Mid-Year Outlook 2021 The view of investors on the outlook for US growth and inflation has varied significantly over the course of the year. Following the positive vaccine trial results last November, and particularly with the Democratic Senate victories in
These past few weeks have seen an interesting shift in investor fears, from inflation to growth, and back again – with a dose of Delta variant fear added to the mix. Indeed, growth is likely to have already peaked in
In Credit: Inflation had long been expected to rise – and rise it has! Data released from the US and UK last week showed a jump in prices that exceeded (increased) expectations by some margin. Starting in the US, Consumer
Can there be such a thing as too much money? There is certainly a huge amount of money sloshing through the US financial system, which is straining the shortterm funding market and threatening to push short-dated Treasury yields below zero.
Weekly investment update: Another month, another US inflation report beating market expectations. Headline year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation has gone from 1.1% last November to 4.9% in May. Even though economists knew that base effects meant the rate of
This July, we find ourselves looking back on a half a year of upside surprises. As the year started, we expected an better run than we had in 2020, which was a low standard to surpass. Rapid progress distributing vaccines
President Joe Biden’s first months in the White House fully reflect his administration’s commitment to pursuing a transition to a low carbon economy. Biden has rejoined the Paris Agreement and recently announced a highly ambitious target to reduce emissions by
Below is a brief recap of the views of Tim Ng and Tom Hollenberg, fixed income portfolio managers and members of Capital’s interest rates team, regarding the Fed’s announcement on 16th June. Fed officials projected two interest rate increases by
Fundamentals have continued to recover alongside vaccination efforts and reduced Covid restrictions, as well as fiscal and monetary accommodation driving increased general economic activity. We expect these factors …
We have observed that additions and deletions to the S&P 500 Index follow a dependable pattern: additions underperform and deletions overperform overthe subsequent12-month period. The December 2020 rebalance out of AIV and into TSLA lived up to this pattern rather
Global Asset Allocation Views: High frequency data suggest that economic activity is surging, aggregate household balance sheets are in good health, and economic output in developed markets is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 3Q21. The question, perhaps, might be
The return of housing as an economic driver gives the Fed options. Home prices in the U.S. are booming and may continue to do so for a while yet. This will likely give the post‑coronavirus economic recovery a very different complexion
– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis
The rapid roll-out of vaccinations across the US and the UK, with Europe catching up, pushed developed market PMIs once again to record highs in May. Business activity and new orders have accelerated across both manufacturing and services sectors, business
It’s been great to see the economy reopen, releasing a tremendous surge of energy. But anxieties remain: Will the economy overheat? Are we on a course toward runaway inflation? Will the workforce return to its former size? While these are
When it comes to America’s biggest technology companies, it seems like regulatory risk has never been higher. Most large technology platforms are facing pressure from US and European authorities, while lawmakers on Capitol Hill seem more inclined to doing something
As emerging markets matured over the last couple decades, many countries began issuing debt, denominated in their respective local currency, rather than US dollars. This has created a valuable sub-asset class worth more than 3 trillion US dollars, alongside US
Asset Allocation Monthly – June 2021: Investor attention is turning to where economic growth will accelerate next as vaccine rollouts allow more and more economies to reopen. The current leaders, the US and UK, will soon pass the baton to
Having hit a record high in late April, global equities peaked again in May after a choppy spell. Inflation appears to worry investors less now than it did at the start of the year. The latest indicators are beginning to
We believe the forces driving US commercial real estate investment performance are strengthening and supporting expectations for a solid if not impressive recovery from the Covid-19 recession. First quarter National Council of Real Estate Fiduciaries (NCREIF) results were notable with
News surrounding the pandemic has steadily improved this month, with cases dropping sharply across the US and Europe, and retreating in India. As such, confidence in reopening timetables is increasing, with global growth expectations growing in tandem. More and more
Fund flows to date have massively favoured US equities, but European equities now have considerable scope to catch up as the economic recovery broadens and investors reassess their valuations relative to their more expensive US counterparts. Peter Abbott, European equities portfolio
As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as
Investors can choose between two different types of instruments when investing in the corporate high-yield market: traditional high-yield bonds and high-yield CDS indices. In this white paper, we shall look at the performances of the global high-yield bond market since
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected Florida agriculture — primarily vegetable growers who were major sellers to the food service industry. The pandemic caused many of the producers that were selling to food service companies to market their crops to grocery
In Credit: The key theme this year for markets has been the trend higher in inflation expectations and the question of whether the US economy is overheating. This has prompted a rise in government bond yields, with German and UK
US core consumer prices jumped by 0.9% on the month in April. When combined with the big fall in prices 12 months ago dropping out of the annual calculation, year-on-year core consumer price index (CPI) inflation was pushed up to
The Fed may announce first asset tapering steps this summer. Should the health of the U.S. economy continue to improve at its current pace in the coming months, investors will have to prepare for a gradual normalization in Federal Reserve
Macro Insight: In late March, President Biden announced details of a further package – the $2.3tn American Jobs Plan. This set out major spending plans and tax changes for the US economy over the next 15 years (Figure 1).
