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Tag "weekly"

What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

🕔11:48, 22.Dec 2021

I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at

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Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

🕔09:34, 14.Dec 2021

Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.

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How to dismantle a conglomerate.

How to dismantle a conglomerate.

🕔14:58, 10.Dec 2021

If you are looking for market volatility to spice up your week then core government bond markets would be a good place to start. After last weeks ‘communication breakdown’ between central banks and investors, and more dovish policy response, that

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It’s been a turbulent November.

It’s been a turbulent November.

🕔16:56, 7.Dec 2021

Market updates: The week saw an increase of cases of the newly identified Omicron variant of Covid-19 observed in South Africa and elsewhere. Though the week cases have been seen across Europe, Asia and in the US, causing fears of

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Swapshop.

Swapshop.

🕔10:22, 1.Dec 2021

Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will

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UK payrolls point to smooth ending of furlough scheme

UK payrolls point to smooth ending of furlough scheme

🕔10:12, 30.Nov 2021

Uncertainty surrounding the effect of the end of the UK furlough scheme on unemployment had been top of the Bank of England’s (BoE) list of economic concerns, but last week’s jobs data provided reasons to be optimistic on this front.

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Liftoff? EM has already taken off

Liftoff? EM has already taken off

🕔14:12, 29.Nov 2021

As U.S. inflation is hitting three-decade highs, market talk has been all about “liftoff:” When will the Federal Reserve and others start raising their policy rates? This is old news in emerging markets (EMs), where many countries have already raised

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European markets have been strong

European markets have been strong

🕔13:54, 24.Nov 2021

Market updates: At the start of the week, President Biden signed into law the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. He is also set to announce a new US Federal Reserve Chief, which is expected to be either incumbent Jerome Powell or

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Communication breakdown.

Communication breakdown.

🕔14:21, 16.Nov 2021

Bond markets, which have been under considerable pressure recently, saw a very sharp turnaround last week as the US Federal Reserve did no more than expected in the US, while the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, and the European

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The winner takes it all.

The winner takes it all.

🕔10:42, 9.Nov 2021

US equities printed a new high as we end October while bonds remain mired in volatility with yields near their highs for the last 12 months – see chart of the week. Meanwhile, risk markets in fixed income are locked

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A lopsided energy transition

A lopsided energy transition

🕔12:02, 8.Nov 2021

Weekly commentary: Surging natural gas and coal prices amid a powerful economic restart have exposed a lopsided transition toward low-carbon power. We still see an orderly transition in the medium term – but with bumps on the way that could

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Strong week for global equities

Strong week for global equities

🕔15:38, 28.Oct 2021

Weekly Economic Perspectives:  The Fed is poised to taper asset purchases imminently. Although language in the September meeting minutes maintained some optionality between mid-November and mid-December as start points, we suspect the earlier timeline is more likely. There really is

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A farewell to negative yields?

A farewell to negative yields?

🕔11:30, 8.Oct 2021

In Credit: US bond yields have stabilsed this quarter after the material sell-off in the first quarter. It has been a different story for yields in Europe, however, which have trended higher. This reflects a heavy supply schedule and speculation

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Jolly green giant Gilt.

Jolly green giant Gilt.

🕔11:05, 5.Oct 2021

The ‘excitement’ of an FOMC meeting, shenanigans at Evergrande, revised forecasts from the OECD and the German general election led to a rise in yields last week (see chart of the week). The US Federal Reserve presented a more hawkish

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Fed taper looks likely, boosting Treasury yields

Fed taper looks likely, boosting Treasury yields

🕔14:50, 4.Oct 2021

U.S. Treasury yields closed higher last week, led by longer maturities. After starting the week lower due to Chinese market fears, rates jumped sharply on Thursday to finish the week about eight basis points  …

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When a taper is not a taper.

When a taper is not a taper.

🕔12:58, 21.Sep 2021

Core government bond markets ended the week with a better tone, even as the European Central Bank announced its intentions to modestly reduce asset purchases, and as the ECB increased forecasts for economic growth and for inflation. The ECB notched

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Falling into Fall.

Falling into Fall.

🕔16:01, 14.Sep 2021

Government bond yields generally moved higher last week; the spectre of a withdrawal of ultraeasy policy conditions remains front and centre of attention. Indeed, we will hear more on this subject perhaps this week from Europe when the European Central

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Dimly aware of a certain unease in the air

Dimly aware of a certain unease in the air

🕔15:20, 30.Aug 2021

We borrowed a line from a Pink Floyd song for this week’s title, which seemed to sum up the mood in markets last week. The rise in cases of the delta variant of Covid brings fears of a pause in

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The arrival of long expected inflation.

The arrival of long expected inflation.

