Investment Insights Is the U.S. dollar entering a new multiyear bear cycle, or is it just experiencing an episode of weakness in an already decade-long bull run? It’s a question at the top of investors’ minds given the dollar’s steady
Multi-asset | November 2020 Coronavirus cases are rising at an alarming rate in the US and Europe, so why are equities reaching new highs? With the Covid-19 case count rising rapidly across the United States and Europe, the immediate economic
Market Flash Markets continued to focus on waning epidemic and political risk. Astra Zeneca unveiled a Covid vaccine that looks promising and simple to use. Governments are gearing up to start vaccination campaigns in the next few weeks. In the
Investment Outlook 2021 According to our scenario, all countries should see renewed growth in 2021. Economies have seen a gradual upturn since summer 2020, although the resurgence of Covid-19 cases and new local restrictions are hampering the recovery at the
Global Asset Allocation: The View from EMEA Blue Ripple? A Biden presidency, with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, is a possible outcome of the US elections. Most polls heading into the election were predicting the possibility of a ‘Blue
Introduction: Binary outcomes In our recent CIO Autumn Outlook, we highlighted the binary nature of the key event risks heading into the final quarter, all of which still have the scope to move markets significantly. These are the US presidential
Fixed Income Quarterly Report – Q4 2020 A second wave of coronavirus infections is sweeping the globe, corporate defaults are on the rise and recovery rates are well below their historical average. Meanwhile, the outcome of one of the most
Asset Allocation Monthly Three key issues have dominated the macroeconomic outlook in recent weeks: The second wave of the virus, the possibility of a positive announcement on the vaccine front, and the outcome of the US elections. Markets have been
President-elect Biden to face a divided Congress Developments continue since the US Presidential Elections last Tuesday, but over the weekend a wide range of news agencies have declared Joe Biden to be the winner in Pennsylvania, a state carrying 20
Global Investing Of course, the impact of next week’s elections in the US goes well beyond the economic and financial realm, but from our narrow angle, we will follow the results across two dimensions. One is volatility: whether a winner
Of course, the impact of next week’s elections in the US goes well beyond the economic and financial realm, but from our narrow angle, we will follow the results across two dimensions. One is volatility: whether a winner emerges quickly
Above-average equity volatility continued in October, despite a decline from last month’s level for the S&P 500 and most of our reported indices. The short-term trend was less encouraging: much of October’s volatility occurred during a choppy final week as
Weekly Investment Commentary Stocks snapped a three-week winning streak last week, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 0.5%. The U.S. elections continued to dominate the headlines, with polls showing an increasing likelihood of a Biden victory and Democratic sweep of
Investment Insights – US elections: an insider’s view To briefly re-cap how the US presidential election works: it is decided not by the popular vote but by the electoral college vote. The successful candidate in each state takes all the
Weekly Investment Commentary Stocks snapped a three-week winning streak last week, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 0.5%. The U.S. elections continued to dominate the headlines, with polls showing an increasing likelihood of a Biden victory and Democratic sweep of
Strong S&P 500 EPS Results for the Third Quarter, Probably the Best of the Year CIO | View – Americas CIO View Powerful direct fiscal assistance to small businesses and households, forbearance programs, business reopening's and warmer weather all helped
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary U.S. Treasury rates closed higher last week, led by longer maturities. A constructive market tone lifted rates and supported risk assets. Prospects for additional fiscal stimulus prior to the U.S. election dimmed, but rates rose nonetheless
Research & Strategy Insights Considering the rise in government debt in key developed markets As cases of coronavirus appear to be on a rising trend again in the US and have picked up sharply across Europe, negative risks to the
Weekly Economic Commentary Eleven years ago, I had the pleasure of witnessing my wife’s naturalization ceremony. The presiding judge opened with a memorable comment: “Swearing in new citizens is the only time everyone leaves the courtroom happy.” Everyone present nodded.
Market Flash Markets are in wait-and-see mode. Investors are waiting to see a new stimulus plan in the US, the presidential election results, progress in finalising Brexit and positive developments in the search for a coronavirus vaccine. They are also
Summary for the week ending on Friday, 16 October Following the lack of progress in stimulus negotiations over the previous weekend, the prospects of passing a relief package before the election seemed to dim further last week. On Tuesday, Republican
Credit Outlook Downgrades and defaults have had a major impact on the asset class Record volumes of credit downgrades and a sharp spike in defaults have reconfigured the US high yield bond market in the wake of the coronavirus. This
#42 In October, there is no lack of webinars. This week our event calendar includes 11 webinars! For example, on Tuesday 20 October, KraneShares hosts a Virtual Conference called “The Next Chapter for China” and on Thursday 22 October, T.
