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Understanding the Debt Ceiling: Its Implications and Current Outlook

Understanding the Debt Ceiling: Its Implications and Current Outlook

🕔15:22, 9.Jun 2023

In "Debt Ceiling Outlook," J.P.Morgan provides a comprehensive explanation of the debt ceiling or limit, which caps the amount the federal government is authorized to borrow to fulfill its financial obligations. The debt limit doesn't sanction new spending but funds

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Currency Hedging Can Boost Yields and Reduce Volatility

Currency Hedging Can Boost Yields and Reduce Volatility

🕔15:06, 8.Jun 2023

In his paper "Currency Hedging Can Boost Yields and Reduce Volatility", T. Rowe Price points out a crucial but often overlooked investment opportunity. He posits that while foreign currency bonds may initially seem less appealing to U.S. investors due to

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Steering Through Market Uncertainty: An Investment Guide Amidst Debt Ceiling Debates

Steering Through Market Uncertainty: An Investment Guide Amidst Debt Ceiling Debates

🕔17:29, 25.May 2023

The guide "Investor’s guide to the debt ceiling" by BlackRock underscores potential market volatility in light of the ongoing debates among Congressional leaders regarding raising the US debt ceiling. Despite the looming uncertainty, BlackRock maintains confidence in Congress's ability to

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“Understanding the US Debt Ceiling: A Potential Default Scenario

“Understanding the US Debt Ceiling: A Potential Default Scenario

🕔08:21, 18.May 2023

The report titled "The US debt ceiling: Navigating a potential default" explores the prospects of a possible US debt ceiling showdown that could lead to a default. While previous such showdowns have been averted in time, the report estimates a

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Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Actions, Employment Data, and Future Implications

Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Actions, Employment Data, and Future Implications

🕔08:07, 2.May 2023

The discussion in "Macro musings: The Fed, payrolls, and what to make of it all" revolves around the Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates, the effect on market pricing, and the potential scenarios that might prompt a change. While the

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US Dollar’s Future: Turning Point or Continued Dominance?

US Dollar’s Future: Turning Point or Continued Dominance?

🕔14:52, 26.Apr 2023

In the text "Will the US dollar continue to weaken?" by Capital Group, the main theme revolves around the uncertainty of the US dollar's future and the factors that may influence its direction. The decade-long bull run of the greenback

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Navigating Market Momentum Amid Recession and Inflation Risks

Navigating Market Momentum Amid Recession and Inflation Risks

🕔12:16, 13.Apr 2023

In Morgan Stanley’s report, “Good news, yet markets miss the point,” the main theme revolves around developed markets losing momentum after a strong start to the year. Despite receding recession risks, job data indicates a cooling labor market, raising concerns

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US Banking Crisis: Driving the Economy into Recession

US Banking Crisis: Driving the Economy into Recession

🕔16:59, 6.Apr 2023

Amundi's report, "Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession," unveils the escalating stress within the US banking sector, leading to increased funding costs and reduced lending. The author predicts a -1.1% shrink in the US economy

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How vulnerable is EM debt to volatility spillovers?

How vulnerable is EM debt to volatility spillovers?

🕔14:59, 5.Apr 2023

At the beginning of the year, the three major factors driving emerging market (EM) debt were US financial conditions, the dollar and global growth. All three factors look likely to have been changed by the current shock to the banking

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Tumbling European inflation is good news

Tumbling European inflation is good news

🕔16:07, 4.Apr 2023

Last week brought good news on US inflation but the declines were even more dramatic in Europe. However, core inflation in the Eurozone has yet to peak. We believe it will follow headline inflation lower but the ECB may want

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FOMC’s Economic Projections for 2023-2025

FOMC’s Economic Projections for 2023-2025

🕔10:07, 31.Mar 2023

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in March 2023 included projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation. Each participant's projections were based on their assessment of appropriate monetary policy and

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Converging Expectations

Converging Expectations

🕔08:52, 21.Mar 2023

In February, concerns about inflation caused a partial reversal of gains in the stock and bond markets, leading to a convergence between risky and risk-off assets. Strong US jobs and retail sales data, along with higher-than-expected inflation reports, led to