🕔13:02, 20.Aug 2021

In Credit: Inflation had long been expected to rise – and rise it has! Data released from the US and UK last week showed a jump in prices that exceeded (increased) expectations by some margin. Starting in the US, Consumer

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Searching for direction.

Searching for direction.

🕔11:45, 17.Aug 2021

In Credit: Government bonds seem to be struggling for direction amid a summer lull and after a period of strong performance. US 10-year yields have fallen from around 1.75% at the end of March 2021 to around 1.29% at the

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The threat from inflation

The threat from inflation

🕔16:30, 23.Jul 2021

Weekly investment update: Another month, another US inflation report beating market expectations. Headline year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation has gone from 1.1% last November to 4.9% in May. Even though economists knew that base effects meant the rate of

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‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

🕔17:01, 21.Jun 2021

Quarter one of this year was a miserable experience for the bond market. There was just too much ‘good news’ flowing around the system to contain bond yields. The Biden fiscal push, the successful rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and, of

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Steady as she goes…

Steady as she goes…

🕔11:54, 14.Jun 2021

In credit: We saw some key economic data last week, in what felt like a seasonal lull for a number of European countries given the late May bank holiday and a week of school holidays. In the UK, sterling hit

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Can The Fed Stay Patient?

Can The Fed Stay Patient?

🕔17:41, 19.May 2021

Weekly Economic Commentary:  I watched the film “Apollo 13” again recently. For those too young to remember, a mission to the moon that launched 50 years ago almost ended in disaster; working feverishly, ground control was able to bring the

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‘Brass in pocket’

‘Brass in pocket’

🕔12:58, 19.May 2021

In Credit: The upward trend of rising inflation expectations continues and is now at 2.5% at the 10-year point of the curve and 2.8% for two years. The US non-farm payroll / employment sector report released last Friday revealed that

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Significant uncertainty in US inflation forecasts

Significant uncertainty in US inflation forecasts

🕔10:01, 19.May 2021

The Weekly Brief: The rise in US economic growth and inflation has been well flagged by markets and economists but uncertainty remains as to the persistence of these pickups. A successful vaccine rollout is enabling a reopening of the economy

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Turning up the temperature

Turning up the temperature

🕔09:31, 12.May 2021

Weekly investment update: The risk of the US economy overheating was highlighted months ago, but it was difficult to assess whether the market actually believed it was possible. Recent comments by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have put the topic

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Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines

Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines

🕔16:30, 5.May 2021

The Weekly Brief: Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines, following President Biden’s recent pledge to cut US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in half by 2030. In total, 58 countries, representing 54% of global GHG emissions, have now communicated a

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Podcast: Why invest in inclusive growth?

Podcast: Why invest in inclusive growth?

🕔10:31, 4.May 2021

Market weekly: Being open to an inclusive growth approach goes hand in hand with a focus on long-term performance and contributes to a better climate for doing business and investment. As investment specialist Ramon Esteruelas and ESG research analyst Delphine

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Calm after a storm.

Calm after a storm.

🕔15:28, 16.Apr 2021

There has been a degree more stability or calm in core government markets over the last couple of weeks. This comes after a very difficult start to the year, especially in the US.

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Commodities rewired

Commodities rewired

🕔14:03, 15.Apr 2021

Oil and industrial metals have rallied since late-2020 on expectations for a swift economic restart, sparking talk of a new commodity “supercycle.” We see a more nuanced outlook – with a divergence across different commodities. The lift for oil from the economic restart is likely to be transitory, while some metals may benefit …

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Markets rally on strong data

Markets rally on strong data

🕔11:38, 12.Apr 2021

Strong economic data over the last week in the US, Europe and Asia appears to be confirming the perception among investors that a cyclical recovery is well established. As a result, valuations of risk assets have risen on the view that the pandemic will be overcome this year.

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Reflation trade on hold

Reflation trade on hold

🕔10:52, 6.Apr 2021

Valuations of risk assets have marked a pause in the face of a number of headwinds. In our view, valuations remain underpinned by ample central bank liquidity and the prospect, in the US, of further fiscal stimulus.

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A pause in the rise

A pause in the rise

🕔12:54, 30.Mar 2021

The sell-off in US Treasury bonds reversed over the last week with the 10-year bond yield dropping from its intraday high of 1.75% on 18 March. The decline was driven principally by falling real yields as inflation expectations were mostly stable. There was also a reversal in the recent outperformance of value stocks relative to growth stocks.

