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Cautious Expectations for Trade Negotiations

Cautious Expectations for Trade Negotiations

🕔08:03, 21.okt 2019

We have relatively cautious expectations for this week’s U.S./China trade negotiations. A potential truce or de-escalation in the trade war is a “good news” card for President Trump, and he could wait for additional political developments over the next six

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A matter of time

A matter of time

🕔07:45, 18.okt 2019

As demand for duration sends US Treasury yields down towards 1.50%, we look at the factors that could potentially push rates through this key psychological level.

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Talking Points – Weekly Highlights

Talking Points – Weekly Highlights

🕔13:59, 17.okt 2019

Broad market volatility spilled into the loan market this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) lost -0.41% for the five business days ended Oct. 10, led lower by a 51 basis points reduction in the Index bid

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Market Flash: After The Last Week’s Drop Stocks Rebounded

Market Flash: After The Last Week’s Drop Stocks Rebounded

🕔10:41, 17.okt 2019

Equity markets rebounded this week while bonds experienced a correction. Investors continue to attempt to gauge the reality of the deterioration in global manufacturing activity and the impact of the countermeasures in the form of monetary and fiscal support. Short-term

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔08:39, 17.okt 2019

The fourth-quarter holiday seasons have expanded to unacceptable lengths. I noticed Halloween candy for sale in August, Thanksgiving cards out in September, and Christmas decorations on the shelves…virtually year-round. I realize the commercial aspects of these occasions have taken on

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Below the waterline.

Below the waterline.

🕔07:32, 17.okt 2019 Lees het volledige artikel
Credit Markets Weekly

Credit Markets Weekly

🕔07:58, 14.okt 2019

Bonds continue to be sought after, despite ever longer maturities sporting negative yields. In addition to economic uncertainties caused by the trade war and Brexit, liquidity shortages in US repo markets requiring supportive interventions by the Fed have recently unnerved

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Market Flash – The stock market plunges: is it a feeling of déjà vu?

Market Flash – The stock market plunges: is it a feeling of déjà vu?

🕔10:50, 10.okt 2019

Apart from a technical lift on the last day of the third quarter, markets retreated as a fresh wave of bad political and economic news arrived. Both industrial and services ISM data fell much more than consensus expectations. Manufacturing ISM

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔09:45, 10.okt 2019

Argentina and the IMF: A Bad Case of Déjà Vu Congressional Distractions Will Limit U.S. Economic Policy Capital Flows Get Drawn Into the Trade War

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Why earnings season matters

Why earnings season matters

🕔16:56, 9.okt 2019

We see third-quarter earnings season offering some limited support to U.S. stocks in the near term, as a growth rebound is months away. Signs of weakening economic activity beyond the manufacturing sector have revived concerns about the growth backdrop. U.S.-China

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PessimISM…

PessimISM…

🕔16:29, 8.okt 2019

Core government bond yields were lower last week and are back to close to the recent lows. They were pushed along this path by lower manufacturing sentiment indices. Specifically, the release of PMI data in the US reinforced the idea

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Market Flash: The Geopolitical Context Remains Uncertain

Market Flash: The Geopolitical Context Remains Uncertain

🕔13:49, 3.okt 2019

Once again, markets danced to the tune of developments in US politics and the trade war. The Democrats started a pre-impeachment procedure against Donald Trump. Washington is still looking for a broad agreement with Beijing, one that goes beyond simply

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‘Gold is money. Everything else is credit.’

‘Gold is money. Everything else is credit.’

