Key Messages 1. Lessons from the US-Iran conflict. Last week, Iran executed its announced retaliation, firing missiles against US military bases in Iraq. Oil prices jumped 5% and S&P 500 futures pointed to a 1.7% lower start to the day
De standaard voor opticiens in de Verenigde Staten is een 20/20-zicht (20/20 vision). Dat geeft aan wat een "normaal" mens zonder oogafwijkingen zou moeten kunnen zien als hij 20 voet van een oogkaart staat. Een 20/20-zicht betekent dat een mens
Late in the market cycle, Greg Kolb, Chief Investment Officer for Perkins Investment Management*, shares why he thinks investors would do well to focus on high-quality value or cyclical stocks, particularly outside the US. *Perkins Investment Management is a subsidiary
Global Snapshot Trends to watch: US Fed on hold 13 of 17 participants at the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting expected current official rates to remain appropriate throughout 2020. The central bank injected liquidity via Treasury bill purchases and
Weekly commentary • The recent sharp escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions serves as a reminder of the potential for flare-ups in geopolitical risks as we enter 2020. • We see global growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next six
Weekly Investment Commentary The world and market attention last week was focused on the U.S. strike against Iran and mounting tensions in the Middle East. Yet markets largely looked past geopolitical risks and started 2020 on a strong note.1 For
Maandelijkse Asset Allocatie Vooruitzichten De wereldeconomie lijkt er aan het begin van het nieuwe jaar stabieler voor te staan. Maar beleggers moeten opletten niet zelfgenoegzaam te zijn. Begin 2020 hebben beleggers redenen om optimistisch te zijn. De wereldeconomie stabiliseert zich
Even without an increase in tension with Iran, global growth this year should slow further due to the US presidential campaign, higher customs tariffs remaining in place and Chinese abnegation. THE TRADE WAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT GLOBAL GROWTH The
It is too early for either China or the United States to claim victory following the ‘Phase 1’ agreement announced last week. The ongoing 5G debate in Germany may hold the key for the US credibly to claim victory towards
The latest US tightening cycle was more aggressive than most investors realise. Should avoiding recession be seen as a win? How aggressive was the Federal Reserve’s most recent hiking cycle? Take the end rate minus the beginning rate, and the
The year 2019 has given us plenty of fodder for commentary. The Federal Reserve changed its outlook materially, recession worries rose, and the trade war carried on. All the while, the economy has continued to perform admirably, with steady growth,
Global macro risks receding. As 2019 is drawing to a close, the major global macro risks are receding. The US will not implement the round of tariff hikes on Chinese products scheduled for 15 December while the UK elections have
At rst glance, the "phase one" US-China trade deal looks to slightly exceed our expectations, suggesting modest upside to our economic growth forecasts. China and the US have agreed to a “phase one” trade deal, bringing a ceasefire at least
What is it? The Philly Fed Index is the results of a survey of roughly 250 companies with over 100 employees from the Third Federal Reserve District. This is basically a subcomponent of the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is based
The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that we could not see in the data
Competing dynamics have kept U.S. inflation largely stable, but the balance may be shifting After the turbulence of the 1970s and early 1980s, U.S. inflation entered a remarkably stable period that has persisted for the past three decades. As Figure
Week Ahead Trade agreement before December 15? The most important event for the global markets next week will be the decision on further US tariffs on Chinese imports from December 15. This will affect annual imports of about USD 150bn;
Weekly commentary • We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. • We see growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next 6
Market flash Hong Kong’s pro- democracy party won 85% of the seats in the local elections, a massive increase on the 25% seen in 2015. A few days later, Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Rights and Democracy Act into
Cross Asset Investment Strategy Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained
A moderation of NIPA corporate profits may well imply lower GDP growth in 2020. However, we do not expect a recession in the next twelve months. The Fed should stay neutral into 2020; we expect its communication to remain slightly
In brief: Investors are increasingly frustrated after years of non-US equity underperformance While US fundamentals appear to be superior, a closer look suggests the gap may be narrower than it seems With financial alchemy potentially reaching its limits, true fundamentals
The US leveraged loan market has proven to be, until recently, resilient, despite facing a challenging environment over the past few years. Outflows from the retail component of the US leveraged loan market have been incessant for the past year,
The modern firm is one of society’s most powerful inventions, with more than 50% of economic transactions taking place internally within firms rather than through market mechanisms. The decisions made by firms are major drivers of value creation and destruction
The coming months will bring with them a change in context. In addition to the five major sources of uncertainty that have rocked the market since the beginning of the year, there is now a new feature in the landscape:
World leaders and captains of industry are gathering for the @wef in @Davos.
@hanswstegeman hopes they really hear the alarm bells toll this time and calls on them to start this one very important discussion: isn’t it time to fundamentally change our economic system?
Two good questions:
1- Has #passive #investing helped drive the mega-cap, FAANG-led, #outperformance over the last five years?
2- And has that led to potential advantages from #active #management at this point in time? -> http://bit.ly/2RIZbwn via @FTSERussell
"We more than ever need a targeted investment agenda that stimulates ‘real’ economic growth," @hanswstegeman argues, "instead of the current financial agenda, which above all sustains elevated asset prices."
Discover our Q1 2020 Economic Outlook on our website now.
