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Caution: earnings under pressure

Caution: earnings under pressure

🕔09:30, 30.Aug 2022

Weekly commentary – August 15, 2022 Stocks are rallying as markets believe inflation is waning and the Fed will slow hikes soon. We don’t think the rally is sustainable. Why? We see the Fed hiking rates to levels that will

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EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows

EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows

🕔08:34, 31.May 2022

Weekly as of 20 May 2022  ETFs saw net outflows of $784mn last week, driven by Fixed Income, which suffered $1.6bn of net outflows, and Commodity, which lost $540mn.

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Senior Loan Talking Points

Senior Loan Talking Points

🕔15:49, 30.May 2022

Voya Perspectives Series | May 13 – May 19, 2022  The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) returned -0.44% for the seven-day period ended May 19. Although the last two trading sessions were more volatile, in line with broader market

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EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – as of 29 April 2022

EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – as of 29 April 2022

🕔15:59, 9.May 2022

ETFs saw relatively muted net inflows of $471mn last week. Fixed Income posted the strongest net inflows of $858mn while Money Market took …

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EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – as of 15 April 2022

EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – as of 15 April 2022

🕔14:28, 27.Apr 2022

– ETFs posted net inflows of $1.9bn last week. Equity attracted $1.1bn while Commodity saw $516mn of net inflows. – Fixed Income took in $408mn while Money Market weathered net outflows of $135mn.

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Investor demand for loans kicked into a higher gear this week

Investor demand for loans kicked into a higher gear this week

🕔08:43, 29.Mar 2022

Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: Following a period of weakness related to geopolitical tension and largely negative broad market sentiment, the U.S. loan market performed in strong fashion this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index

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Inflation fears fuel rise in Treasury yields

Inflation fears fuel rise in Treasury yields

🕔11:01, 10.Mar 2022

U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, with inflation breakevens rising to reflect the risk of higher commodity prices due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Spread sectors were mixed, but mostly rallied after initial knee-jerk moves lower.

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Rising rates: what to know, what to do

Rising rates: what to know, what to do

🕔08:09, 8.Mar 2022

January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth

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Rising rates: what to know, what to do

Rising rates: what to know, what to do

🕔12:21, 3.Mar 2022

January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth

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Rising rates: what to know, what to do

Rising rates: what to know, what to do

🕔15:26, 17.Feb 2022

January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth

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Fixed Income suffered heavy net outflows

Fixed Income suffered heavy net outflows

🕔13:25, 17.Feb 2022

EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows ETFs posted $4.5bn of net inflows last week. Flows were largely driven by Equity, which captured a massive $5.9bn, while Commodity took …

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What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

🕔11:48, 22.Dec 2021

I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at

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Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

🕔09:34, 14.Dec 2021

Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.

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How to dismantle a conglomerate.

How to dismantle a conglomerate.

🕔14:58, 10.Dec 2021

If you are looking for market volatility to spice up your week then core government bond markets would be a good place to start. After last weeks ‘communication breakdown’ between central banks and investors, and more dovish policy response, that

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It’s been a turbulent November.

It’s been a turbulent November.

🕔16:56, 7.Dec 2021

Market updates: The week saw an increase of cases of the newly identified Omicron variant of Covid-19 observed in South Africa and elsewhere. Though the week cases have been seen across Europe, Asia and in the US, causing fears of

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Swapshop.

Swapshop.

🕔10:22, 1.Dec 2021

Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will

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UK payrolls point to smooth ending of furlough scheme

UK payrolls point to smooth ending of furlough scheme

🕔10:12, 30.Nov 2021

Uncertainty surrounding the effect of the end of the UK furlough scheme on unemployment had been top of the Bank of England’s (BoE) list of economic concerns, but last week’s jobs data provided reasons to be optimistic on this front.

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Liftoff? EM has already taken off

Liftoff? EM has already taken off

🕔14:12, 29.Nov 2021

As U.S. inflation is hitting three-decade highs, market talk has been all about “liftoff:” When will the Federal Reserve and others start raising their policy rates? This is old news in emerging markets (EMs), where many countries have already raised

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European markets have been strong

European markets have been strong

🕔13:54, 24.Nov 2021

Market updates: At the start of the week, President Biden signed into law the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. He is also set to announce a new US Federal Reserve Chief, which is expected to be either incumbent Jerome Powell or

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Communication breakdown.

Communication breakdown.

