Cross Asset Investment Strategy June
Cio views Increased risk requires a cautious attitude This month’s topic: the 2020 us presidential election: another close race?
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Week Ahead | Major Markets | Eurozone
The outcome of the FOMC's upcoming meeting is uncertain and will therefor receive a lot of attention. The crucial question will be how the Federal Reserve will react to the escalation of the trade war with China and thus to
The US-China Trade Conflict: How Long Will This Keep Going On?
Investment Strategy Insights Most emerging countries are economically fragile when entering the World Trade Organization (WTO) and are granted leniencies not available to developed countries. As China grew within the WTO to an economic superpower, it became clear that the
Nieuwe zet in handelsconflict
Politieke risico’s domineren Geopolitieke risico’s eisten de afgelopen maanden weer een hoofdrol op. Het handelsconflict tussen de Verenigde Staten en China escaleerde, terwijl een oplossing juist binnen handbereik leek. Het geschil tussen beide landen draait om meer dan handel alleen.
US vs. China: Trade War Looming, or Overstated Hysteria?
Strategy Espresso “Full-Blown Trade War is Quickly Shifting from Risk to ‘Baseline’” read a Bloomberg headline on Thursday 23 May, as analysts and economists from multiple institutions began adjusting their assumptions regarding whether a trade deal between the US and
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios It was only a few weeks back that the S&P 500 made new record highs, first quarter U.S. GDP soundly beat consensus with a well-above-trend 3.2% print and European data began to show signs of
The Outlook for Escalating Trade Tensions
Recognizing that uncertainties regarding U.S./China trade tensions have multiplied, our perspective on recent developments are based on the question of: “what do we actually know?”
The Fed Holds, the Economy Carries on…Trade Wars Reignite
Fixed Income Perspectives As expected, at its April–May meeting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to hold the Fed funds rate steady in the 2.25–2.50% range. The few changes to the press release language acknowledged the solid economic
UBS House View, Investor’s Guide
No rush? On Thursday 2 May, US productivity grew at a nine-year high. The next day, the US celebrated unemployment at a 50-year low. But investors who partied into the weekend were sick Monday morning after President Donald Trump tweeted he
Emerging Market Debt Update
Investors turn to social media for tariff-truce updates ahead of a presidential in-person meeting at the G20 in June. Financial market participants spent much of the week monitoring the Twitter account of the US President in an attempt to decipher
China Watch
Oops, he did it again US-China tensions re-escalate … affecting stock markets and the yuan Complete breakdown of talks not likely, but uncertainty remains high
US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war
Investment Talks In our opinion, investors should dismiss the idea that talks could break down, albeit uncertainties remain. Recent work has focused on details and wording, with the majority of the agreement document having been completed. However, several major issues
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios After several months of calm, recent weeks have brought a resurgence of international trade disputes; the U.S. and China raised tariffs again on each other’s goods, and other trade issues continue to ferment. Although the
Trade Talks Take A Detour
Weekly Economic Commentary Trade negotiations between China and the United States took a sudden turn last week, when the White House announced new tariffs. China responded early this week with countermeasures. These provocations came as a rude awakening after three
US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war
Investment Talks After the US raised its tariffs on $200bn of Chinese products from 10% to 25%, China announced retaliation measures on $60bn of US goods to take effect on 1st of June. More specifically, the new tariffs will be
Do President Trump’s trade threats spell doom for markets?
Market excitement about a resolution to the long-running U.S.-China trade dispute built ahead of (what were rumored to be) the final round of negotiations this week. However, comments from President Trump midday Sunday helped to dash that optimism. He threated
U.s. Economic & interest rate outlook
Rumors of a contraction to start the year were overblown. Since March, a string of positive economic headlines have helped soothe investor sentiment and maintain economic momentum. We are still in a growth cycle with room to run.
Economic & Market Observations: Powell the Padawan
One wonders if Jerome Powell had a premonition of a bad feeling when he was offered the job as Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed). His first year involved a lot of on-the-job training, including an equity market correction, outbursts
Barometer: Beware of exuberance
The S&P 500 hit all-time highs in April with investor optimism fuelled by rising corporate margins. But we remain underweight US stocks, and are instead attracted to the better growth prospects and valuations of emerging markets. Net profit margins in
Who Will Lead the World Economy?
US vs. EU vs. China – USD vs. EUR vs. RMB When we talk about leadership, we also talk about rivalry… and 2018 was undoubtedly a particularly emblematic year of rivalry, especially between the United States and China, and to
Index Dashboard: U.S.
U.S. equities gained steam in April, powered by positive earnings, potential progress in U.S./China trade talks, and recent dovish sentiment from the Fed. The S&P 500®, the S&P MidCap 400® and S&P SmallCap 600® all gained 4%, and the VIX®
Peak Profit Margins? A US Perspective
Over the last two decades, US corporate profit margins have surged and have contributed more than half of the excess return of equities relative to cash. Without that consistent expansion of margins, US equities would be 40% lower than they
From Trade War to Trade Talks?
Macro Weekly Talks on trade between the US and EU and Japan look to be on the cards The spectre of a trade war has haunted a global economy this year already struggling with the lagged effects of the tightening
Falling Angels? Credit Market Risks and Opportunities
Viewpoint April 2019 U.S. corporate bond markets have transformed in the past few years as the proportion of BBB rated credit has swollen. There’s little room for error, as we noted back in January 2018. Where do we stand now?
Falling Angels? Credit Market Risks and Opportunities
Viewpoint April 2019 U.S. corporate bond markets have transformed in the past few years as the proportion of BBB rated credit has swollen. There’s little room for error, as we noted back in January 2018. Where do we stand now?
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Asset Allocation Consensus June
Asset Allocation Consensus Equities June 2019 on Youtube: https://t.co/WD3mMy1JgI
