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Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

🕔08:41, 19.Jan 2022

Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since

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Why invest in EM local currency debt?

Why invest in EM local currency debt?

🕔10:05, 14.Jan 2022

Disappointing US dollar bond returns in EM local currency debt has led to a decline in flows into the asset class over the past decade. In this paper, we discuss the key reasons to invest in EM local currency debt, some of the factors behind the recent weakness in the asset class returns and prospects for the asset class going forward. 

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2022 US Macro Outlook

2022 US Macro Outlook

🕔08:38, 7.Jan 2022

The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what

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What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

🕔11:48, 22.Dec 2021

I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at

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US commercial real estate strong performance expected into 2022

US commercial real estate strong performance expected into 2022

🕔10:26, 15.Dec 2021

US CRE Market Insights: Commercial real estate (CRE) investment performance for US properties soared in the third quarter as unlevered total return reported by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) registered 12.1% for the four quarters ending

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Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

🕔09:34, 14.Dec 2021

Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.

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Swapshop.

Swapshop.

🕔10:22, 1.Dec 2021

Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will

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Liftoff? EM has already taken off

Liftoff? EM has already taken off

🕔14:12, 29.Nov 2021

As U.S. inflation is hitting three-decade highs, market talk has been all about “liftoff:” When will the Federal Reserve and others start raising their policy rates? This is old news in emerging markets (EMs), where many countries have already raised

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Apartment Markets Remain Robust Despite Roaring Home Purchases

Apartment Markets Remain Robust Despite Roaring Home Purchases

🕔10:53, 29.Nov 2021

As the US Covid-19 shutdown took hold in March 2020, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) moved quickly and decisively to loosen interest rates and provide liquidity to counter the recessionary effects of the virus. On March 3, 2020, the Federal

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The Big Short(ages)

The Big Short(ages)

🕔17:40, 26.Nov 2021

Shortages have challenged the recovery throughout this year, in a number of ways. Difficulties in supply chains and a slow return to work have persisted, while the costs of energy and housing are on the rise. These conditions are not

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Walking the delicate path to normalisation

Walking the delicate path to normalisation

🕔14:19, 26.Nov 2021

European Gazette: As central banks move gingerly towards normalising monetary policy, a delicate balancing act is under way. They need to tighten policy – but neither too soon, nor too quickly. Indeed, the flattening of the US yield curve in

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European markets have been strong

European markets have been strong

🕔13:54, 24.Nov 2021

Market updates: At the start of the week, President Biden signed into law the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. He is also set to announce a new US Federal Reserve Chief, which is expected to be either incumbent Jerome Powell or

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Can investors help bridge the US digital divide?

Can investors help bridge the US digital divide?

🕔14:39, 19.Nov 2021

Fast and affordable internet service has become a critical component to working, studying, accessing health care and participating in the political process – both in the US and across the globe. In 2016, the United Nations went so far as

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The Aerial View: Future-Proofing the U.S. Treasury Market

The Aerial View: Future-Proofing the U.S. Treasury Market

🕔10:21, 18.Nov 2021

Recent stresses in U.S. Treasury trading have been incongruous with a market that holds itself out as the deepest and most liquid in the world. For those trading in March 2020, it was surprising how the pandemic-induced panic threatened the

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Fed announces start of tapering

Fed announces start of tapering

🕔08:51, 18.Nov 2021

At its November meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) left the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00-0.25%. The Fed maintained its guidance on the policy rate, saying it expects to

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Het beleggingseffect van tektonische verschuivingen

Het beleggingseffect van tektonische verschuivingen

🕔15:55, 16.Nov 2021

Toen Joe Biden werd verkozen, werd er wereldwijd een zucht van verlichting geslaakt. Eindelijk waren ‘we’ verlost van een president die de wereld uit elkaar dreef. In de tijd dat Trump aan de macht was, stond een handelsoorlog regelmatig bovenaan

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Communication breakdown.

Communication breakdown.

🕔14:21, 16.Nov 2021

Bond markets, which have been under considerable pressure recently, saw a very sharp turnaround last week as the US Federal Reserve did no more than expected in the US, while the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, and the European

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The pace of the global economic recovery

The pace of the global economic recovery

🕔14:15, 15.Nov 2021

Market updates – 5 November 2021: Following September’s decline, US equities came back strongly in October following a better than expected Q3 results season. The month saw the S&P 500 up by 6.9% with a 3% gain in the last

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The winner takes it all.

The winner takes it all.

🕔10:42, 9.Nov 2021

US equities printed a new high as we end October while bonds remain mired in volatility with yields near their highs for the last 12 months – see chart of the week. Meanwhile, risk markets in fixed income are locked

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Gold as a strategic allocation

Gold as a strategic allocation

🕔08:53, 8.Nov 2021

In this paper, we evaluate the case for gold as a strategic allocation in an institutional portfolio. We start with a brief history of gold as an early form of money, its relationship to fiat currencies, and as an investment.