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A lot of questions, not many answers

A lot of questions, not many answers

🕔10:45, 23.Mar 2021

Bad news on the health front; volatile economic data; hopes that the US national 4th of July holiday can be celebrated with a BBQ; and further lockdowns, in place or imminent, in Europe. This odd concoction on the anniversary of the Great Lockdown did not keep …

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Back to work

Back to work

🕔14:48, 19.Mar 2021

As mentioned previously, this trend was borne out of rising inflation expectations and augmented by a nudge higher in real rates. If this latter rate is the key discount rate for risk markets such as equities, it helps explains why this market has been …

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Distinguishing between short and long-term issues

Distinguishing between short and long-term issues

🕔11:50, 16.Mar 2021

Distinguishing between short and long-term issues Weekly investment update Keeping a weekly column like this one going brings home the sense of immediacy that frequently grips financial markets and that can fuel short-term spikes or dips as we have seen

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Downgrading government bonds

Downgrading government bonds

🕔16:28, 25.Feb 2021

Downgrading government bonds  Weekly commentary We broaden our tactical pro-risk stance in light of major developments since the publication of our 2021 outlook in December: the vaccine rollout and up to $2.8 trillion of additional U.S. fiscal spending this year.

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Reflating a bubble

Reflating a bubble

🕔11:18, 19.Feb 2021

It was Presidents Day in the US on 15 February and we imagine ex-President Trump will be celebrating more than most after being acquitted in his second impeachment vote. There was, however, less to celebrate in government bond land.

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Student Debt: From Forbearance to Forgiveness

Student Debt: From Forbearance to Forgiveness

🕔12:35, 18.Feb 2021

When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.” This time-tested maxim can work well for finding a path out of personal debt. Small behavioral changes can allow people to stop running up credit accounts and start paying them down. But when the “hole” represents …

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Welcome back Ms Yellen!

Welcome back Ms Yellen!

🕔15:48, 26.Jan 2021

Recent news about the COVID-19 pandemic has been worrying, with more contagious strains of the virus spreading internationally, rising contamination rates, and healthcare systems on the verge of being overwhelmed, particularly in the UK and the US.

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In Credit – All change, all change.

In Credit – All change, all change.

🕔10:04, 22.Jan 2021

It is Martin Luther King Day today and on 20 January Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the 47th and oldest ever President of the United States. There was a degree of stabilisation in rates markets last week after the inflation fears led a sell off. The benchmark 10-year US government …

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The Weekly Brief

The Weekly Brief

🕔08:07, 16.Dec 2020

Monetary and fiscal coordination has supported economic activity in 2020. As we discuss in our Investment Outlook 2021: Bridge over troubled waters, governments and central banks have proved pivotal in helping economies to bridge the gap caused by the virus.

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Dollar Depreciation Helps CTAs

Dollar Depreciation Helps CTAs

🕔11:30, 30.Nov 2020

The Weekly Brief Since the U.S. presidential election on November 3 th, the USD has started a descent that may have legs under the new administration. The easing of trade tensions and an accommodative policy mix could put additional pressure

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Highlights of last week: Central banks, Decarbonization and Inflation

Highlights of last week: Central banks, Decarbonization and Inflation

🕔16:40, 24.Nov 2020

#47 Tomorrow our event calendar is filled with five webinars! If you have spare time tomorrow, don’t miss out on an interesting session. Furthermore, next week December starts and this month has lots of interesting webinars as well. For example,

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Stocks are likely to remain in a trading range for now

Stocks are likely to remain in a trading range for now

🕔11:11, 31.Oct 2020

Weekly Investment Commentary Stocks snapped a three-week winning streak last week, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 0.5%. The U.S. elections continued to dominate the headlines, with polls showing an increasing likelihood of a Biden victory and Democratic sweep of

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Stocks are likely to remain in a trading range for now

Stocks are likely to remain in a trading range for now

🕔07:50, 30.Oct 2020

Weekly Investment Commentary Stocks snapped a three-week winning streak last week, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 0.5%. The U.S. elections continued to dominate the headlines, with polls showing an increasing likelihood of a Biden victory and Democratic sweep of

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The Consequences Of Closed Borders

The Consequences Of Closed Borders

🕔09:48, 28.Oct 2020

Weekly Economic Commentary Eleven years ago, I had the pleasure of witnessing my wife’s naturalization ceremony. The presiding judge opened with a memorable comment: “Swearing in new citizens is the only time everyone leaves the courtroom happy.” Everyone present nodded.

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Carbon neutrality is achievable by 2050 (Podcast)

Carbon neutrality is achievable by 2050 (Podcast)

🕔08:30, 21.Oct 2020

Market Weekly The EU’s new targets for emissions reductions are realistic and achievable and should lift the price of CO2, encouraging more emitters to switch to doing business in a more environmentally friendly way. In this podcast, chief sustainability strategist

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Our thoughts on the rally in momentum stocks

Our thoughts on the rally in momentum stocks

🕔11:29, 20.Oct 2020

The weekly brief Momentum is a strategy which buys stocks trending higher and sells stocks on a downtrend within an index. It is systematic and has no considerations for earnings, valuation, or other fundamental metrics such as dividends. Historically, it

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