On recent market volatility

On recent market volatility

🕔17:34, 16.aug 2019

Financial market volatility has risen in August. This has come amid the ongoing US-China trade conflict (along with other geopolitical risks), and some weak economic data releases. Risk assets such as equities have sold off, while safe-haven assets have rallied

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Think U.S. Cities, Trends and tactics Q3 2019 outlook

Think U.S. Cities, Trends and tactics Q3 2019 outlook

🕔17:28, 16.aug 2019

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1% during Q1 2019 and is on track to grow around 2.9% in Q2 2019.1 We expect GDP growth to slow in the 2nd half of 2019 as the effects of

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Why USD corporate bonds are set to attract international investors

Why USD corporate bonds are set to attract international investors

🕔13:46, 16.aug 2019

It is all relative in the global capital markets. Over the last year or so, the high currency-hedging cost has made US dollar corporate bonds less attractive for international investors despite the relatively high level of US yields. This is

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US-China trade tensions escalate

US-China trade tensions escalate

🕔19:51, 13.aug 2019

On Thursday 1 August, US President Trump unexpectedly announced a plan to move forward with an additional 10% tariff on USD300bn worth of imported Chinese goods. The move is in addition to the USD250bn of Chinese products already subject to

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Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

🕔14:28, 13.aug 2019

The plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, down 35 basis points over the past two weeks, indicates growing investor unease about the resilience of the economy to seemingly unrelenting policy shocks. Those concerns are not irrational. Although we have argued on

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US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

🕔13:04, 13.aug 2019

Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in

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Policy pivot confirmed; underpins risk assets

Policy pivot confirmed; underpins risk assets

🕔14:26, 7.aug 2019

Weekly Commentary Key points 1 We see the dovish pivot by global central banks supporting the economic expansion and risk assets, with rising protectionism the key risk.b 2 We see a wider range of Brexit outcomes—including no-deal, a snap election

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Finding Value in US Financials

Finding Value in US Financials

🕔13:27, 7.aug 2019

Strategy Espresso Theme of the week: Finding Value in US Financials  What Rate Cut? On the day the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since 2008, the US Financials sector outperformed the S&P 500 despite what is traditionally assumed as a negative

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FOMC cut interest rates, but markets wanted more

FOMC cut interest rates, but markets wanted more

🕔10:40, 2.aug 2019

As expected, the US Fed's interest rate decision-making body (FOMC) lowered the range of its key interest rate by 25 basis points to between 2% and 2.25%. The assessment of the economy has not changed significantly. The labor market and

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The Tug-Of-War Between Earnings Per Share And P/Es

The Tug-Of-War Between Earnings Per Share And P/Es

🕔20:00, 30.jul 2019

A tug-of-war is currently going on in equity markets, between deteriorating earnings fundamentals on one side and expanding valuations—what investors are willing to pay for those earnings—on the other. For the time being, valuations are winning and markets are grinding

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What will FOMC tell markets?

What will FOMC tell markets?

🕔11:45, 29.jul 2019

Next week's meeting of the Federal Reserve's interest rate setting body (FOMC) will be the main focus of markets. In line with the majority of market participants, we expect a rate cut of 25 basis points. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's

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Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

🕔12:50, 26.jul 2019

US economic vulnerability in need of modest support The US economy has unsurprisingly kept slowing down following 2018’s fiscal-fuelled 12-year record-high growth. With US/China trade tensions easing a notch at the Osaka G20 Summit in late June, monthly “hard” data

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US, China firm, Europe feeble

US, China firm, Europe feeble

🕔15:03, 24.jul 2019

Macro Weekly Recent US economic data paints a picture of an economy that is unlikely to fall into recession any time soon. The current expansion is easily going to be the longest on record (records going back to the second

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The Secular Lens: Assessing the Global Outlook and Potential Disruptions

The Secular Lens: Assessing the Global Outlook and Potential Disruptions

🕔11:38, 17.jul 2019

Executive Summary Over the secular (three- to five-year) horizon, growth in China will likely slow somewhat, and we expect some form of resolution of the current U.S.– China trade conflict. Longer-term, though, tensions will remain, as the two nations compete

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US labor market report surprises markets

US labor market report surprises markets

🕔04:02, 6.jul 2019

Week Ahead The US labor market data for June was better than expected. 224,000 new jobs were created, well above market expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly, from 3.6% to 3.7%. The market had expected this figure to

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What’s up with inflation?

What’s up with inflation?

🕔13:02, 5.jul 2019

US Watch Core inflation continues to disappoint to the downside, despite an apparently tight labour market While some transitory factors are at work, and base effects should push core PCE back near the Fed’s 2% target by year-end…

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FOMC June Meeting

FOMC June Meeting

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

The Federal Reserve left policy unchanged The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left the target range for the fed funds rate at 2.25-2.50% at its June meeting; the market had been pricing a 20-25% chance of a rate cut. One of

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What’s more Intimidating? Fed Minutes or a President’s Tweet?

What’s more Intimidating? Fed Minutes or a President’s Tweet?

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

Fixed Income Perspectives President Trump threw monkey wrenches into the global financial markets by suddenly escalating trade frictions with China, and then unexpectedly weaponizing tariffs against Mexico. As the hyenas advanced, the lion roared: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that

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The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market

The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

The U.S. labor market has shown sustained strength in the years since the global financial crisis. In assessing this performance, however, it is also important to consider the quality of the jobs that have been created. Have the new jobs

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G20 US/China talks – a potential juncture for the global economy

G20 US/China talks – a potential juncture for the global economy

🕔17:59, 24.jun 2019

The US remains the centre of attention Last week President Donald Trump made an unprecedented intervention, following the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, where he accused it of currency manipulation, as the value of the dollar fell against the

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Currently no majority in FOMC in favor of interest rate cut

Currently no majority in FOMC in favor of interest rate cut

🕔04:03, 21.jun 2019

As had been widely expected, the FOMC, the US Fed's monetary policy decision-making body, left key interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting. In the statement, the FOMC confirmed the panel's baseline scenario of sustained economic growth, a strong labor market

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Cross Asset Investment Strategy June

Cross Asset Investment Strategy June

🕔10:14, 15.jun 2019

Cio views Increased risk requires a cautious attitude This month’s topic: the 2020 us presidential election: another close race?

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Week Ahead | Major Markets | Eurozone

Week Ahead | Major Markets | Eurozone

🕔04:04, 15.jun 2019

The outcome of the FOMC's upcoming meeting is uncertain and will therefor receive a lot of attention. The crucial question will be how the Federal Reserve will react to the escalation of the trade war with China and thus to

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The US-China Trade Conflict: How Long Will This Keep Going On?

The US-China Trade Conflict: How Long Will This Keep Going On?

🕔11:03, 11.jun 2019

Investment Strategy Insights Most emerging countries are economically fragile when entering the World Trade Organization (WTO) and are granted leniencies not available to developed countries. As China grew within the WTO to an economic superpower, it became clear that the

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Nieuwe zet in handelsconflict

Nieuwe zet in handelsconflict

🕔15:04, 8.jun 2019

Politieke risico’s domineren Geopolitieke risico’s eisten de afgelopen maanden weer een hoofdrol op. Het handelsconflict tussen de Verenigde Staten en China escaleerde, terwijl een oplossing juist binnen handbereik leek. Het geschil tussen beide landen draait om meer dan handel alleen.

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