Weekly commentary The potential outcomes of the November U.S. election could have starkly different policy ramifications, as we argued last week. What will this mean for equity markets? We believe simplistic narratives about the overall market direction are best avoided
An EDHEC-Risk Institute Working Paper This paper employs a robust portfolio sorting procedure to factor size characteristics into returns. The US size anomaly boils then down to a pure seasonal effect, fully supporting the “tax-loss-selling” hypothesis. We build a long-short
In the final quarter of this year, investors are likely to learn the answers to three pivotal questions for markets. First, we are likely to hear the results of vaccine trials. Second, we will learn the results of the US
After some U-turns from the US President and although discussions are continuing, no deal has been found on a new fiscal stimulus package. The Fed has been very explicit on the necessity of a timely and comprehensive additional budgetary push
Beste Caspar, Als uitwisselingsstudent in New York werd ik in 2008 door een journalist gevraagd wat ik als buitenstaander dacht over de presidentsstrijd tussen McCain en Obama. Naast het uitspreken van …
Webinar – New world, new challenges: Rethinking the investment landscape 2020 has been a year like no other. A global health crisis, as yet without an end in sight, that has transformed the world and is accelerating change across societies.
U.S. Treasury yields rose across the yield curve last week, led by longer maturities. Investors saw renewed potential for a fiscal stimulus package, as well as the possibility of a Democratic sweep of the White House and Senate. Risk assets
U.S. Economic & Interest Rate Outlook The pandemic has made indoor activities and gatherings risky. During the summer, outdoor adventures and backyard socializing were effective workarounds. But as autumn takes hold, the cooling air will gradually limit those options. This
Wall Street kept a close eye on on-again, off-again negotiations over a new coronavirus relief package. Shares rose Monday after reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had spoken by phone and were prepared to exchange
The political priorities and policies of the government of the world’s largest economy and superpower evidently matters for international investors. The checks and balances in the US Constitution limit the room for radical changes in policy direction and typically market
Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris met yesterday in their one and only Vice Presidential debate in Salt Lake City. This was the second most important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and early indications on the morning
Market Flash Joe Biden has continued to widen his poll lead since the first TV debate and the news that Donald Trump had gone down with Covid. Online sites have him at 65% vs. a mere 35% for Trump. Biden
Gold’s intrinsic value has been recognised for millennia but its role on the global stage changed fundamentally following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In 1971, US President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold. By 1973, advanced countries
Manager Point of View The US equity market is sometimes referred to as the most efficient and over-researched market in the world. It’s an argument that some have linked to the reduced preference for active investing, judging the S&P 500
Weekly Economic Commentary IN THIS ISSUE: Curing What Ails U.S. Healthcare Child Care Is A Global Economic Issue When It Comes To The U.S. National Debt, History Will Not Repeat No one can avoid the doctor’s office forever. Whether for
Webinar – Trump and the positive test – what next in the race for the White House? The news that US President Donald Trump has tested positive for the Coronavirus just weeks before the Presidential elections, has thrown the Presidential
The Payroll data for September confirmed that the recovery of the US labour market is stalling. The fact that employment failed to grow outside the hospitality sector suggests the difficulties go well beyond the direct impact of Covid-fighting restrictions. Labour
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report IN BRIEF From a portfolio perspective, exposure to tech winners in U.S. equities is not a free lunch. The same growth stories that prompted outsize U.S. equity returns in recent years and a faster recovery
Multi-Asset Solutions EMEA Summary for the week ending on Friday, 2 October The political environment seemed to play a large role in driving sentiment last week. Investors kept a close eye on conflicting signals on stimulus negotiations between Treasury Secretary
Spotlight In early-September, the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a shift in the inflation containment policy regime that had been in place since the 1970s. Recall how, facing rapidly rising and eventually double-digit inflation, then Fed Chair Paul
This spring, investors experienced one of the most volatile periods in modern market history. The speed with which financial markets sold off in March, and then rallied following unprecedented steps by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US Treasury,
Investment Insights The Capital Group US Corporate Bond strategy showed tremendous resilience through the worst of the volatility experienced towards the end of the 2020 first quarter. In this paper, we take a closer look at this strategy and how
Multi-Asset Solutions EMEA Summary for the week ending on Friday, 25 September Last week began on a down note, with the renewed rise in coronavirus cases in Europe and several other concerns weighing on sentiment. Prospects for Democrats and Republicans
Research & Strategy Insights The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to
Aerial View Over the past 20 years, academics, policymakers and market participants have begun to debate the future of the US dollar (USD) as the world’s premier reserve currency, or the currency in which global …
Global Macro Monthly US President Donald Trump has already laid claim to the fastest economic recovery in US history. In terms of quarterly growth rates, this will surely be the case. Following the steepest contraction on record, data in Q2
Uncommon truths I have long expected Joe Biden to be elected as the next president of the US. I believe the stock market implications are less than many fear but not all sectors will be impacted in the same way.
