Over the last two years, the world has witnessed a parabolic strengthening of the US dollar compared to its developed-market counterparts. Dollar strengthening actually started just after the global financial crisis as a slow methodical slog higher marked by both
We believe non-agency RMBS bonds will present a very attractive investment opportunity in 2023. Prepayment-sensitive assets (e.g., agency IOs) provide a particularly compelling diversification story due to the countercyclical nature of the sector, in our view. Our current base case
The global environment led to sharp outflows from EM debt markets in 2022. The rise in US interest rates (and increase in EM inflation), combined with the increase in general risk premium, reduced the relative attractiveness of EM debt …
Assessing the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act and other recent legislation on the transition to a lower-carbon world. The transition to a lower-carbon economy is a driver of investment risk and return for our clients’ portfolios – so we
We believe the US dollar is expensive and starting to run on empty. Looking ahead to when the dollar weakens, we expect it to provide a ceteris paribus boost to commodities, emerging market assets and …
Capital Group portfolio managers consider the latest interest rate rise from the US Federal Reserve and what we can surmise from the slower pace of hiking. The US Federal Reserve has slowed the pace of its interest rate hikes but
How fast things can change: there was a major shortage of semiconductors at the start of the pandemic, and now the industry is grappling with too much inventory in parts of the supply chain. This has led to a sell-off
US commercial real estate performance is responding to higher interest rates and prospects for a weaker economy in 2023. The impact affects the demand for space as shown in absorption, vacancy rates, and rent growth along with the valuation of
We believe a moment has arrived when long-term and short-term opportunities in quality small cap equity are finally aligned, when one can invest in high-quality small …
With only days to go, the wild 2022 midterms continue apace. From Democrats funding “MAGA Republicans” in primary races, to former President Trump trying his hand as kingmaker, to sacrosanct Democrat seats and governorships at risk of being flipped (we’re
With inflation running at a 40-year high and the Fed taking aggressive measures, is now the time to allocate to US small cap stocks? Despite their generally lower margins, US small caps have three critical things on their side right
Quarterly Fixed Income Perspectives from Capital Group’s fixed income team: The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after
A rapid shift in the outlook for the global economy – punctuated by soaring inflation, Europe’s deepening woes and increasing fears of a worldwide recession – is having an enormous impact on currency markets. The US dollar has continued to climb
Our Currency, Our Problem. One of the most famous sentences ever uttered by a U.S. Treasury Secretary was John Connally’s November 1971 G-10 meeting quote that “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.” It’s a wonderful line, and the
Extracting a common thread from last week’s abundant information flows was impossible. Perhaps the critical item will be the weakness of the US economy revealed by detailed GDP data. Last week was rich in information. From UK and Chinese politics,
U.S. retail investors’ heightened market activity and engagement has been fascinating to watch over recent years. There has been a number of factors which have had a profound impact on the retail investor segment, including the pandemic, technological advancement in
After a 24% year-to-date decline in the S&P 500, we ask what could make us turn positive on equities. A 30% further decline would help but short of that, some combination of the start of recession, VIX above 40 and
Persistently high inflation rates and a significant increase in interest rates are weighing on economic momentum and pushing up volatility on the financial markets. In addition, geopolitical tensions are in place that favour safe-haven flows. We regard the medium and
Fixed Income Perspectives – September 2022 Inflation is likely to be the driving market force through mid-2023 at least. The August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, though somewhat higher than expected, don’t change our outlook for inflation or Fed policy,
Looking backward, US commercial real estate (CRE) produced very favorable returns over the first half of 2022 despite high inflation and a weakening US economic growth environment. With CRE investment performance historically lagging the macroeconomy, investors are pondering the possibility
US commercial real estate (CRE) investors are well-versed in the importance of economic growth to property investment performance. Focus on the Covid-19 recession, policies to truncate it and the path of recovery have dominated the attention of analysts for more
Most of the time (85% or thereabouts) markets behave quite normally. In these periods, investors (managers, clients, and individuals) are happy enough, but alas these periods do not truly matter. It is only the other 15% of the time that
Beleggingsnota 2023 De trefwoorden vorig jaar in de Beleggingsnota 2022 waren: COVID-19, productieverstoringen, en “peak growth”. De inflatie begon al te stijgen, maar was nog relatief beperkt (2,2% in de eurozone en 5,4% in de VS), en werd voornamelijk als
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – Weekly as of 19 August 2022 ETFs experienced strong inflows last week, adding $3.8bn. Equity led with net inflows of $3.3bn while Commodity lost …
