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Growth Traps Snap Shut

Growth Traps Snap Shut

🕔15:34, 20.Jun 2022

What do Netflix, Peloton Interactive, Coinbase, and Palantir Technologies have in common? I admit it isn’t a particularly challenging question. As anyone who has been following the U.S. stock market in the last 10 months knows all too well, they

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Is a Yield Curve Inversion Bad for Stock Returns?

Is a Yield Curve Inversion Bad for Stock Returns?

🕔13:53, 20.Jun 2022

Many investors see yield curve inversions—when short-term bond yields exceed longterm yields—as foreboding. Do they signal a stock market downturn? Data from the US and other major economies show yield curve inversions have not historically predicted …

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EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

🕔14:13, 15.Jun 2022

Historically, emerging market (EM) local currency debt has tended to weaken with rising US interest rates, but our research shows that much of this has generally occurred before Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes have taken place. As the Fed

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Cyclical, structural and geopolitical challenges in play for US CRE

Cyclical, structural and geopolitical challenges in play for US CRE

🕔13:16, 13.Jun 2022

US CRE MARKET INSIGHTS June 2022: First quarter US CRE investment performance reported by NCREIF’s National Property Index (NPI) offers a continuation of the extraordinary total returns produced during 2021. Total return for the year ending March 2022 reached a

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Downturn in the US financial cycle may be near

Downturn in the US financial cycle may be near

🕔08:37, 6.Jun 2022

With the US Federal Reserve in a full-on fight against inflation, concerns are rising that tighter monetary policy could tip the US economy into a recession. A look at longer-term financial cycles …

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Summary of Economic Projections

Summary of Economic Projections

🕔21:57, 3.Jun 2022

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 14–15, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year

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Markets Continue to Discount That the Fed Will Achieve a Soft Landing; Is That Likely?

Markets Continue to Discount That the Fed Will Achieve a Soft Landing; Is That Likely?

🕔08:42, 1.Jun 2022

Earnings are priced in to keep rising while inflation is priced in to fall. It rarely works out that way. US equities are down about 10% so far this year, but until the last couple of days, this was driven

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Active, Passive, Retail, ESG and Value; Oh My!

Active, Passive, Retail, ESG and Value; Oh My!

🕔15:57, 16.May 2022

In this article, we try to address the following questions: (1) how has the US equity market evolved over the past few years in terms of active, passive, and retail investors?; (2) how has the factor-investing landscape changed (including ESG

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Inflation, central banks and rising rates – Q&A with Andrew Cormack

Inflation, central banks and rising rates – Q&A with Andrew Cormack

🕔14:19, 12.May 2022

It feels as though US policy makers have spent the entire post-global financial crisis period trying to generate inflation. Now that it’s here, it seems like the wrong kind of inflation. How do you see inflation playing out in the

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The Consumer Report

The Consumer Report

🕔08:03, 11.May 2022

Households are about to experience the biggest hit to disposable income in a long time. Rising inflation, continued supply chain constraints and now the Russia-Ukraine war have piled on seemingly all at once. The swelling piggybanks from stashing away cash

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Inflation Could Change Everything for Asset Allocations and Yield Curves

Inflation Could Change Everything for Asset Allocations and Yield Curves

🕔09:45, 9.May 2022

Despite recent increases in interest rates, the U.S. Treasury yield curve remains largely flat and has even inverted in some parts after maturities of two or three years. But the short end of the curve remains quite …

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Revisiting U.S. growth in a challenging environment

Revisiting U.S. growth in a challenging environment

🕔10:28, 4.May 2022

Equity Perspectives: Janus Henderson provides an active approach to equity investing. The equities platform is shaped by the belief that fundamental research is the foundation for delivering long-term, risk-adjusted returns to help clients achieve their financial goals. Independent thought and

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US economy and markets look resilient regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis

US economy and markets look resilient regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis

🕔11:03, 3.May 2022

Market assessment: After an initial negative reaction to the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, US equities markets are now above their pre-war levels. US equity volatility has proven much lower compared to Europe, which is more exposed to the crisis and to the

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Drivers of Deep value: International Evidence

Drivers of Deep value: International Evidence

🕔09:32, 3.May 2022

Evaluating the components of deep value returns in Europe and Japan

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The Reckoning

The Reckoning

🕔13:10, 2.May 2022

Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the

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Capital Group – Webinar – Are the US and Europe decoupling economically?