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Four Factors Shaping a Brighter Outlook for U.S. Smaller Companies

Four Factors Shaping a Brighter Outlook for U.S. Smaller Companies

🕔16:47, 17.Mar 2023

Uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook has seen smaller companies bear the brunt of investor fears over the past year. Valuations have fallen to extreme lows, relative to larger companies, despite earnings holding up reasonably well. With the U.S. economy

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A Recession May Be Delayed, Not Avoided

A Recession May Be Delayed, Not Avoided

🕔15:04, 15.Mar 2023

Equity markets rallied from the beginning of the year into early February, driven by encouraging data regarding the health of the U.S. economy and improved economic outlooks in China and Europe that were supported by the reopening of the Chinese

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US CRE Market Insights

US CRE Market Insights

🕔10:38, 14.Mar 2023

Economic developments unfolding over the first few weeks of 2023 offer some hope that a 2023 soft landing for the US macroeconomy is at least possible. Moderating inflation and a muted February fed funds increase contribute to this hope in

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Auto price normalization and what that means for the US loans market

Auto price normalization and what that means for the US loans market

🕔14:00, 13.Mar 2023

Used vehicle prices are still well above normal after declining 14.9% in 2022 following nearly two years of unprecedented levels, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (exhibit 1). Supply chain issues stemming from the pandemic, while now easing,

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Monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe: ahead of the curve?

Monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe: ahead of the curve?

🕔14:53, 7.Mar 2023

• German stagnation—rising insolvencies? German business insolvencies are rebounding albeit from a low level. • US real estate—trouble (still) ahead? Some housing market indicators have stabilized, but downside risks continue due to weaker domestic activity. The outlook for commercial real

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How Value Can Flex to Shifting Market Dynamics

How Value Can Flex to Shifting Market Dynamics

🕔12:46, 7.Mar 2023

Markets have started 2023 strongly as some of the headwinds that dominated markets in 2022 have started to dissipate. China has reopened its economy faster than expected; warm weather in the euro area has eased concerns over natural gas shortages;

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What Investors Need to Know About the U.S. Debt Ceiling

What Investors Need to Know About the U.S. Debt Ceiling

🕔12:51, 2.Mar 2023

Congress has taken action to raise the debt limit, temporarily suspend it, or revise how it is defined on 78 occasions since 1960.1 Given the potential consequences, failing to raise the debt ceiling should not be an option. However, this year,

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Beware talk of soft landings

Beware talk of soft landings

🕔16:05, 14.Feb 2023

Economies appear to be more resilient than expected. A strong US payroll gain in January encouraged talk of a soft landing and provoked a reversal of the recent uptrend in assets. I believe this will prove to be a temporary

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Quick take: Optimistic Fed not declaring victory over inflation yet

Quick take: Optimistic Fed not declaring victory over inflation yet

🕔14:27, 14.Feb 2023

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) downshifted at its February meeting, raising its benchmark interest rate by just 25 basis points (bps), as inflation has begun cooling in the US. This move was widely anticipated by markets, which have begun pricing

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This year is unlikely to be a repeat of 2022 for investors

This year is unlikely to be a repeat of 2022 for investors

🕔08:33, 14.Feb 2023

Natixis Investment Managers Solutions | Global Market Strategy: Given the resiliency shown by economic indicators, we rule out the risk for a severe recession both in the US and Europe. The outlook for a recession scenario has weakened thanks to

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Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

🕔14:03, 9.Feb 2023

Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

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The Buck Stops Here

The Buck Stops Here

🕔14:48, 2.Feb 2023

Over the last two years, the world has witnessed a parabolic strengthening of the US dollar compared to its developed-market counterparts. Dollar strengthening actually started just after the global financial crisis as a slow methodical slog higher marked by both

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U.S. Structured Credit Outlook