In a week marked by volatility in broad risk markets related to concerns around inflation, the U.S. loan market maintained a steady pace, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Index (the “Index”) posted an advance of 0.09% for the seven-day period ended
US inflation surprised to the upside in April with the core consumer price index rising 0.9% in April and headline CPI up 0.8%1. This materially changes the maths on inflation. Even if the monthly trend in inflation decelerates to 0.15%,
Getting the balance correct between short-term relief checks and long-term infrastructure spending is critical Last summer, at the height of the Covid-19 crisis, I bought and built a swing set for my grandchildren. Construction was reasonably straightforward and – remarkably
US inflation looks set to rise significantly heading into the summer. Contrary to the view that this will be a temporary increase, a number of forces could combine to create greater structural pressure pushing prices higher for longer. Markets are
The recent rise in US yields offers opportunities for the EURO-based investor. But between economic recovery, the FED policy, the rise of inflation, and the fiscal stimulus, how to make the right choice for your fixed income portfolio ? Come
Amid a US economic boom, how high can rates go? The possibility of an economic boom this year has stoked worries about higher inflation and prompted a sharp selloff in US Treasuries. We spoke with fixed income portfolio manager Pramod
In Credit: The upward trend of rising inflation expectations continues and is now at 2.5% at the 10-year point of the curve and 2.8% for two years. The US non-farm payroll / employment sector report released last Friday revealed that
The Weekly Brief: The rise in US economic growth and inflation has been well flagged by markets and economists but uncertainty remains as to the persistence of these pickups. A successful vaccine rollout is enabling a reopening of the economy
Inflation has been quiescent in developed economies in recent years. Today, the possibility that we may be on the brink of a secular shift away from the low-flation regime is a topic of intense debate among investors. Nowhere is this
Expect tax hikes to fund infrastructure upgrades and innovation. President Joe Biden’s first address to Congress conveyed, in no uncertain terms, that his first 100 days are a precursor for what’s next on his agenda: a significant, paradigm-shifting investment in America’s
Evidence continues to mount that a combination of vaccinations and stimulus are creating some of the strongest economic growth data in decades. Even so, the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy until unemployment falls further and inflation materializes.
Weekly investment update: The risk of the US economy overheating was highlighted months ago, but it was difficult to assess whether the market actually believed it was possible. Recent comments by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have put the topic
Amerikaans president Joe Biden is 100 dagen aan de macht. Hij maakt flink vaart bij het aanpakken van de pandemie. Maar hoe ziet zijn beleid er na corona uit? Om 8:00 uur lokale tijd nam Verenigde Staten-correspondent Michiel Vos in
Event-Driven strategies saw exciting developments in recent quarters, in a context where global M&A volumes saw the strongest start to the year ever. Global M&A volumes, close to USD 1.5 trillion year-to-date, were fueled by a flurry of U.S. acquisitions
The Weekly Brief: Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines, following President Biden’s recent pledge to cut US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in half by 2030. In total, 58 countries, representing 54% of global GHG emissions, have now communicated a
As the U.S. continues its COVID-19 vaccination program, the Return to Normal Index measures human activity data relative to prepandemic levels. The index is constructed by our data scientists and fundamental analysts and tracks activities in the U.S. including travel,
Opportunities presented by public policy in the Biden era. Within T. Rowe Price, our Public Policy Research team supports our analysts and portfolio managers through all stages of the investment process. We work closely with our environmental, social, and governance (ESG) team to
The US market hit all-time highs during the first quarter and a number of non – US markets joined the march upwards, including the Canadian and European equity markets. Those non-US markets have tended to have a healthy tilt toward
In Credit: Government bond yields were little moved last week. The benchmark US 10-year note ended the week with a yield of 1.58%, barely moved from a week earlier. Inflation expectations, which have risen materially in the last year and
In Credit Inflation arrived in the US last week. There was also a bumper crop of strong economic data releases. This had been largely expected and remarkably yields fell to the lowest level in a month with the US 10-year
Aggressive stimulus and labor market tightening mean higher inflation risk. Asset and commodity prices have been moving in line with the view that supply constraints and a weaker U.S. dollar are putting incipient pressure on underlying inflation trends. Contrary to