🕔09:30, 28.Apr 2022

From acquiring medical supplies to ensuring energy security, the coronavirus pandemic and war in Ukraine seem to have taught great economies a thing or two about self-sufficiency. Throughout these events, the US has demonstrated policy and economic flexibilities, while many

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Financial markets remain fragile

Financial markets remain fragile

🕔15:10, 26.Apr 2022

After the substantial fiscal and monetary policy measures implemented in the wake of the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, a slowdown in global growth comes as no surprise to anyone. Most of the stimulus in the form of direct payments

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Commodity prices drive differentiation within EMD

Commodity prices drive differentiation within EMD

🕔10:05, 23.Apr 2022

A key channel of contagion to fixed income markets outside of Russia/Ukraine is likely to be through commodity prices. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. The US has

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Asia: Rising energy prices will hasten policy tightening in the region

Asia: Rising energy prices will hasten policy tightening in the region

🕔08:28, 15.Apr 2022

After months of heightened tensions between the Ukraine and Russia, the situation reached a turning point on February 22. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognising the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk, paving the way for the invasion of

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The U.S. loan market continued to recover ground

The U.S. loan market continued to recover ground

🕔14:12, 11.Apr 2022

Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: The U.S. loan market continued to recover ground lost in February, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) returned 0.54% for the seven-day period ended March 31. The Index saw

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US Property Investing Challenged by Rising Interest Rates and War Turbulence

US Property Investing Challenged by Rising Interest Rates and War Turbulence

🕔10:46, 5.Apr 2022

At the end of 2021, US commercial property investors were contemplating prospects for an easing Covid -19 threat in the year ahead along with still-strong economic growth accompanied by tightening interest rates to quell inflation. As often happens, it’s not

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Treasury yields rise amid continued uncertainty

Treasury yields rise amid continued uncertainty

🕔14:19, 31.Mar 2022

U.S. Treasury yields rose last week and fixed income returns were broadly negative amid continued geopolitical, economic and policy uncertainty. Spread assets remained weaker. U.S. Treasury yields continued to see heightened volatility, with 10-year yields ending the week 26 basis

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Investor demand for loans kicked into a higher gear this week

Investor demand for loans kicked into a higher gear this week

🕔08:43, 29.Mar 2022

Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: Following a period of weakness related to geopolitical tension and largely negative broad market sentiment, the U.S. loan market performed in strong fashion this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index

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Hawkish Fed Begins New Era of Monetary Tightening

Hawkish Fed Begins New Era of Monetary Tightening

🕔10:15, 24.Mar 2022

Through the melee of mounting inflation, flaring geopolitical risks and subsequently volatile capital markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve met market expectations and increased the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) while also validating market assumptions for how

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Another Covid-19 winter may prolong feast and famine for US CRE

Another Covid-19 winter may prolong feast and famine for US CRE

🕔15:20, 23.Mar 2022

US CRE Market Insights – March 2022: Recently released fourth quarter and annual 2021 US CRE investment performance data show a continuing pattern of feast or famine across the four major sectors. Feasting in the industrial sector has produced a

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China’s Central Bank Reserves

China’s Central Bank Reserves

🕔14:19, 22.Mar 2022

Starting in 2003, Michael Dooley published a series of papers proposing the idea of a Bretton Woods revival as the plausible rationale for China’s relatively extreme foreign currency reserve accumulation policy. 

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Sectors in Fed cycles

Sectors in Fed cycles

🕔16:05, 15.Mar 2022

The tragedy unfolding in the Ukraine has been the main focus for financial markets this week. The impact on global economic growth remains to be seen, but we believe that the US Federal Reserve will start tightening monetary policy by

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Inflation fears fuel rise in Treasury yields

Inflation fears fuel rise in Treasury yields

🕔11:01, 10.Mar 2022

U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, with inflation breakevens rising to reflect the risk of higher commodity prices due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Spread sectors were mixed, but mostly rallied after initial knee-jerk moves lower.

