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Careful Market Selection Beats Demographic Headwinds

Careful Market Selection Beats Demographic Headwinds

🕔15:19, 23.Sep 2022

US commercial real estate (CRE) investors are well-versed in the importance of economic growth to property investment performance. Focus on the Covid-19 recession, policies to truncate it and the path of recovery have dominated the attention of analysts for more

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Entering the Superbubble’s Final Act

Entering the Superbubble’s Final Act

🕔12:38, 7.Sep 2022

Most of the time (85% or thereabouts) markets behave quite normally. In these periods, investors (managers, clients, and individuals) are happy enough, but alas these periods do not truly matter. It is only the other 15% of the time that

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Recessie, fragmentatie en onzekerheid

Recessie, fragmentatie en onzekerheid

🕔08:43, 6.Sep 2022

Beleggingsnota 2023 De trefwoorden vorig jaar in de Beleggingsnota 2022 waren: COVID-19, productieverstoringen, en “peak growth”. De inflatie begon al te stijgen, maar was nog relatief beperkt (2,2% in de eurozone en 5,4% in de VS), en werd voornamelijk als

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Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

🕔15:55, 3.Sep 2022

Quarterly Fixed Income Perspectives from Capital Group’s fixed income team: The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after

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US equities continued to see net outflows

US equities continued to see net outflows

🕔08:29, 31.Aug 2022

EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – Weekly as of 19 August 2022  ETFs experienced strong inflows last week, adding $3.8bn. Equity led with net inflows of $3.3bn while Commodity lost …  

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EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

🕔14:13, 30.Aug 2022

Historically, emerging market (EM) local currency debt has tended to weaken with rising US interest rates, but our research shows that much of this has generally occurred before Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes have taken place. As the Fed

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Caution: earnings under pressure

Caution: earnings under pressure

🕔09:30, 30.Aug 2022

Weekly commentary – August 15, 2022 Stocks are rallying as markets believe inflation is waning and the Fed will slow hikes soon. We don’t think the rally is sustainable. Why? We see the Fed hiking rates to levels that will

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Barometer: Winstberekening klopt niet

Barometer: Winstberekening klopt niet

🕔08:13, 18.Aug 2022

Aandelen blijven kwetsbaar voor een golf naar beneden bijgestelde winstprognoses, vooral in de VS en Europa. Vertragende economische groei, stijgende inflatie, strakker monetair beleid en verhoogde geopolitieke risico's hebben allemaal hun tol geëist in de financiële …

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China: Politburo drops GDP target and decrees stability in H2 2022

China: Politburo drops GDP target and decrees stability in H2 2022

🕔10:43, 17.Aug 2022

China has once again captured the attention of investors seeking shelter from unprecedented global policy tightening. This is understandable, as the country was first in, first out of the Covid pandemic and remains ahead of the curve in terms of

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Lightening the sails and monitoring the storm

Lightening the sails and monitoring the storm

🕔14:54, 8.Aug 2022

It was a bruising first half of the year for financial market participants, with U.S. and global stocks entering bear market territory while core bonds, generally considered “safe-haven” assets, declined by double digits. Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to warp

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Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022

Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022

🕔10:44, 28.Jul 2022

As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and

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US Consumer Inflation: who loses less wins

US Consumer Inflation: who loses less wins

🕔17:00, 21.Jul 2022

June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was about the worst composition possible from a Fed perspective as it was (1) a broad-based increase that (2) accelerated. The base effect was supposed to be shading inflation down, but it’s been totally overrun

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Rates roller coaster

Rates roller coaster

🕔17:38, 12.Jul 2022

The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its latest meeting to raise the fed funds rate by 75bp pushed expectations for the peak level next year to more than 4%. Simultaneously, fears that economic growth is slowing more quickly than

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Look to credit opportunities amid bond market rout

Look to credit opportunities amid bond market rout

🕔08:00, 11.Jul 2022

It is no secret that 2022 has been challenging for fixed income investors. High inflation and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s initiation of interest rate hikes have weighed on markets. Nevertheless, the broad credit universe provides ample opportunities for investors

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Why should you consider owning bonds now?

Why should you consider owning bonds now?

🕔10:58, 4.Jul 2022

The extent of the Q1 drawdown in fixed income markets was both large and rare relative to history. The aftermath of the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine propelled inflation in developed markets around the world to multi-decade highs. In

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Maintaining a cautious tilt

Maintaining a cautious tilt

🕔14:40, 28.Jun 2022

Thanks to a month-end rally, global equities ultimately posted relatively flat returns for the month of May. It was a volatile month for global bonds, too. Yields initially spiked higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield peaking at 3.2%, while

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Growth Traps Snap Shut

Growth Traps Snap Shut

🕔15:34, 20.Jun 2022

What do Netflix, Peloton Interactive, Coinbase, and Palantir Technologies have in common? I admit it isn’t a particularly challenging question. As anyone who has been following the U.S. stock market in the last 10 months knows all too well, they

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Is a Yield Curve Inversion Bad for Stock Returns?

