservatives (Tories) and the Labor Party over an EU exit procedure broke apart.
Investment talks Developments and scenarios ahead: The Brexit deal’s defeat in Parliament was expected, but the size of the loss was not – the result of 432 votes against versus 202 for was quite a surprise. In light of the
Regional view – United Kingdom "…we fully expect another volatile year. However, it is also worth pondering what could actually go right."
Week Ahead The vote in the British Parliament on the divorce package with the EU, originally scheduled for December 11, will take place on Tuesday next week. The starting position is clear. Nobody expects the package to get a majority,
Regional view – United Kingdom "we have every reason to believe that UK assets will not start to meaningfully underperform again"
"We more than ever need a targeted investment agenda that stimulates ‘real’ economic growth," @hanswstegeman argues, "instead of the current financial agenda, which above all sustains elevated asset prices."
Discover our Q1 2020 Economic Outlook on our website now.
Global 5G deployment could trigger the emergence of a whole range of new services, say UBP’s experts. Read this piece to find out why and how.