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Rising rates: what to know, what to do

Rising rates: what to know, what to do

🕔08:09, 8.Mar 2022

January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth

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Surviving and Thriving As US Credit Markets Transition

Surviving and Thriving As US Credit Markets Transition

🕔16:30, 7.Mar 2022

I'm often asked to give my perspective on the current environment. Before I do, I'd like to take a step back. During most of my career, you could take credit or interest rate risk and do relatively well. This last

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Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

🕔08:37, 7.Mar 2022

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around

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Rising rates: what to know, what to do

Rising rates: what to know, what to do

🕔12:21, 3.Mar 2022

January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth

Read Full Article
Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

🕔15:18, 1.Mar 2022

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around

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Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

🕔08:41, 25.Feb 2022

Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since

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Geopolitics impacting investor risk appetite

Geopolitics impacting investor risk appetite

🕔15:24, 22.Feb 2022

Investors remain nervous about inflation and hawkish central banks, but it’s been the tensions over Ukraine that have unsettled them most over the past week. This has been reflected in oil hitting new highs and another leg down for global

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Surviving and Thriving As US Credit Markets Transition

Surviving and Thriving As US Credit Markets Transition

🕔16:05, 21.Feb 2022

I'm often asked to give my perspective on the current environment. Before I do, I'd like to take a step back. During most of my career, you could take credit or interest rate risk and do relatively well. This last

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Finding the sweet spot

Finding the sweet spot

🕔08:48, 21.Feb 2022

US inflation in January surprised once again to the upside, with the headline and core figures jumping 7.5% and 6% year-over-year, respectively. However, we note that, although these prints are the largest since 1982 and, thus, do worry market participants,

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Europe: 6 reasons for higher inflation and faster growth

Europe: 6 reasons for higher inflation and faster growth

🕔10:17, 18.Feb 2022

Against the spectre of soaring energy prices, labour shortages and supply chain constraints, a question that has arisen in the US has landed firmly on European shores: will inflation continue to rise and how persistent will it be? The prevailing

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Rising rates: what to know, what to do

Rising rates: what to know, what to do

🕔15:26, 17.Feb 2022

January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth

Read Full Article
Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary – January 2022

🕔15:47, 15.Feb 2022

Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around

Read Full Article
Why invest in EM local currency debt?

Why invest in EM local currency debt?

🕔10:05, 14.Feb 2022

Disappointing US dollar bond returns in EM local currency debt has led to a decline in flows into the asset class over the past decade. In this paper, we discuss the key reasons to invest in EM local currency debt, some of the factors behind the recent weakness in the asset class returns and prospects for the asset class going forward. 

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2022 US Macro Outlook

2022 US Macro Outlook

🕔08:38, 11.Feb 2022

The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what

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Why is gold misbehaving?

Why is gold misbehaving?

🕔16:48, 8.Feb 2022

Gold has done amazingly well, considering the rise in US treasury yields. Geopolitical tensions and fears of inflation may be helping. But we suspect that without US recession it has further …

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Let the wild rumpus begin

Let the wild rumpus begin

🕔10:44, 1.Feb 2022

In a bubble, no one wants to hear the bear case. It is the worst kind of party-pooping. For bubbles, especially superbubbles where we are now, are often the most exhilarating financial experiences of a lifetime. I participated in a

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Year 3 and counting…

Year 3 and counting…

🕔11:40, 25.Jan 2022

Inflation has returned decisively onto the global economic scene. In the United States, headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) reached close to 7% in November, the highest in nearly 40 years; in the euro area it reached close to 5%, the

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US Fixed Income Outlook 2022

US Fixed Income Outlook 2022

🕔14:36, 21.Jan 2022

Playing second fiddle. That’s how the 2022 economic forecasts feel when compared to 2021. For ’22, we see real growth running about 4%, or two times trend. That’s typically great performance, but when you’re coming off a phenomenal growth year

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What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

🕔11:48, 22.Dec 2021

I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at

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US commercial real estate strong performance expected into 2022

US commercial real estate strong performance expected into 2022

🕔10:26, 15.Dec 2021

US CRE Market Insights: Commercial real estate (CRE) investment performance for US properties soared in the third quarter as unlevered total return reported by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) registered 12.1% for the four quarters ending

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Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

🕔09:34, 14.Dec 2021

Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.

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Swapshop.

Swapshop.

🕔10:22, 1.Dec 2021

Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will

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