U.S. Structured Credit Outlook

🕔10:10, 1.Feb 2023

We believe non-agency RMBS bonds will present a very attractive investment opportunity in 2023. Prepayment-sensitive assets (e.g., agency IOs) provide a particularly compelling diversification story due to the countercyclical nature of the sector, in our view. Our current base case

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EMs with stronger fundamentals should see inflows when they resume

EMs with stronger fundamentals should see inflows when they resume

🕔10:03, 1.Feb 2023

The global environment led to sharp outflows from EM debt markets in 2022. The rise in US interest rates (and increase in EM inflation), combined with the increase in general risk premium, reduced the relative attractiveness of EM debt …

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Investment implications of U.S. transition policy

Investment implications of U.S. transition policy

🕔09:55, 19.Jan 2023

Assessing the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act and other recent legislation on the transition to a lower-carbon world. The transition to a lower-carbon economy is a driver of investment risk and return for our clients’ portfolios – so we

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What happens when the dollar weakens?

What happens when the dollar weakens?

🕔14:31, 29.Dec 2022

We believe the US dollar is expensive and starting to run on empty. Looking ahead to when the dollar weakens, we expect it to provide a ceteris paribus boost to commodities, emerging market assets and …

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Quick take: Five insights on Fed policy after the latest rate hike

Quick take: Five insights on Fed policy after the latest rate hike

🕔10:23, 22.Dec 2022

Capital Group portfolio managers consider the latest interest rate rise from the US Federal Reserve and what we can surmise from the slower pace of hiking.  The US Federal Reserve has slowed the pace of its interest rate hikes but

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Five things to know about the future of semiconductors

Five things to know about the future of semiconductors

🕔08:03, 20.Dec 2022

How fast things can change: there was a major shortage of semiconductors at the start of the pandemic, and now the industry is grappling with too much inventory in parts of the supply chain. This has led to a sell-off

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2023 Outlook: Us Commercial Real Estate

2023 Outlook: Us Commercial Real Estate

🕔14:36, 13.Dec 2022

US commercial real estate performance is responding to higher interest rates and prospects for a weaker economy in 2023. The impact affects the demand for space as shown in absorption, vacancy rates, and rent growth along with the valuation of

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Quality Time in Small Cap

Quality Time in Small Cap

🕔12:54, 16.Nov 2022

We believe a moment has arrived when long-term and short-term opportunities in quality small cap equity are finally aligned, when one can invest in high-quality small …

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Investment perspectives: US Mid-term Elections

Investment perspectives: US Mid-term Elections

🕔10:06, 15.Nov 2022

With only days to go, the wild 2022 midterms continue apace. From Democrats funding “MAGA Republicans” in primary races, to former President Trump trying his hand as kingmaker, to sacrosanct Democrat seats and governorships at risk of being flipped (we’re

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Small cap growth big opportunity

Small cap growth big opportunity

🕔08:08, 9.Nov 2022

With inflation running at a 40-year high and the Fed taking aggressive measures, is now the time to allocate to US small cap stocks? Despite their generally lower margins, US small caps have three critical things on their side right

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Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

🕔15:55, 5.Nov 2022

Quarterly Fixed Income Perspectives from Capital Group’s fixed income team: The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after

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How long might the dollar rally last?

How long might the dollar rally last?

🕔12:06, 5.Nov 2022

A rapid shift in the outlook for the global economy – punctuated by soaring inflation, Europe’s deepening woes and increasing fears of a worldwide recession – is having an enormous impact on currency markets. The US dollar has continued to climb

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35-Year Highs For The Dollar

35-Year Highs For The Dollar

🕔10:38, 3.Nov 2022

Our Currency, Our Problem. One of the most famous sentences ever uttered by a U.S. Treasury Secretary was John Connally’s November 1971 G-10 meeting quote that “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.” It’s a wonderful line, and the

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Bad news turning good

Bad news turning good

🕔11:40, 2.Nov 2022

Extracting a common thread from last week’s abundant information flows was impossible. Perhaps the critical item will be the weakness of the US economy revealed by detailed GDP data. Last week was rich in information. From UK and Chinese politics,