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Europe: 6 reasons for higher inflation and faster growth

Europe: 6 reasons for higher inflation and faster growth

🕔10:17, 4.Nov 2021

Against the spectre of soaring energy prices, labour shortages and supply chain constraints, a question that has arisen in the US has landed firmly on European shores: will inflation continue to rise and how persistent will it be? The prevailing

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Recovery headwinds spur large-cap Growth rebound

Recovery headwinds spur large-cap Growth rebound

🕔16:46, 3.Nov 2021

The robust reopening rally in US stocks lost steam in Q3, mired by broad September losses, as investors recalibrated expectations for the US recovery, inflation and Fed policy support. Amid big swings in risk appetite and a late-quarter bondmarket selloff,

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More taper talk boosts Treasury yields

More taper talk boosts Treasury yields

🕔16:05, 2.Nov 2021

U.S. Treasury yields rose last week and the yield curve flattened amid positive economic data and further signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell of a taper announcement at the November meeting. The market now prices two full rate hikes

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China-US monetary policy divergence – Implications for Asia

China-US monetary policy divergence – Implications for Asia

🕔12:55, 28.Oct 2021

Diverging macroeconomic policies in China and the US have created market volatility recently amid concerns that China’s growth slowdown could spill over into Asia and a less generous US central bank could mean tighter US dollar liquidity for …

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Incorporating ESG into US equity benchmarks

Incorporating ESG into US equity benchmarks

🕔09:01, 27.Oct 2021

Investors who want to incorporate ESG considerations into a broad US market passive portfolio have traditionally had to accept a certain (often high) level of deviation from the risk and return characteristics of the underlying benchmark. 

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US: The Great Normalization

US: The Great Normalization

🕔12:29, 26.Oct 2021

The long-term outlook for the US economy calls for peak cycle growth occurring in the summer of 2021 and then a continued moderation towards more trend-like levels over time. This positive growth runway is the flip side of the pandemic-driven

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Credit events in China (I) – The macroeconomic impact

Credit events in China (I) – The macroeconomic impact

🕔15:05, 25.Oct 2021

Financial market observers have drawn parallels between the recent credit events in China[1] and past crises such as the 2008 US subprime crisis triggered by the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers and the 1998 collapse of hedge fund

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Weekly investment update – Stagflation chatter

Weekly investment update – Stagflation chatter

🕔10:26, 25.Oct 2021

Domestic energy supply shortages in Europe and dependence on volatile global markets are contributing to record gas prices across the continent. In the US, the latest inflation data is further testing the US Federal Reserve’s hypothesis that …

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A strategic policy shift and the outlook for China’s private sector

A strategic policy shift and the outlook for China’s private sector

🕔10:09, 21.Oct 2021

What should investors make of the flurry of regulatory tightening that China has implemented since the second half of 2020? How do the measures fit into China’s central strategy as it seeks to strengthen its domestic sector and embarks on

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Removing the crutches

Removing the crutches

🕔10:23, 14.Oct 2021

After a good start, September saw equity markets take a hit, particularly in emerging Asia. Alongside ongoing investor concerns about the pandemic and weakening global growth momentum, markets were rocked by news of debt payment problems at Chinese property developer

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Twin shocks roil Asian asset markets

Twin shocks roil Asian asset markets

🕔10:14, 13.Oct 2021

Weekly investment update: The recent spikes in energy prices and US Treasury bond yields have strained emerging Asia’s asset prices and currencies. Rising commodity prices are worsening Asia’s balance of payments dynamics, putting the currencies of large oil-importing countries under

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Jolly green giant Gilt.

Jolly green giant Gilt.

🕔11:05, 5.Oct 2021

The ‘excitement’ of an FOMC meeting, shenanigans at Evergrande, revised forecasts from the OECD and the German general election led to a rise in yields last week (see chart of the week). The US Federal Reserve presented a more hawkish

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Fed taper looks likely, boosting Treasury yields

Fed taper looks likely, boosting Treasury yields

🕔14:50, 4.Oct 2021

U.S. Treasury yields closed higher last week, led by longer maturities. After starting the week lower due to Chinese market fears, rates jumped sharply on Thursday to finish the week about eight basis points  …

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Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

🕔09:12, 29.Sep 2021

Equities have remained buoyant over the past weeks despite some challenges (China regulation, Afghanistan crisis), primarily due to the exceptional earnings seasons in the US and Europe. Looking ahead, we identify three main themes: the spread of the Delta Covid

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An uneasy truce

An uneasy truce

🕔16:21, 28.Sep 2021

The past month has seen geopolitics move back into the headlines as the United States and its allies made a final withdrawal from Afghanistan. Reflecting on the often messy resolution of military conflicts over the ages, the concept …

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The Return of Volatility May Signal a Buying Opportunity, Not a Bear Market

The Return of Volatility May Signal a Buying Opportunity, Not a Bear Market

🕔10:49, 22.Sep 2021

Judging from the performance of equity markets alone, the past four to six weeks appear to have followed the theme of the previous 12 months: a relentless rally in risk assets. When other markets are considered, though, a very different picture emerges.

