What do Netflix, Peloton Interactive, Coinbase, and Palantir Technologies have in common? I admit it isn’t a particularly challenging question. As anyone who has been following the U.S. stock market in the last 10 months knows all too well, they
Many investors see yield curve inversions—when short-term bond yields exceed longterm yields—as foreboding. Do they signal a stock market downturn? Data from the US and other major economies show yield curve inversions have not historically predicted …
Historically, emerging market (EM) local currency debt has tended to weaken with rising US interest rates, but our research shows that much of this has generally occurred before Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes have taken place. As the Fed
US CRE MARKET INSIGHTS June 2022: First quarter US CRE investment performance reported by NCREIF’s National Property Index (NPI) offers a continuation of the extraordinary total returns produced during 2021. Total return for the year ending March 2022 reached a
With the US Federal Reserve in a full-on fight against inflation, concerns are rising that tighter monetary policy could tip the US economy into a recession. A look at longer-term financial cycles …
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 14–15, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year
Earnings are priced in to keep rising while inflation is priced in to fall. It rarely works out that way. US equities are down about 10% so far this year, but until the last couple of days, this was driven
In this article, we try to address the following questions: (1) how has the US equity market evolved over the past few years in terms of active, passive, and retail investors?; (2) how has the factor-investing landscape changed (including ESG
It feels as though US policy makers have spent the entire post-global financial crisis period trying to generate inflation. Now that it’s here, it seems like the wrong kind of inflation. How do you see inflation playing out in the
Households are about to experience the biggest hit to disposable income in a long time. Rising inflation, continued supply chain constraints and now the Russia-Ukraine war have piled on seemingly all at once. The swelling piggybanks from stashing away cash
Despite recent increases in interest rates, the U.S. Treasury yield curve remains largely flat and has even inverted in some parts after maturities of two or three years. But the short end of the curve remains quite …
Equity Perspectives: Janus Henderson provides an active approach to equity investing. The equities platform is shaped by the belief that fundamental research is the foundation for delivering long-term, risk-adjusted returns to help clients achieve their financial goals. Independent thought and
Market assessment: After an initial negative reaction to the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, US equities markets are now above their pre-war levels. US equity volatility has proven much lower compared to Europe, which is more exposed to the crisis and to the
Evaluating the components of deep value returns in Europe and Japan
Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the
From acquiring medical supplies to ensuring energy security, the coronavirus pandemic and war in Ukraine seem to have taught great economies a thing or two about self-sufficiency. Throughout these events, the US has demonstrated policy and economic flexibilities, while many
After the substantial fiscal and monetary policy measures implemented in the wake of the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, a slowdown in global growth comes as no surprise to anyone. Most of the stimulus in the form of direct payments
A key channel of contagion to fixed income markets outside of Russia/Ukraine is likely to be through commodity prices. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. The US has
After months of heightened tensions between the Ukraine and Russia, the situation reached a turning point on February 22. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognising the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk, paving the way for the invasion of
Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: The U.S. loan market continued to recover ground lost in February, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) returned 0.54% for the seven-day period ended March 31. The Index saw
At the end of 2021, US commercial property investors were contemplating prospects for an easing Covid -19 threat in the year ahead along with still-strong economic growth accompanied by tightening interest rates to quell inflation. As often happens, it’s not
U.S. Treasury yields rose last week and fixed income returns were broadly negative amid continued geopolitical, economic and policy uncertainty. Spread assets remained weaker. U.S. Treasury yields continued to see heightened volatility, with 10-year yields ending the week 26 basis
Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: Following a period of weakness related to geopolitical tension and largely negative broad market sentiment, the U.S. loan market performed in strong fashion this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index
Through the melee of mounting inflation, flaring geopolitical risks and subsequently volatile capital markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve met market expectations and increased the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) while also validating market assumptions for how
US CRE Market Insights – March 2022: Recently released fourth quarter and annual 2021 US CRE investment performance data show a continuing pattern of feast or famine across the four major sectors. Feasting in the industrial sector has produced a
Starting in 2003, Michael Dooley published a series of papers proposing the idea of a Bretton Woods revival as the plausible rationale for China’s relatively extreme foreign currency reserve accumulation policy.
The tragedy unfolding in the Ukraine has been the main focus for financial markets this week. The impact on global economic growth remains to be seen, but we believe that the US Federal Reserve will start tightening monetary policy by
U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, with inflation breakevens rising to reflect the risk of higher commodity prices due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Spread sectors were mixed, but mostly rallied after initial knee-jerk moves lower.
January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth
I'm often asked to give my perspective on the current environment. Before I do, I'd like to take a step back. During most of my career, you could take credit or interest rate risk and do relatively well. This last
Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around
January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth
Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around
Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since
Investors remain nervous about inflation and hawkish central banks, but it’s been the tensions over Ukraine that have unsettled them most over the past week. This has been reflected in oil hitting new highs and another leg down for global
I'm often asked to give my perspective on the current environment. Before I do, I'd like to take a step back. During most of my career, you could take credit or interest rate risk and do relatively well. This last
US inflation in January surprised once again to the upside, with the headline and core figures jumping 7.5% and 6% year-over-year, respectively. However, we note that, although these prints are the largest since 1982 and, thus, do worry market participants,
Against the spectre of soaring energy prices, labour shortages and supply chain constraints, a question that has arisen in the US has landed firmly on European shores: will inflation continue to rise and how persistent will it be? The prevailing
January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth
Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around
Disappointing US dollar bond returns in EM local currency debt has led to a decline in flows into the asset class over the past decade. In this paper, we discuss the key reasons to invest in EM local currency debt, some of the factors behind the recent weakness in the asset class returns and prospects for the asset class going forward.
The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what
Gold has done amazingly well, considering the rise in US treasury yields. Geopolitical tensions and fears of inflation may be helping. But we suspect that without US recession it has further …
In a bubble, no one wants to hear the bear case. It is the worst kind of party-pooping. For bubbles, especially superbubbles where we are now, are often the most exhilarating financial experiences of a lifetime. I participated in a
Inflation has returned decisively onto the global economic scene. In the United States, headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) reached close to 7% in November, the highest in nearly 40 years; in the euro area it reached close to 5%, the
Playing second fiddle. That’s how the 2022 economic forecasts feel when compared to 2021. For ’22, we see real growth running about 4%, or two times trend. That’s typically great performance, but when you’re coming off a phenomenal growth year
I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at
US CRE Market Insights: Commercial real estate (CRE) investment performance for US properties soared in the third quarter as unlevered total return reported by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) registered 12.1% for the four quarters ending
Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.
Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will