🕔14:21, 16.Nov 2021

Bond markets, which have been under considerable pressure recently, saw a very sharp turnaround last week as the US Federal Reserve did no more than expected in the US, while the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, and the European

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The winner takes it all.

The winner takes it all.

🕔10:42, 9.Nov 2021

US equities printed a new high as we end October while bonds remain mired in volatility with yields near their highs for the last 12 months – see chart of the week. Meanwhile, risk markets in fixed income are locked

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A lopsided energy transition

A lopsided energy transition

🕔12:02, 8.Nov 2021

Weekly commentary: Surging natural gas and coal prices amid a powerful economic restart have exposed a lopsided transition toward low-carbon power. We still see an orderly transition in the medium term – but with bumps on the way that could

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Strong week for global equities

Strong week for global equities

🕔15:38, 28.Oct 2021

Weekly Economic Perspectives:  The Fed is poised to taper asset purchases imminently. Although language in the September meeting minutes maintained some optionality between mid-November and mid-December as start points, we suspect the earlier timeline is more likely. There really is

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A farewell to negative yields?

A farewell to negative yields?

🕔11:30, 8.Oct 2021

In Credit: US bond yields have stabilsed this quarter after the material sell-off in the first quarter. It has been a different story for yields in Europe, however, which have trended higher. This reflects a heavy supply schedule and speculation

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Jolly green giant Gilt.

Jolly green giant Gilt.

🕔11:05, 5.Oct 2021

The ‘excitement’ of an FOMC meeting, shenanigans at Evergrande, revised forecasts from the OECD and the German general election led to a rise in yields last week (see chart of the week). The US Federal Reserve presented a more hawkish

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Fed taper looks likely, boosting Treasury yields

Fed taper looks likely, boosting Treasury yields

🕔14:50, 4.Oct 2021

U.S. Treasury yields closed higher last week, led by longer maturities. After starting the week lower due to Chinese market fears, rates jumped sharply on Thursday to finish the week about eight basis points  …

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When a taper is not a taper.

When a taper is not a taper.

🕔12:58, 21.Sep 2021

Core government bond markets ended the week with a better tone, even as the European Central Bank announced its intentions to modestly reduce asset purchases, and as the ECB increased forecasts for economic growth and for inflation. The ECB notched

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Falling into Fall.

Falling into Fall.

🕔16:01, 14.Sep 2021

Government bond yields generally moved higher last week; the spectre of a withdrawal of ultraeasy policy conditions remains front and centre of attention. Indeed, we will hear more on this subject perhaps this week from Europe when the European Central

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Dimly aware of a certain unease in the air

Dimly aware of a certain unease in the air

🕔15:20, 30.Aug 2021

We borrowed a line from a Pink Floyd song for this week’s title, which seemed to sum up the mood in markets last week. The rise in cases of the delta variant of Covid brings fears of a pause in

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The arrival of long expected inflation.

The arrival of long expected inflation.

🕔13:02, 20.Aug 2021

In Credit: Inflation had long been expected to rise – and rise it has! Data released from the US and UK last week showed a jump in prices that exceeded (increased) expectations by some margin. Starting in the US, Consumer

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Searching for direction.

Searching for direction.

🕔11:45, 17.Aug 2021

In Credit: Government bonds seem to be struggling for direction amid a summer lull and after a period of strong performance. US 10-year yields have fallen from around 1.75% at the end of March 2021 to around 1.29% at the

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The threat from inflation

The threat from inflation

🕔16:30, 23.Jul 2021

Weekly investment update: Another month, another US inflation report beating market expectations. Headline year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation has gone from 1.1% last November to 4.9% in May. Even though economists knew that base effects meant the rate of

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‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

🕔17:01, 21.Jun 2021

Quarter one of this year was a miserable experience for the bond market. There was just too much ‘good news’ flowing around the system to contain bond yields. The Biden fiscal push, the successful rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and, of

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Steady as she goes…

Steady as she goes…

🕔11:54, 14.Jun 2021

In credit: We saw some key economic data last week, in what felt like a seasonal lull for a number of European countries given the late May bank holiday and a week of school holidays. In the UK, sterling hit

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Can The Fed Stay Patient?

Can The Fed Stay Patient?

