The recessionary cloud is about to lift

The recessionary cloud is about to lift

🕔17:35, 11.dec 2019

The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that we could not see in the data

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U.S. Inflation: The Undercurrents of Seemingly Calm Inflation

U.S. Inflation: The Undercurrents of Seemingly Calm Inflation

🕔15:45, 11.dec 2019

Competing dynamics have kept U.S. inflation largely stable, but the balance may be shifting After the turbulence of the 1970s and early 1980s, U.S. inflation entered a remarkably stable period that has persisted for the past three decades. As Figure

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Trade conflict US/China, elections in the UK, monetary policy decisions of the US Fed and the ECB

Trade conflict US/China, elections in the UK, monetary policy decisions of the US Fed and the ECB

🕔09:45, 9.dec 2019

Week Ahead  Trade agreement before December 15? The most important event for the global markets next week will be the decision on further US tariffs on Chinese imports from December 15. This will affect annual imports of about USD 150bn;

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Taking stock of our 2019 views

Taking stock of our 2019 views

🕔13:10, 4.dec 2019

Weekly commentary • We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. • We see growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next 6

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Trade war uncertainty resurfaces

Trade war uncertainty resurfaces

🕔11:01, 4.dec 2019

Market flash Hong Kong’s pro- democracy party won 85% of the seats in the local elections, a massive increase on the 25% seen in 2015. A few days later, Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Rights and Democracy Act into

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Limbo for markets will not last forever

Limbo for markets will not last forever

🕔18:12, 3.dec 2019

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained

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Recession Risk Judged To Be Moderate

Recession Risk Judged To Be Moderate

🕔10:05, 29.nov 2019

A moderation of NIPA corporate profits may well imply lower GDP growth in 2020. However, we do not expect a recession in the next twelve months. The Fed should stay neutral into 2020; we expect its communication to remain slightly

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Don’t Give Up on Non-US Equities

Don’t Give Up on Non-US Equities

🕔14:29, 28.nov 2019

In brief: Investors are increasingly frustrated after years of non-US equity underperformance While US fundamentals appear to be superior, a closer look suggests the gap may be narrower than it seems With financial alchemy potentially reaching its limits, true fundamentals

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US leveraged loans – behind the scenes

US leveraged loans – behind the scenes

🕔15:33, 26.nov 2019

 The US leveraged loan market has proven to be, until recently, resilient, despite facing a challenging environment over the past few years. Outflows from the retail component of the US leveraged loan market have been incessant for the past year,

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The Future Means Business – The investment implications of transformative new corporate models

The Future Means Business – The investment implications of transformative new corporate models

🕔18:26, 25.nov 2019

The modern firm is one of society’s most powerful inventions, with more than 50% of economic transactions taking place internally within firms rather than through market mechanisms. The decisions made by firms are major drivers of value creation and destruction

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The Delicate Art Of Profit Allocation

The Delicate Art Of Profit Allocation

🕔16:29, 21.nov 2019

The coming months will bring with them a change in context. In addition to the five major sources of uncertainty that have rocked the market since the beginning of the year, there is now a new feature in the landscape:

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Monthly Investment Outlook – Mind the Gap

Monthly Investment Outlook – Mind the Gap

🕔18:29, 18.nov 2019

October 2019 US and ECB communications revealed divided opinions on the prospect for more aggressive stimulus looking ahead despite stress in US money markets. As a result, investors may face a ‘gap’ between limited monetary policy support and emerging fiscal

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SDGs: Challenge and opportunity

SDGs: Challenge and opportunity

🕔10:01, 18.nov 2019

SDGs: Challenge and opportunity by Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele With markets focused on the back-and-forth in US-China trade negotiations it's easy to forget that, behind the headlines, there are other longer-term challenges that we face as a society.

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Trade and Tariff Uncertainty: A Bottom-Up Perspective on Managing Macro Headwinds

Trade and Tariff Uncertainty: A Bottom-Up Perspective on Managing Macro Headwinds

🕔16:35, 13.nov 2019

US and China trade-related uncertainties and the associated financial risks are unlikely to be resolved soon. A company's ability to weather the tariff-related headwinds of rising costs, compressing margins and the potential loss of market share depends on its ability

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: Deescalation in trade conflict, Europe’s growth nevertheless weak

: Deescalation in trade conflict, Europe’s growth nevertheless weak

🕔07:50, 12.nov 2019

Week Ahead  Settlement of trade disputes within reach? The stock and bond markets seem to be increasingly optimistic that one day the specter of trade conflicts will come to an end. China and the United States have agreed in recent

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Five U.S. Dollar Themes to Watch

Five U.S. Dollar Themes to Watch

🕔18:09, 4.nov 2019

The currency has remained resilient despite the slowing U.S. economy Interest rate cuts are usually associated with currency depreciation, but this is not always the case with the U.S. dollar. A key factor in determining the value of the dollar

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How Well Do Americans Understand Money?