Is a Yield Curve Inversion Bad for Stock Returns?

🕔13:53, 20.Jun 2022

Many investors see yield curve inversions—when short-term bond yields exceed longterm yields—as foreboding. Do they signal a stock market downturn? Data from the US and other major economies show yield curve inversions have not historically predicted …

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Cyclical, structural and geopolitical challenges in play for US CRE

Cyclical, structural and geopolitical challenges in play for US CRE

🕔13:16, 13.Jun 2022

US CRE MARKET INSIGHTS June 2022: First quarter US CRE investment performance reported by NCREIF’s National Property Index (NPI) offers a continuation of the extraordinary total returns produced during 2021. Total return for the year ending March 2022 reached a

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Downturn in the US financial cycle may be near

Downturn in the US financial cycle may be near

🕔08:37, 6.Jun 2022

With the US Federal Reserve in a full-on fight against inflation, concerns are rising that tighter monetary policy could tip the US economy into a recession. A look at longer-term financial cycles …

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Summary of Economic Projections

Summary of Economic Projections

🕔21:57, 3.Jun 2022

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 14–15, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year

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Markets Continue to Discount That the Fed Will Achieve a Soft Landing; Is That Likely?

Markets Continue to Discount That the Fed Will Achieve a Soft Landing; Is That Likely?

🕔08:42, 1.Jun 2022

Earnings are priced in to keep rising while inflation is priced in to fall. It rarely works out that way. US equities are down about 10% so far this year, but until the last couple of days, this was driven

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Active, Passive, Retail, ESG and Value; Oh My!

Active, Passive, Retail, ESG and Value; Oh My!

🕔15:57, 16.May 2022

In this article, we try to address the following questions: (1) how has the US equity market evolved over the past few years in terms of active, passive, and retail investors?; (2) how has the factor-investing landscape changed (including ESG

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Inflation, central banks and rising rates – Q&A with Andrew Cormack

Inflation, central banks and rising rates – Q&A with Andrew Cormack

🕔14:19, 12.May 2022

It feels as though US policy makers have spent the entire post-global financial crisis period trying to generate inflation. Now that it’s here, it seems like the wrong kind of inflation. How do you see inflation playing out in the

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The Consumer Report

The Consumer Report

🕔08:03, 11.May 2022

Households are about to experience the biggest hit to disposable income in a long time. Rising inflation, continued supply chain constraints and now the Russia-Ukraine war have piled on seemingly all at once. The swelling piggybanks from stashing away cash

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Inflation Could Change Everything for Asset Allocations and Yield Curves

Inflation Could Change Everything for Asset Allocations and Yield Curves

🕔09:45, 9.May 2022

Despite recent increases in interest rates, the U.S. Treasury yield curve remains largely flat and has even inverted in some parts after maturities of two or three years. But the short end of the curve remains quite …

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Revisiting U.S. growth in a challenging environment

Revisiting U.S. growth in a challenging environment

🕔10:28, 4.May 2022

Equity Perspectives: Janus Henderson provides an active approach to equity investing. The equities platform is shaped by the belief that fundamental research is the foundation for delivering long-term, risk-adjusted returns to help clients achieve their financial goals. Independent thought and

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US economy and markets look resilient regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis

US economy and markets look resilient regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis

🕔11:03, 3.May 2022

Market assessment: After an initial negative reaction to the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, US equities markets are now above their pre-war levels. US equity volatility has proven much lower compared to Europe, which is more exposed to the crisis and to the

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Drivers of Deep value: International Evidence

Drivers of Deep value: International Evidence

🕔09:32, 3.May 2022

Evaluating the components of deep value returns in Europe and Japan

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The Reckoning

The Reckoning

🕔13:10, 2.May 2022

Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the

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Financial markets remain fragile

Financial markets remain fragile

🕔15:10, 26.Apr 2022

After the substantial fiscal and monetary policy measures implemented in the wake of the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, a slowdown in global growth comes as no surprise to anyone. Most of the stimulus in the form of direct payments

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Commodity prices drive differentiation within EMD

Commodity prices drive differentiation within EMD

🕔10:05, 23.Apr 2022

A key channel of contagion to fixed income markets outside of Russia/Ukraine is likely to be through commodity prices. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. The US has