Historically, emerging market (EM) local currency debt has tended to weaken with rising US interest rates, but our research shows that much of this has generally occurred before Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes have taken place. As the Fed
Weekly commentary – August 15, 2022 Stocks are rallying as markets believe inflation is waning and the Fed will slow hikes soon. We don’t think the rally is sustainable. Why? We see the Fed hiking rates to levels that will
Aandelen blijven kwetsbaar voor een golf naar beneden bijgestelde winstprognoses, vooral in de VS en Europa. Vertragende economische groei, stijgende inflatie, strakker monetair beleid en verhoogde geopolitieke risico's hebben allemaal hun tol geëist in de financiële …
China has once again captured the attention of investors seeking shelter from unprecedented global policy tightening. This is understandable, as the country was first in, first out of the Covid pandemic and remains ahead of the curve in terms of
It was a bruising first half of the year for financial market participants, with U.S. and global stocks entering bear market territory while core bonds, generally considered “safe-haven” assets, declined by double digits. Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to warp
As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and
June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was about the worst composition possible from a Fed perspective as it was (1) a broad-based increase that (2) accelerated. The base effect was supposed to be shading inflation down, but it’s been totally overrun
The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its latest meeting to raise the fed funds rate by 75bp pushed expectations for the peak level next year to more than 4%. Simultaneously, fears that economic growth is slowing more quickly than
It is no secret that 2022 has been challenging for fixed income investors. High inflation and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s initiation of interest rate hikes have weighed on markets. Nevertheless, the broad credit universe provides ample opportunities for investors
The extent of the Q1 drawdown in fixed income markets was both large and rare relative to history. The aftermath of the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine propelled inflation in developed markets around the world to multi-decade highs. In
Thanks to a month-end rally, global equities ultimately posted relatively flat returns for the month of May. It was a volatile month for global bonds, too. Yields initially spiked higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield peaking at 3.2%, while
What do Netflix, Peloton Interactive, Coinbase, and Palantir Technologies have in common? I admit it isn’t a particularly challenging question. As anyone who has been following the U.S. stock market in the last 10 months knows all too well, they
Many investors see yield curve inversions—when short-term bond yields exceed longterm yields—as foreboding. Do they signal a stock market downturn? Data from the US and other major economies show yield curve inversions have not historically predicted …
US CRE MARKET INSIGHTS June 2022: First quarter US CRE investment performance reported by NCREIF’s National Property Index (NPI) offers a continuation of the extraordinary total returns produced during 2021. Total return for the year ending March 2022 reached a
With the US Federal Reserve in a full-on fight against inflation, concerns are rising that tighter monetary policy could tip the US economy into a recession. A look at longer-term financial cycles …
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 14–15, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year
Earnings are priced in to keep rising while inflation is priced in to fall. It rarely works out that way. US equities are down about 10% so far this year, but until the last couple of days, this was driven
In this article, we try to address the following questions: (1) how has the US equity market evolved over the past few years in terms of active, passive, and retail investors?; (2) how has the factor-investing landscape changed (including ESG
It feels as though US policy makers have spent the entire post-global financial crisis period trying to generate inflation. Now that it’s here, it seems like the wrong kind of inflation. How do you see inflation playing out in the
Households are about to experience the biggest hit to disposable income in a long time. Rising inflation, continued supply chain constraints and now the Russia-Ukraine war have piled on seemingly all at once. The swelling piggybanks from stashing away cash
Despite recent increases in interest rates, the U.S. Treasury yield curve remains largely flat and has even inverted in some parts after maturities of two or three years. But the short end of the curve remains quite …
Equity Perspectives: Janus Henderson provides an active approach to equity investing. The equities platform is shaped by the belief that fundamental research is the foundation for delivering long-term, risk-adjusted returns to help clients achieve their financial goals. Independent thought and
Market assessment: After an initial negative reaction to the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, US equities markets are now above their pre-war levels. US equity volatility has proven much lower compared to Europe, which is more exposed to the crisis and to the
Evaluating the components of deep value returns in Europe and Japan
Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the
After the substantial fiscal and monetary policy measures implemented in the wake of the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, a slowdown in global growth comes as no surprise to anyone. Most of the stimulus in the form of direct payments