🕔17:44, 2.okt 2019

Government bonds enjoyed another strong week with yields lower in the key areas. The release of PMI data in Europe offered little in the way of good news. It showed that the manufacturing downturn has taken another leg lower, driven

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A Concentrated, Global Easing Cycle; U.S. Repo Stress

A Concentrated, Global Easing Cycle; U.S. Repo Stress

🕔08:32, 27.sep 2019

Weekly view from the desk As we continue assessing global oil market conditions, key factors we’re monitoring include the restoration of the Saudi Aramco facilities’ capacity vs. actual production, the likelihood that a geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in crude

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CEE Market Insights

CEE Market Insights

🕔09:27, 24.sep 2019

Currencies fell last week in the region, but the stronger the yield declines of bond markets, the more robust the weakening in the currency that took place. We saw that regional markets reacted not much to international market developments (Saudi

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Higher yields, inflation and energy prices

Higher yields, inflation and energy prices

🕔11:43, 20.sep 2019

Macro / government bonds Core bond yields were meaningfully higher and yield curves steeper last week in the face of better economic data and higher inflation in the US and some more conciliatory action between the US and China with

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ECB zet de geldkraan open

ECB zet de geldkraan open

🕔11:54, 18.sep 2019

Alle ogen waren afgelopen week gericht op de vergadering van de ECB. ECB-voorzitter Mario Draghi stelde niet teleur met de aankondiging van een hele reeks aan verruimende maatregelen. Conform verwachting werd de depositorente verder verlaagd. Ook werd het opnieuw opstarten

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Lower growth, higher inflation

Lower growth, higher inflation

🕔10:50, 18.sep 2019

Markets breathed a sigh of relief last week on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. We see ongoing policy support, the absence of obvious financial system vulnerabilities and resilient consumer spending helping extend the U.S. economic expansion. Yet trade tensions

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Market Flash: The Spirit Of Compromise Returns

Market Flash: The Spirit Of Compromise Returns

🕔16:55, 17.sep 2019

US-China tensions eased further over the week and Beijing exempted US products from import duties only a few days before both sides were due to meet for talks. China might even resume importing US agricultural products like soya. Meanwhile, over

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Market Flash: A Whiff Of Optimism Lifts Markets

Market Flash: A Whiff Of Optimism Lifts Markets

🕔07:48, 13.sep 2019

Equity markets finally rebounded on reduced tensions in Hong Kong, mounting obstacles in Boris Johnson’s way towards a no-deal Brexit and news that US-China talks were to resume. Economic data remained mixed between upbeat consumer services and fears of an

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UK political upheaval: market implications

UK political upheaval: market implications

🕔15:31, 12.sep 2019

We identified geopolitical risk as the key market driver in the second half of 2019 in our midyear investment outlook. The UK is the latest example, where deep divisions over a potential Brexit have unsettled the political landscape, paving the

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US payrolls signal easing, UK election seems inevitable and ECB between a rock and a hard place

US payrolls signal easing, UK election seems inevitable and ECB between a rock and a hard place

🕔14:02, 12.sep 2019

A mixed batch of numbers from the latest US payrolls report last week left our outlook as expecting another easing in the US Fed Funds Rates in next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Headline payrolls growth slowed to 130,000

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Weekly Market Update: Lift to Global Equities, European Easing Expected

Weekly Market Update: Lift to Global Equities, European Easing Expected

🕔12:45, 11.sep 2019

Global equities began last week on poor footing following weak manufacturing data and more tariffs including the U.S. implementing 15% tariffs on about $125 billion of Chinese goods and China issuing 5%-10% tariffs on some U.S. imports including crude oil

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How to play defense today

How to play defense today

🕔11:42, 9.sep 2019

The US president has remained mercurial on the issue of trade. Having said at the G7 summit that he regretted not being harder on China, President Trump switched towards optimism, saying China wanted "to make a deal very badly." More

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Weekly Market Update: Inverted Yield Curve, New Tariffs this Week

Weekly Market Update: Inverted Yield Curve, New Tariffs this Week

🕔08:02, 6.sep 2019

The U.S. yield curve inverted last Tuesday, raising worries of recession, while the trade war escalates this week as China and the U.S. exchange taris. Despite increased concerns on the U.S. yield curve, global equities gained 2.0% last week with

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Asset Allocation Consensus September

Twitter

The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).

Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen

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