The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that we could not see in the data
Competing dynamics have kept U.S. inflation largely stable, but the balance may be shifting After the turbulence of the 1970s and early 1980s, U.S. inflation entered a remarkably stable period that has persisted for the past three decades. As Figure
Week Ahead Trade agreement before December 15? The most important event for the global markets next week will be the decision on further US tariffs on Chinese imports from December 15. This will affect annual imports of about USD 150bn;
Weekly commentary • We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. • We see growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next 6
Market flash Hong Kong’s pro- democracy party won 85% of the seats in the local elections, a massive increase on the 25% seen in 2015. A few days later, Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Rights and Democracy Act into
Cross Asset Investment Strategy Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained
A moderation of NIPA corporate profits may well imply lower GDP growth in 2020. However, we do not expect a recession in the next twelve months. The Fed should stay neutral into 2020; we expect its communication to remain slightly
In brief: Investors are increasingly frustrated after years of non-US equity underperformance While US fundamentals appear to be superior, a closer look suggests the gap may be narrower than it seems With financial alchemy potentially reaching its limits, true fundamentals
The US leveraged loan market has proven to be, until recently, resilient, despite facing a challenging environment over the past few years. Outflows from the retail component of the US leveraged loan market have been incessant for the past year,
The modern firm is one of society’s most powerful inventions, with more than 50% of economic transactions taking place internally within firms rather than through market mechanisms. The decisions made by firms are major drivers of value creation and destruction
The coming months will bring with them a change in context. In addition to the five major sources of uncertainty that have rocked the market since the beginning of the year, there is now a new feature in the landscape:
October 2019 US and ECB communications revealed divided opinions on the prospect for more aggressive stimulus looking ahead despite stress in US money markets. As a result, investors may face a ‘gap’ between limited monetary policy support and emerging fiscal
SDGs: Challenge and opportunity by Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele With markets focused on the back-and-forth in US-China trade negotiations it's easy to forget that, behind the headlines, there are other longer-term challenges that we face as a society.
US and China trade-related uncertainties and the associated financial risks are unlikely to be resolved soon. A company's ability to weather the tariff-related headwinds of rising costs, compressing margins and the potential loss of market share depends on its ability
Week Ahead Settlement of trade disputes within reach? The stock and bond markets seem to be increasingly optimistic that one day the specter of trade conflicts will come to an end. China and the United States have agreed in recent
The currency has remained resilient despite the slowing U.S. economy Interest rate cuts are usually associated with currency depreciation, but this is not always the case with the U.S. dollar. A key factor in determining the value of the dollar
Who controls our money? The developed world depends on money in one form or another. We pay bills, put food on the table, and add to the quality of our life with it. But how well does the average person
US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches. Given the impact of the 2018 tax cuts and the upcoming 2020 US Presidential election
US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches. Given the impact of the 2018 tax cuts and the upcoming 2020 US Presidential election
Join CFA Sociey VBA Netherlands and experts from CME Group for an in-depth workshop on: The role of energy and metals in an investment portfolio The outlook on risk and return of commodity markets can form the basis of portfolio construction.
IN THIS PAPER: The CMBX.6 has become such a popular short by speculators placing bets on mall closings that it has been profiled in the media as the next “big short.” It’s true that as many as a third of
Risk is a thorny word. In its simplest form, it means exposure to danger, but in an organizational or business context, it takes on a much more complex definition.
Global markets went on a rollercoaster ride in the past two weeks amid shifting developments in the U.S.-China trade dispute. As negotiators headed into the 13th round of trade talks in Washington on October 10 and 11, stocks sold off
A perceived de-escalation in U.S.-China tensions and Brexit has driven up risk assets, yet we see geopolitical risks staying at elevated levels. Signs that weakness caused by the protectionist push is spreading beyond manufacturing have cast a shadow on the
For decades, dividends have largely been associated with companies from more mature areas of the market such as utilities or telecommunications. Meanwhile, technology has long remained an afterthought. But what happens when tech grows up? Areas of the sector are
Our conference #UBPInvestmentOutlook had a full house in London last week! Our experts shared their 2020 outlook for the global economy and more specifically for the UK. Thank you all for coming!
Zal zijn laatste woorden aan mij nooit vergeten. Over woorden gesproken: toen ik Volcker de eerste keer ontmoette, was zijn eerste vraag:"Hoe is het met Andre Szász?" Ik had 15 minuten met hem. Het werd 1,5 uur! Er was een klik. RIP
De Asset Allocatie Awards komen er weer aan! Nominaties komen deze week, winnaars op 4 februari 2020... Hier een sfeer inpressie van vorig jaar -> https://t.co/c36HWpyGVx