🕔17:41, 19.May 2021

Weekly Economic Commentary:  I watched the film “Apollo 13” again recently. For those too young to remember, a mission to the moon that launched 50 years ago almost ended in disaster; working feverishly, ground control was able to bring the

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‘Brass in pocket’

‘Brass in pocket’

🕔12:58, 19.May 2021

In Credit: The upward trend of rising inflation expectations continues and is now at 2.5% at the 10-year point of the curve and 2.8% for two years. The US non-farm payroll / employment sector report released last Friday revealed that

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Significant uncertainty in US inflation forecasts

Significant uncertainty in US inflation forecasts

🕔10:01, 19.May 2021

The Weekly Brief: The rise in US economic growth and inflation has been well flagged by markets and economists but uncertainty remains as to the persistence of these pickups. A successful vaccine rollout is enabling a reopening of the economy

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Turning up the temperature

Turning up the temperature

🕔09:31, 12.May 2021

Weekly investment update: The risk of the US economy overheating was highlighted months ago, but it was difficult to assess whether the market actually believed it was possible. Recent comments by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have put the topic

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Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines

Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines

🕔16:30, 5.May 2021

The Weekly Brief: Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines, following President Biden’s recent pledge to cut US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in half by 2030. In total, 58 countries, representing 54% of global GHG emissions, have now communicated a

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Podcast: Why invest in inclusive growth?

Podcast: Why invest in inclusive growth?

🕔10:31, 4.May 2021

Market weekly: Being open to an inclusive growth approach goes hand in hand with a focus on long-term performance and contributes to a better climate for doing business and investment. As investment specialist Ramon Esteruelas and ESG research analyst Delphine

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Calm after a storm.

Calm after a storm.

🕔15:28, 16.Apr 2021

There has been a degree more stability or calm in core government markets over the last couple of weeks. This comes after a very difficult start to the year, especially in the US.

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Commodities rewired

Commodities rewired

🕔14:03, 15.Apr 2021

Oil and industrial metals have rallied since late-2020 on expectations for a swift economic restart, sparking talk of a new commodity “supercycle.” We see a more nuanced outlook – with a divergence across different commodities. The lift for oil from the economic restart is likely to be transitory, while some metals may benefit …

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Markets rally on strong data

Markets rally on strong data

🕔11:38, 12.Apr 2021

Strong economic data over the last week in the US, Europe and Asia appears to be confirming the perception among investors that a cyclical recovery is well established. As a result, valuations of risk assets have risen on the view that the pandemic will be overcome this year.

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Reflation trade on hold

Reflation trade on hold

🕔10:52, 6.Apr 2021

Valuations of risk assets have marked a pause in the face of a number of headwinds. In our view, valuations remain underpinned by ample central bank liquidity and the prospect, in the US, of further fiscal stimulus.

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A pause in the rise

A pause in the rise

🕔12:54, 30.Mar 2021

The sell-off in US Treasury bonds reversed over the last week with the 10-year bond yield dropping from its intraday high of 1.75% on 18 March. The decline was driven principally by falling real yields as inflation expectations were mostly stable. There was also a reversal in the recent outperformance of value stocks relative to growth stocks.

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A lot of questions, not many answers

A lot of questions, not many answers

🕔10:45, 23.Mar 2021

Bad news on the health front; volatile economic data; hopes that the US national 4th of July holiday can be celebrated with a BBQ; and further lockdowns, in place or imminent, in Europe. This odd concoction on the anniversary of the Great Lockdown did not keep …

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Back to work

Back to work

🕔14:48, 19.Mar 2021

As mentioned previously, this trend was borne out of rising inflation expectations and augmented by a nudge higher in real rates. If this latter rate is the key discount rate for risk markets such as equities, it helps explains why this market has been …

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Distinguishing between short and long-term issues

Distinguishing between short and long-term issues

🕔11:50, 16.Mar 2021

Distinguishing between short and long-term issues Weekly investment update Keeping a weekly column like this one going brings home the sense of immediacy that frequently grips financial markets and that can fuel short-term spikes or dips as we have seen

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Downgrading government bonds

Downgrading government bonds

🕔16:28, 25.Feb 2021

Downgrading government bonds  Weekly commentary We broaden our tactical pro-risk stance in light of major developments since the publication of our 2021 outlook in December: the vaccine rollout and up to $2.8 trillion of additional U.S. fiscal spending this year.

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Reflating a bubble

Reflating a bubble

🕔11:18, 19.Feb 2021

It was Presidents Day in the US on 15 February and we imagine ex-President Trump will be celebrating more than most after being acquitted in his second impeachment vote. There was, however, less to celebrate in government bond land.

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