EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows
Weekly as of 7 October 2022: ETFs posted net inflows of $1.4bn last week. Fixed Income captured $1.2bn, while Equity enjoyed $332mn of …
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EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows
Weekly as of 30 September 2022: ETFs suffered heavy net outflows of $4.3bn last week. The outflows were driven by Fixed Income and Commodity exposures, which lost …
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows
Weekly as of 23 September 2022 ETFs suffered net outflows of $3.2bn last week. Equity saw the heaviest net outflows of $1.9bn. Fixed Income and Commodity exposures endured …
Caution: earnings under pressure
Weekly commentary – August 15, 2022 Stocks are rallying as markets believe inflation is waning and the Fed will slow hikes soon. We don’t think the rally is sustainable. Why? We see the Fed hiking rates to levels that will
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows
Weekly as of 20 May 2022 ETFs saw net outflows of $784mn last week, driven by Fixed Income, which suffered $1.6bn of net outflows, and Commodity, which lost $540mn.
Senior Loan Talking Points
Voya Perspectives Series | May 13 – May 19, 2022 The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) returned -0.44% for the seven-day period ended May 19. Although the last two trading sessions were more volatile, in line with broader market
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – as of 29 April 2022
ETFs saw relatively muted net inflows of $471mn last week. Fixed Income posted the strongest net inflows of $858mn while Money Market took …
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – as of 15 April 2022
– ETFs posted net inflows of $1.9bn last week. Equity attracted $1.1bn while Commodity saw $516mn of net inflows. – Fixed Income took in $408mn while Money Market weathered net outflows of $135mn.
Investor demand for loans kicked into a higher gear this week
Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: Following a period of weakness related to geopolitical tension and largely negative broad market sentiment, the U.S. loan market performed in strong fashion this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index
Inflation fears fuel rise in Treasury yields
U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, with inflation breakevens rising to reflect the risk of higher commodity prices due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Spread sectors were mixed, but mostly rallied after initial knee-jerk moves lower.
Rising rates: what to know, what to do
January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth
Rising rates: what to know, what to do
January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth
Rising rates: what to know, what to do
January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth
Fixed Income suffered heavy net outflows
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows ETFs posted $4.5bn of net inflows last week. Flows were largely driven by Equity, which captured a massive $5.9bn, while Commodity took …
What went up…must come down (hopefully)!
I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at
Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.
Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.
How to dismantle a conglomerate.
If you are looking for market volatility to spice up your week then core government bond markets would be a good place to start. After last weeks ‘communication breakdown’ between central banks and investors, and more dovish policy response, that
It’s been a turbulent November.
Market updates: The week saw an increase of cases of the newly identified Omicron variant of Covid-19 observed in South Africa and elsewhere. Though the week cases have been seen across Europe, Asia and in the US, causing fears of
Swapshop.
Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will
UK payrolls point to smooth ending of furlough scheme
Uncertainty surrounding the effect of the end of the UK furlough scheme on unemployment had been top of the Bank of England’s (BoE) list of economic concerns, but last week’s jobs data provided reasons to be optimistic on this front.
Liftoff? EM has already taken off
As U.S. inflation is hitting three-decade highs, market talk has been all about “liftoff:” When will the Federal Reserve and others start raising their policy rates? This is old news in emerging markets (EMs), where many countries have already raised
European markets have been strong
Market updates: At the start of the week, President Biden signed into law the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. He is also set to announce a new US Federal Reserve Chief, which is expected to be either incumbent Jerome Powell or
Communication breakdown.
Bond markets, which have been under considerable pressure recently, saw a very sharp turnaround last week as the US Federal Reserve did no more than expected in the US, while the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, and the European
The winner takes it all.
US equities printed a new high as we end October while bonds remain mired in volatility with yields near their highs for the last 12 months – see chart of the week. Meanwhile, risk markets in fixed income are locked
A lopsided energy transition
Weekly commentary: Surging natural gas and coal prices amid a powerful economic restart have exposed a lopsided transition toward low-carbon power. We still see an orderly transition in the medium term – but with bumps on the way that could
Strong week for global equities
Weekly Economic Perspectives: The Fed is poised to taper asset purchases imminently. Although language in the September meeting minutes maintained some optionality between mid-November and mid-December as start points, we suspect the earlier timeline is more likely. There really is
A farewell to negative yields?
In Credit: US bond yields have stabilsed this quarter after the material sell-off in the first quarter. It has been a different story for yields in Europe, however, which have trended higher. This reflects a heavy supply schedule and speculation
Jolly green giant Gilt.