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US CRE Market Insights – September 2021

US CRE Market Insights – September 2021

🕔09:33, 15.Sep 2021

It feels so good to celebrate the recovery from the Covid-19 recession. Economists in both the UK and US are turning out bright and buoyant forecasts for strong economic growth in both 2021 and 2022. Jobs are readily available and

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Q2 2021 bank earnings have beaten market expectations

Q2 2021 bank earnings have beaten market expectations

🕔16:16, 9.Sep 2021

Flash Update: Q2 2021 proved to be another good quarter for banks, beating market expectations once again. These beats were generally driven by better revenues in capital market divisions, especially equity trading and M&A, whilst loan loss provisions continued to

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Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

🕔18:14, 8.Sep 2021

Equities have remained buoyant over the past weeks despite some challenges (China regulation, Afghanistan crisis), primarily due to the exceptional earnings seasons in the US and Europe. Looking ahead, we identify three main themes: the spread of the Delta Covid

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Quick take on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Quick take on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

🕔08:17, 8.Sep 2021

brief summary of their views. In his speech, Chairman Powell indicated that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is on track to begin tapering its $120 billion-per-month asset purchase program later this year and shared a dovish view on US inflation.

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Another amazingly good quarter. What next?

Another amazingly good quarter. What next?

🕔13:19, 7.Sep 2021

The markets easily withstood many adversities in the summer. In the coming twelve months equities and real estate remain our favorites, though their potential returns are only moderate.  Asurprisingly good quarter is behind us. Despite the delta variant, the U.S.-China

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The Delta dilemma

The Delta dilemma

🕔11:58, 6.Sep 2021

Asset Allocation Monthly: During August, investor edginess increased. Financial markets partly reflected this with a decline in equities and commodities, a fall in long-term bond yields, and a rise in the US dollar. Expectations about the US Federal Reserve’s monetary

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Real Estate Outlook – Edition 3, 2021

Real Estate Outlook – Edition 3, 2021

🕔15:52, 3.Sep 2021

Recovery in the economy and real estate investment markets gathered pace in the second quarter, though the new Delta variant of the virus poses a threat. Real estate showed strong returns in the first half of the year, driven by

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Big Tech Stocks: How to gauge regulatory risk

Big Tech Stocks: How to gauge regulatory risk

🕔08:16, 2.Sep 2021

When it comes to America’s biggest technology companies, it seems like regulatory risk has never been higher. Most large technology platforms are facing pressure from US and European authorities, while lawmakers on Capitol Hill seem more inclined to doing something

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Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

🕔08:23, 1.Sep 2021

– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis

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High Yield Market Remains Attractive, but …

High Yield Market Remains Attractive, but …

🕔09:46, 25.Aug 2021

Various Push-Pull Factors Argue for a Watchful Investment Approach: The U.S. and global high-yield markets experienced a strong second quarter. Year-over-year trends in corporate fundamentals based on first-quarter earnings released in the …

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Another quiet week

Another quiet week

🕔10:34, 24.Aug 2021

In Credit: Bond markets continue to lack much direction. It was inflation week in the US. As expected, the headline rate of consumer price inflation came in at 5.4%, unchanged from the prior month (see Chart of the week), while

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Worried About Inflation? Pay Attention to Labor Participation

Worried About Inflation? Pay Attention to Labor Participation

🕔03:58, 24.Aug 2021

Fixed Income Perspectives: U.S. consumer prices see their largest increase since 2008, topping all estimates. That summarizes headlines about recent inflation data. Since the beginning of this year, our view has been that the change …

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The arrival of long expected inflation.

The arrival of long expected inflation.

🕔13:02, 20.Aug 2021

In Credit: Inflation had long been expected to rise – and rise it has! Data released from the US and UK last week showed a jump in prices that exceeded (increased) expectations by some margin. Starting in the US, Consumer

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Dynamic US Dollar Bond: Positioning for rising rates

Dynamic US Dollar Bond: Positioning for rising rates

🕔15:25, 19.Aug 2021

Flash Update: Following the continued improving macroeconomic backdrop, the Fed are expected to signal a cessation of monetary stimulus in the coming months, initially with asset purchase tapering, followed by raising interest rates. In anticipation of such a move, investors

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