With investors struggling to find much‑needed yield, we believe emerging market (EM) local bonds offer attractive opportunities. The yields on offer from a number of EM local bond markets are among the highest currently available in fixed income, while EM currencies are attractively valued and look set to benefit from the U.S. dollar cycle …
Winter hit with a vengeance in Texas during the week of February 15 significantly impacting electricity production in the state. Extreme cold temperatures in the region affected the entire electric grid leading to massive rolling blackouts. Customers suffered as blackouts persisted, pipes began to burst in homes and power costs spiked for those who could get it and had variable contracts.
As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as well as other measures of “normality” …
It was Presidents Day in the US on 15 February and we imagine ex-President Trump will be celebrating more than most after being acquitted in his second impeachment vote. There was, however, less to celebrate in government bond land.
When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.” This time-tested maxim can work well for finding a path out of personal debt. Small behavioral changes can allow people to stop running up credit accounts and start paying them down. But when the “hole” represents …
Markets continued to focus on hopes for a recovery rather than risks. The epidemic seems to be slowing in the United States and in United Kingdom. It appears to be under control in Europe.
Keynesians were fairly united when they were in the policy wilderness, but now that their views are dominant and they can finally seize the levers of macro policy, dissent is emerging. Lawrence Summers is taking issue …
The US inflation numbers published this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were slightly below consensus at 1.4% for annual headline inflation, basically unchanged from last month. Quite a contrast compared to the latest German and EU inflation numbers, which were …
While the Biden administration put eradicating the coronavirus at the top of its agenda, taking action on regulations with executive orders has also been a top priority. Deregulation was a defining focus of …
2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.
In 1952, Harry Markowitz published “Portfolio Selection” and helped usher in the era of modern portfolio theory. Harry’s work showed us that a portfolio’s risk is not defined by the riskiness of its individual assets, but by the extent the portfolio’s assets’ price movements …
In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields. A renewed ‘taper tantrum’ looks unlikely as excess capacity and high unemployment rates will prevent …
Webinar – Where next for markets – focus on the US Register for a webcast with our Chief Strategist, Luca Paolini, where he will centre his thoughts on the US. In this month’s asset allocation webcast Luca will focus his
US government spending to help the economy cope with the dire consequences of COVID-19 looks set to reach record peacetime levels, but absent a boost to inflation, it is unlikely to set in motion a push for higher interest rates anytime soon. Senior US economist Mark Allan explains.
In the 2020 US election, Joe Biden won and that put a Democrat in the White House. What does a Democrat win mean for investors? And what do asset managers think the implications will be?
A lot of OpinioPro readers gave the financial long-term outlook of Capital Group a good look. The key takeways from what Capital Group is expecting from the future is that economic growth is making a comeback whilst the current low interest rates can help investors move to the equity markets instead of other asset classes. What definitely makes this article worth reading is the very informative COVID winners and losers section it provides.
The success of the Federal Reserve’s emergency intervention in March 2020 played a crucial role in stabilizing and improving liquidity in U.S. credit markets. The cessation of the Fed’s corporate credit facilities, in our opinion, lowers the risk of unintended imbalances within credit markets that could potentially …
“Turning to the tasks of our time” Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States Markets at a glance President Biden kicked off his new term with a flurry of executive orders and directives (30) in his first three days
Recent news about the COVID-19 pandemic has been worrying, with more contagious strains of the virus spreading internationally, rising contamination rates, and healthcare systems on the verge of being overwhelmed, particularly in the UK and the US.
The 2016 Paris Agreement is at a critical juncture for at least two reasons. First, it recently celebrated its five-year anniversary. It is far too early to analyse the Agreement’s “achievements”, but that will not stop critics from trying. This scrutiny should be welcomed by those whose fear that not enough attention is being paid to rising temperatures’ grave threat to mankind. After all, 2020 was the second-hottest …
The election of Joe Biden as the new US President places the world’s biggest economy back at the heart of international efforts to limit global warming. The Democrats’ environmental agenda is as bold as they come. A pledge to re-join the Paris Climate Accord within …
It really is different this time. While this is not the first pandemic the US has faced, our reaction to it — the restrictions placed on portions of the US economy, and the policy response — are truly unprecedented. First, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic about the US economy over the longer term. Official productivity statistics likely understate the impact of innovation …
Webinar – Reset or Rebound? To what extent is the world really changing and what are the long term investment implications? As we move into 2021, the world is coming to terms with transformative trends and events. How are governments
As we go to press, it looks likely that Democrats will also run the Senate, in addition to the White House and the House of Representatives. With expectations that this will translate into greater fiscal stimulus in the near-term, bond
The estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for CY 2021 is 22.1%, which is above the 10- year average (annual) earnings growth rate of 10.0%. If 22.1% is the actual growth rate for the year, it will
Webinar – U.S. High Yield Strategy Update Kevin Loome, CFA®, portfolio manager of the U.S. High Yield Bond Strategy and Gregor Dannacher, CFA®, portfolio specialist, share insights on how they are responding to these rapidly changing markets and uncovering new