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Asia: Rising energy prices will hasten policy tightening in the region

Asia: Rising energy prices will hasten policy tightening in the region

🕔08:28, 15.Apr 2022

After months of heightened tensions between the Ukraine and Russia, the situation reached a turning point on February 22. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognising the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk, paving the way for the invasion of

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The U.S. loan market continued to recover ground

The U.S. loan market continued to recover ground

🕔14:12, 11.Apr 2022

Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: The U.S. loan market continued to recover ground lost in February, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) returned 0.54% for the seven-day period ended March 31. The Index saw

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US Property Investing Challenged by Rising Interest Rates and War Turbulence

US Property Investing Challenged by Rising Interest Rates and War Turbulence

🕔10:46, 5.Apr 2022

At the end of 2021, US commercial property investors were contemplating prospects for an easing Covid -19 threat in the year ahead along with still-strong economic growth accompanied by tightening interest rates to quell inflation. As often happens, it’s not

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Treasury yields rise amid continued uncertainty

Treasury yields rise amid continued uncertainty

🕔14:19, 31.Mar 2022

U.S. Treasury yields rose last week and fixed income returns were broadly negative amid continued geopolitical, economic and policy uncertainty. Spread assets remained weaker. U.S. Treasury yields continued to see heightened volatility, with 10-year yields ending the week 26 basis

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Investor demand for loans kicked into a higher gear this week

Investor demand for loans kicked into a higher gear this week

🕔08:43, 29.Mar 2022

Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: Following a period of weakness related to geopolitical tension and largely negative broad market sentiment, the U.S. loan market performed in strong fashion this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index

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Hawkish Fed Begins New Era of Monetary Tightening

Hawkish Fed Begins New Era of Monetary Tightening

🕔10:15, 24.Mar 2022

Through the melee of mounting inflation, flaring geopolitical risks and subsequently volatile capital markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve met market expectations and increased the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) while also validating market assumptions for how

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Another Covid-19 winter may prolong feast and famine for US CRE

Another Covid-19 winter may prolong feast and famine for US CRE

🕔15:20, 23.Mar 2022

US CRE Market Insights – March 2022: Recently released fourth quarter and annual 2021 US CRE investment performance data show a continuing pattern of feast or famine across the four major sectors. Feasting in the industrial sector has produced a

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China’s Central Bank Reserves

China’s Central Bank Reserves

🕔14:19, 22.Mar 2022

Starting in 2003, Michael Dooley published a series of papers proposing the idea of a Bretton Woods revival as the plausible rationale for China’s relatively extreme foreign currency reserve accumulation policy. 

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Sectors in Fed cycles

Sectors in Fed cycles

🕔16:05, 15.Mar 2022

The tragedy unfolding in the Ukraine has been the main focus for financial markets this week. The impact on global economic growth remains to be seen, but we believe that the US Federal Reserve will start tightening monetary policy by

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Inflation fears fuel rise in Treasury yields

Inflation fears fuel rise in Treasury yields

🕔11:01, 10.Mar 2022

U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, with inflation breakevens rising to reflect the risk of higher commodity prices due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Spread sectors were mixed, but mostly rallied after initial knee-jerk moves lower.

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Rising rates: what to know, what to do

Rising rates: what to know, what to do

🕔08:09, 8.Mar 2022

January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth

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Surviving and Thriving As US Credit Markets Transition

Surviving and Thriving As US Credit Markets Transition

🕔16:30, 7.Mar 2022

I'm often asked to give my perspective on the current environment. Before I do, I'd like to take a step back. During most of my career, you could take credit or interest rate risk and do relatively well. This last

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Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

🕔08:37, 7.Mar 2022

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around

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Rising rates: what to know, what to do

Rising rates: what to know, what to do

🕔12:21, 3.Mar 2022

January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth

Read Full Article
Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

🕔15:18, 1.Mar 2022

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around

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Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

🕔08:41, 25.Feb 2022

Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since

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Geopolitics impacting investor risk appetite

Geopolitics impacting investor risk appetite

🕔15:24, 22.Feb 2022

Investors remain nervous about inflation and hawkish central banks, but it’s been the tensions over Ukraine that have unsettled them most over the past week. This has been reflected in oil hitting new highs and another leg down for global

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Surviving and Thriving As US Credit Markets Transition

Surviving and Thriving As US Credit Markets Transition

🕔16:05, 21.Feb 2022

I'm often asked to give my perspective on the current environment. Before I do, I'd like to take a step back. During most of my career, you could take credit or interest rate risk and do relatively well. This last

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