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The State of the U.S. Retail Investor: Insights & Implications

The State of the U.S. Retail Investor: Insights & Implications

🕔16:06, 26.Oct 2022

U.S. retail investors’ heightened market activity and engagement has been fascinating to watch over recent years. There has been a number of factors which have had a profound impact on the retail investor segment, including the pandemic, technological advancement in

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Seeking reasons to buy US equities

Seeking reasons to buy US equities

🕔13:05, 18.Oct 2022

After a 24% year-to-date decline in the S&P 500, we ask what could make us turn positive on equities. A 30% further decline would help but short of that, some combination of the start of recession, VIX above 40 and

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Global Strategy 4Q 2022

Global Strategy 4Q 2022

🕔08:31, 12.Oct 2022

Persistently high inflation rates and a significant increase in interest rates are weighing on economic momentum and pushing up volatility on the financial markets. In addition, geopolitical tensions are in place that favour safe-haven flows. We regard the medium and

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Inflation is grinding gears, looking to downshift

Inflation is grinding gears, looking to downshift

🕔12:16, 4.Oct 2022

Fixed Income Perspectives – September 2022 Inflation is likely to be the driving market force through mid-2023 at least. The August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, though somewhat higher than expected, don’t change our outlook for inflation or Fed policy,

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US CRE Market Insights – Fall 2022

US CRE Market Insights – Fall 2022

🕔10:38, 4.Oct 2022

Looking backward, US commercial real estate (CRE) produced very favorable returns over the first half of 2022 despite high inflation and a weakening US economic growth environment. With CRE investment performance historically lagging the macroeconomy, investors are pondering the possibility

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Careful Market Selection Beats Demographic Headwinds

Careful Market Selection Beats Demographic Headwinds

🕔15:19, 23.Sep 2022

US commercial real estate (CRE) investors are well-versed in the importance of economic growth to property investment performance. Focus on the Covid-19 recession, policies to truncate it and the path of recovery have dominated the attention of analysts for more

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Entering the Superbubble’s Final Act

Entering the Superbubble’s Final Act

🕔12:38, 7.Sep 2022

Most of the time (85% or thereabouts) markets behave quite normally. In these periods, investors (managers, clients, and individuals) are happy enough, but alas these periods do not truly matter. It is only the other 15% of the time that

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Recessie, fragmentatie en onzekerheid

Recessie, fragmentatie en onzekerheid

🕔08:43, 6.Sep 2022

Beleggingsnota 2023 De trefwoorden vorig jaar in de Beleggingsnota 2022 waren: COVID-19, productieverstoringen, en “peak growth”. De inflatie begon al te stijgen, maar was nog relatief beperkt (2,2% in de eurozone en 5,4% in de VS), en werd voornamelijk als

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US equities continued to see net outflows

US equities continued to see net outflows

🕔08:29, 31.Aug 2022

EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – Weekly as of 19 August 2022  ETFs experienced strong inflows last week, adding $3.8bn. Equity led with net inflows of $3.3bn while Commodity lost …  

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EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

🕔14:13, 30.Aug 2022

Historically, emerging market (EM) local currency debt has tended to weaken with rising US interest rates, but our research shows that much of this has generally occurred before Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes have taken place. As the Fed

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Caution: earnings under pressure

Caution: earnings under pressure

🕔09:30, 30.Aug 2022

Weekly commentary – August 15, 2022 Stocks are rallying as markets believe inflation is waning and the Fed will slow hikes soon. We don’t think the rally is sustainable. Why? We see the Fed hiking rates to levels that will

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Barometer: Winstberekening klopt niet

Barometer: Winstberekening klopt niet

🕔08:13, 18.Aug 2022

Aandelen blijven kwetsbaar voor een golf naar beneden bijgestelde winstprognoses, vooral in de VS en Europa. Vertragende economische groei, stijgende inflatie, strakker monetair beleid en verhoogde geopolitieke risico's hebben allemaal hun tol geëist in de financiële …

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