The ‘excitement’ of an FOMC meeting, shenanigans at Evergrande, revised forecasts from the OECD and the German general election led to a rise in yields last week (see chart of the week). The US Federal Reserve presented a more hawkish
Fed taper looks likely, boosting Treasury yields
U.S. Treasury yields closed higher last week, led by longer maturities. After starting the week lower due to Chinese market fears, rates jumped sharply on Thursday to finish the week about eight basis points …
When a taper is not a taper.
Core government bond markets ended the week with a better tone, even as the European Central Bank announced its intentions to modestly reduce asset purchases, and as the ECB increased forecasts for economic growth and for inflation. The ECB notched
Falling into Fall.
Government bond yields generally moved higher last week; the spectre of a withdrawal of ultraeasy policy conditions remains front and centre of attention. Indeed, we will hear more on this subject perhaps this week from Europe when the European Central
Dimly aware of a certain unease in the air
We borrowed a line from a Pink Floyd song for this week’s title, which seemed to sum up the mood in markets last week. The rise in cases of the delta variant of Covid brings fears of a pause in
The arrival of long expected inflation.
In Credit: Inflation had long been expected to rise – and rise it has! Data released from the US and UK last week showed a jump in prices that exceeded (increased) expectations by some margin. Starting in the US, Consumer
Searching for direction.
In Credit: Government bonds seem to be struggling for direction amid a summer lull and after a period of strong performance. US 10-year yields have fallen from around 1.75% at the end of March 2021 to around 1.29% at the
The threat from inflation
Weekly investment update: Another month, another US inflation report beating market expectations. Headline year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation has gone from 1.1% last November to 4.9% in May. Even though economists knew that base effects meant the rate of
‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.
Quarter one of this year was a miserable experience for the bond market. There was just too much ‘good news’ flowing around the system to contain bond yields. The Biden fiscal push, the successful rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and, of
Steady as she goes…
In credit: We saw some key economic data last week, in what felt like a seasonal lull for a number of European countries given the late May bank holiday and a week of school holidays. In the UK, sterling hit
Can The Fed Stay Patient?
Weekly Economic Commentary: I watched the film “Apollo 13” again recently. For those too young to remember, a mission to the moon that launched 50 years ago almost ended in disaster; working feverishly, ground control was able to bring the
‘Brass in pocket’
In Credit: The upward trend of rising inflation expectations continues and is now at 2.5% at the 10-year point of the curve and 2.8% for two years. The US non-farm payroll / employment sector report released last Friday revealed that
Significant uncertainty in US inflation forecasts
The Weekly Brief: The rise in US economic growth and inflation has been well flagged by markets and economists but uncertainty remains as to the persistence of these pickups. A successful vaccine rollout is enabling a reopening of the economy
Turning up the temperature
Weekly investment update: The risk of the US economy overheating was highlighted months ago, but it was difficult to assess whether the market actually believed it was possible. Recent comments by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have put the topic
Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines
The Weekly Brief: Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines, following President Biden’s recent pledge to cut US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in half by 2030. In total, 58 countries, representing 54% of global GHG emissions, have now communicated a
Podcast: Why invest in inclusive growth?
Market weekly: Being open to an inclusive growth approach goes hand in hand with a focus on long-term performance and contributes to a better climate for doing business and investment. As investment specialist Ramon Esteruelas and ESG research analyst Delphine
Calm after a storm.
There has been a degree more stability or calm in core government markets over the last couple of weeks. This comes after a very difficult start to the year, especially in the US.
Commodities rewired
Oil and industrial metals have rallied since late-2020 on expectations for a swift economic restart, sparking talk of a new commodity “supercycle.” We see a more nuanced outlook – with a divergence across different commodities. The lift for oil from the economic restart is likely to be transitory, while some metals may benefit …
Markets rally on strong data
Strong economic data over the last week in the US, Europe and Asia appears to be confirming the perception among investors that a cyclical recovery is well established. As a result, valuations of risk assets have risen on the view that the pandemic will be overcome this year.
Reflation trade on hold
Valuations of risk assets have marked a pause in the face of a number of headwinds. In our view, valuations remain underpinned by ample central bank liquidity and the prospect, in the US, of further fiscal stimulus.
A pause in the rise
The sell-off in US Treasury bonds reversed over the last week with the 10-year bond yield dropping from its intraday high of 1.75% on 18 March. The decline was driven principally by falling real yields as inflation expectations were mostly stable. There was also a reversal in the recent outperformance of value stocks relative to growth stocks.
A lot of questions, not many answers
Bad news on the health front; volatile economic data; hopes that the US national 4th of July holiday can be celebrated with a BBQ; and further lockdowns, in place or imminent, in Europe. This odd concoction on the anniversary of the Great Lockdown did not keep …
Back to work
As mentioned previously, this trend was borne out of rising inflation expectations and augmented by a nudge higher in real rates. If this latter rate is the key discount rate for risk markets such as equities, it helps explains why this market has been …