How Well Do Americans Understand Money?

🕔17:56, 30.okt 2019

Who controls our money? The developed world depends on money in one form or another. We pay bills, put food on the table, and add to the quality of our life with it. But how well does the average person

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Buybacks – A multi-perspective review and thoughts on best practices for company buyback policies

Buybacks – A multi-perspective review and thoughts on best practices for company buyback policies

🕔14:46, 30.okt 2019

US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches. Given the impact of the 2018 tax cuts and the upcoming 2020 US Presidential election

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Buybacks – A Multi-Perspective Review And Thoughts On Best Practices For Company Buyback Policies

Buybacks – A Multi-Perspective Review And Thoughts On Best Practices For Company Buyback Policies

🕔12:37, 30.okt 2019

US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches. Given the impact of the 2018 tax cuts and the upcoming 2020 US Presidential election

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CFA – Workshop: The role of energy and metals in an investment portfolio AMSTERDAM

🕔16:30, 29.okt 2019

Join CFA Sociey VBA Netherlands and experts from CME Group for an in-depth workshop on: The role of energy and metals in an investment portfolio The outlook on risk and return of commodity markets can form the basis of portfolio construction.

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The real story behind the cmbx.6 debunking the next “big short”

The real story behind the cmbx.6 debunking the next “big short”

🕔15:29, 29.okt 2019

 IN THIS PAPER: The CMBX.6 has become such a popular short by speculators placing bets on mall closings that it has been profiled in the media as the next “big short.” It’s true that as many as a third of

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Labor force participation: Is the labor market too hot, too cold, or just right?

Labor force participation: Is the labor market too hot, too cold, or just right?

🕔15:51, 28.okt 2019

Risk is a thorny word. In its simplest form, it means exposure to danger, but in an organizational or business context, it takes on a much more complex definition. 

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Fading Optimism On Trade

Fading Optimism On Trade

🕔13:12, 25.okt 2019

Global markets went on a rollercoaster ride in the past two weeks amid shifting developments in the U.S.-China trade dispute. As negotiators headed into the 13th round of trade talks in Washington on October 10 and 11, stocks sold off

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Geopolitics’ clout on markets persists

Geopolitics’ clout on markets persists

🕔09:10, 25.okt 2019

A perceived de-escalation in U.S.-China tensions and Brexit has driven up risk assets, yet we see geopolitical risks staying at elevated levels. Signs that weakness caused by the protectionist push is spreading beyond manufacturing have cast a shadow on the

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Four charts that show why “old tech” might surprise income investors

Four charts that show why “old tech” might surprise income investors

🕔09:49, 24.okt 2019

For decades, dividends have largely been associated with companies from more mature areas of the market such as utilities or telecommunications. Meanwhile, technology has long remained an afterthought. But what happens when tech grows up? Areas of the sector are

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Zoek

Twitter

Learn why PM Mike Della Vedova says the diversification benefits of a global high yield portfolio may involve less risk than a more traditional, U.S.-focused high yield strategy. https://t.co/g8dneU9G6N

Bob Homan of @INGnl_IO, keynote speaker at the @AlphaResearchNL conference #LowerforLonger last week: “Analysts are often too enthusiastic. They should lower their expectations.” #2020outlook

Our conference #UBPInvestmentOutlook had a full house in London last week! Our experts shared their 2020 outlook for the global economy and more specifically for the UK. Thank you all for coming!

Zal zijn laatste woorden aan mij nooit vergeten. Over woorden gesproken: toen ik Volcker de eerste keer ontmoette, was zijn eerste vraag:"Hoe is het met Andre Szász?" Ik had 15 minuten met hem. Het werd 1,5 uur! Er was een klik. RIP

De Asset Allocatie Awards komen er weer aan! Nominaties komen deze week, winnaars op 4 februari 2020... Hier een sfeer inpressie van vorig jaar -> https://t.co/c36HWpyGVx

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