US bond yields buoyed by the ‘Blue Wave’ In Credit As the US Political landscape evolves (after Democratic Party victories in Georgia) and the risk of increased (bond-financed) government spending grows, US bond yields have also risen materially. This is
Executive Order banning trading in designated Chinese entities increases uncertainty on the horizon and reaffirms importance of diversification. Once characterized by mutual cooperation, the U.S.-China relationship has undergone a significant shift since the onset of the trade war initiated by
China Market Outlook 2021 Thanks to its rapid control of the coronavirus, China is the only major economy that is expected to post positive economic growth this year, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which recently raised
The results of the two U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia on Jan. 5 could determine the size and scope of fiscal stimulus to address economic strains caused by the coronavirus pandemic. A shift in the Senate’s partisan majority could
While the U.S. elections grind toward the finish line, risk markets—after a bumpy ride—are hovering close to all‑time highs. In light of surprisingly close elections that will likely lead to a split Congress, legislative gridlock, and inadequate fiscal support, this
Monthly Investment Outlook – December Key points Downside risks weigh on Q4 growth in several countries due to rising contagion and pressure on hospitals; European activity should contract in Q4, and a parallel slowdown is expected in the US, while
With the prospect of early access to effective vaccines getting steadily stronger, the major question for investors in US equity markets is how to position their portfolios for an economy returning to normal after the Covid-19 shock? This question begs
With a new US administration on the horizon, we spoke with David Metzner from the independent research firm ACG Analytics about what to expect from the new administration when it comes to China and Chinese companies. While a broad-scale pullback
The end of a chapter! Interested in learning what caught the eye of our readers in the past few weeks? Then look no further because this article will discuss the four best read articles of our site. As we are
Big Picture Update A global pandemic, recession, and regime change in the US are some of the issues facing commercial real estate (CRE) investors. These headwinds have already presented investors with unique challenges that have impacted property performance with a
A look at the personal investing behavior of Vanguard’s 5 million retail households Vanguard investors have a long-term risk outlook The typical Vanguard household holds a long-term, risk-taking portfolio that's both diversified and balanced. The average portfolio consists of 63%
2021 Outlook and Beyond The US election outcome and the hopes that the Covid-19 vaccine will be a tangible reality by the end of the year or the beginning of 2021 bode well for a worldwide economic recovery. China is
Markets | December 2020 Seek income in credit products. The US Federal Reserve’s aggressive response to the coronavirus pandemic has driven yields on safe-haven debt to near zero, leaving “low-risk” portfolios increasingly susceptible to interest rate-driven price volatility. We believe
For the 2021 batch of Outrageous Predictions, we decided for the most part to don our futurist caps rather than getting too bogged down in market trends and central bank policies. That is largely because the Covid-19 pandemic and the
2021 US Outlook What a difference a year makes! This time last year we presented our base economic case of GDP slowing to a sub-2% number as the cycle matured (our forecast was 1.8% for 2020). Slow it did, but
Over the near term, we believe US CRE investment performance will be driven by the flow of property NOI generated by property occupancy and effective rents along with changes in property valuations, which may be negative. Measurement protocols for property
December 2020 Emerging-market debt (EMD) continued to benefit from a broad market rally in the third quarter of 2020, with local-currency sovereign EMD, hard-currency sovereign and corporate credit all posting positive returns. We hold a higher conviction for currencies, as
#ESG “Joe Biden could bring Paris climate goals within striking distance” was the headline of a recent article posted by the Guardian. With the recent election of Joe Biden as the new president of the United States, global heating could
Investment Insights While each crisis is different, what is striking about this global pandemic is that (excluding China) the impact on emerging market assets appears to be more dire than the spread of the virus itself to those countries. The
Investment Insights The US election results and the announcement of a potential COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer have been pivotal events in markets, initially providing a substantial boost to risk assets. Mixed economic data and a rapidly rising rate of coronavirus
In our 2021 Investment Outlook, we seek to help investors navigate the next phases of the pandemic, the legacy of the lockdowns, and the ensuing economic recovery. We also consider how solutions to the climate crisis can be found at
Monthly Investment Outlook – December Key points Downside risks weigh on Q4 growth in several countries due to rising contagion and pressure on hospitals; European activity should contract in Q4, and a parallel slowdown is expected in the US, while
T. Rowe Price Insights on the U.S. Election Although President Donald Trump has not conceded the race and has mounted legal challenges to contest key state results, the 2020 U.S. elections appear to have produced a presidential win for Democrat
Investment Insights Is the U.S. dollar entering a new multiyear bear cycle, or is it just experiencing an episode of weakness in an already decade-long bull run? It’s a question at the top of investors’ minds given the dollar’s steady
The Biden administration is letting the DOL’s latest rule go into effect. Learn what this decision may mean for 401(k) professionals. https://bit.ly/3stCXPG #dolrule #dolfiduciaryrule #retirementplanprofessionals #retirementplanregulations #retirementplans
Compliance professionals in private banks have adopted new digital technologies to keep their skills and methods up to date. For more details from our Group Head of Risks & Compliance #Raoul_Jacot_Descombes, read his article in @letemps.
"A year after the #Covid19 outbreak triggered widespread social and economic upheaval, #Asia is emerging out of the crisis stronger and with greater influence on the world stage, pulling the ..." Read more by @PictetAM_NL on @Opinio_Pro -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2021/02/pictet-asset-management/new-asian-century-post-pandemic-opportunity/
